Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
It is interesting to note both the UK and the US have SARS COV 2 hospitalization rate down to 1.3 per 100,000. While lower than earlier, the UK and the US have significantly higher numbers than Germany where SARS COV 2 hospitalization rate is down to 0.2 per 100,000.
Rhinovirus, comprised of species Enterovirus alpharhino, Enterovirus betarhino, Enterovirus cerhino are not as benign as initially thought. Studies in the Netherlands have shown they are just as lethal as flu A with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.00. It is imperative a rhinovirus vaccine be developed ASAP to protect the vulnerable such as older people.
Latest data shows more than 95% of British have capsid antibodies, including more than 90% in the oldest age group. With such high level of capsid antibodies, severe outcomes can be cut down significantly. It's interesting to note spike antibodies do not reduce viral load but capsid antibodies do. So only when capsid antibodies is high can severe outcomes be reduced significantly. Therefore, we can hopefully not have a significant wave in the UK this year.
Today WHO just came out saying SARS COV 2 shot don't need updating. No doubt Trump played a part in this decision considering the US has a lot of influence over WHO. So it looks like they won't update SARS COV 2 shot every year anymore the way they do with flu shot. Saves pharma money but less effective at preventing infection.
Bob, what do you think of this news? IMO it's not going to pay off. Demand for SARS COV 2 shots is down compared to past years. In the UK, unlike past years, only 75+ and nursing home residents plus immunocompromised are offered free SARS COV 2 shots. While SARS COV 2 shots are available for purchase in pharmacies, the cost is about 100 pounds a shot, about 10 times as much as a flu shot. On top of that, mRNA shots have far more side effects compared to inactivated shots. If SARS COV 2 becomes endemic over the next five years, demand for the shot will be even lower.
It is not known what is the intrinsic endemic lethality of SARS COV 2, but based on its biology it should be closest to NL63 which uses the same ACE2 receptor. Unfortunately, no one has thus far measured the lethality of NL63. Considering rhinovirus is found to have the same lethality as flu A, it make sense SARS COV 2 should be quite similar to flu A.
Of course, not all reduction in case numbers is due to reduction in severity. Case count = # of tests multiplied by % of tests testing +. As politicians and the general public continue to lose interest in SARS COV 2, # of tests will continue to drop, which leads to lower case count and therefore lower hospitalizations and deaths counted in official reports. You can see in the graph in the source provided below the deaths are falling quickly despite test positivity rate not having much change.
Thank you, Bob for all your hard work in putting these updates together. 🙏 Glad to see that the levels are currently low.
Low is relative, not absolute.
🙏
Thank you for another detailed and very informative update. Good to see covid dipping down again after rising recently.
It is interesting to note both the UK and the US have SARS COV 2 hospitalization rate down to 1.3 per 100,000. While lower than earlier, the UK and the US have significantly higher numbers than Germany where SARS COV 2 hospitalization rate is down to 0.2 per 100,000.
Sources:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home
https://infektionsradar.gesund.bund.de/en/covid/hospitalizations
Perhaps go and advertise on someone else's blog?
Rhinovirus, comprised of species Enterovirus alpharhino, Enterovirus betarhino, Enterovirus cerhino are not as benign as initially thought. Studies in the Netherlands have shown they are just as lethal as flu A with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.00. It is imperative a rhinovirus vaccine be developed ASAP to protect the vulnerable such as older people.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38249443/
Latest data shows more than 95% of British have capsid antibodies, including more than 90% in the oldest age group. With such high level of capsid antibodies, severe outcomes can be cut down significantly. It's interesting to note spike antibodies do not reduce viral load but capsid antibodies do. So only when capsid antibodies is high can severe outcomes be reduced significantly. Therefore, we can hopefully not have a significant wave in the UK this year.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/epidemiology-of-covid-19-in-england/epidemiology-of-covid-19-in-england-january-2020-to-december-2024
Today WHO just came out saying SARS COV 2 shot don't need updating. No doubt Trump played a part in this decision considering the US has a lot of influence over WHO. So it looks like they won't update SARS COV 2 shot every year anymore the way they do with flu shot. Saves pharma money but less effective at preventing infection.
Source: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/who-advisers-say-current-strains-ok-covid-vaccine-production
Bob, what do you think of this news? IMO it's not going to pay off. Demand for SARS COV 2 shots is down compared to past years. In the UK, unlike past years, only 75+ and nursing home residents plus immunocompromised are offered free SARS COV 2 shots. While SARS COV 2 shots are available for purchase in pharmacies, the cost is about 100 pounds a shot, about 10 times as much as a flu shot. On top of that, mRNA shots have far more side effects compared to inactivated shots. If SARS COV 2 becomes endemic over the next five years, demand for the shot will be even lower.
"Moderna opens UK vaccine manufacturing lab"
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87jx5gnv23o
It is not known what is the intrinsic endemic lethality of SARS COV 2, but based on its biology it should be closest to NL63 which uses the same ACE2 receptor. Unfortunately, no one has thus far measured the lethality of NL63. Considering rhinovirus is found to have the same lethality as flu A, it make sense SARS COV 2 should be quite similar to flu A.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38249443/
Of course, not all reduction in case numbers is due to reduction in severity. Case count = # of tests multiplied by % of tests testing +. As politicians and the general public continue to lose interest in SARS COV 2, # of tests will continue to drop, which leads to lower case count and therefore lower hospitalizations and deaths counted in official reports. You can see in the graph in the source provided below the deaths are falling quickly despite test positivity rate not having much change.
Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklydeaths_testpositivity_00