Covid Situation Report: May 15, 2025
Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction.
This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations.
This week's report covers the latest weekly test positivity rates and hospital admissions data for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. An update on the Spring 2025 Covid booster campaign is also provided including data on coverage for the immunosuppressed.
Summary.
Once again the good news continues with Covid data indicating low levels across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Flu levels continue to fall and are much lower than Covid in all Home Nations.
This means that individuals with Covid-like symptoms are more likely to be suffering from Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) or Rhinovirus rather than Covid.
In England, the Covid test positivity rate decreased this week and remains at low levels. Hospital admissions for Covid also decreased and are at low levels. Flu test positivity and hospital admissions continued to fall and are at very low levels, well below those for Covid. Finally, the test positivity rate for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) fell and is now at a moderate level of activity.
In Scotland, Covid hospital admissions remain at very low levels. However, there has been a slight increase both in beds occupied by patients with Covid and wastewater monitoring levels although they also remain relatively low. Flu admissions are now at relatively low levels and lower than for Covid.
This week Covid hospital admissions in Wales continued to remain low.
In Northern Ireland, Some Covid indicators increased very slightly but activity remained at a low levels Flu activity fell to low levels and RSV is at baseline activity levels.
The NHS Spring 2025 Covid Booster campaign opened on April 1 and will run until June 17, 2025. In England, just under 3.3 million doses have been given to date, with 47% of those aged 75 years and older vaccinated. At present, coverage in Scotland and Wales is progressing but remains lower than for England.
Vaccine coverage for the immunosuppressed, individuals living in the most deprived areas, and ethnic minorities is low.
Those eligible for free vaccinations on the NHS are:
adults aged 75 years and over;
residents in a care home for older adults; and
individuals aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed.
Bookings for Spring 2025 booster vaccinations can be made at the following link:
A reminder that for individuals not covered by the NHS, Covid and Flu vaccinations may be obtainable for a fee at local pharmacies.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the immunocompromised. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England.
This section starts with the latest available data on positivity rates for primary respiratory infections in England. It is important to understand that positivity differs from prevalence, which refers to the overall percentage of COVID-19 in the general population. Appendix 1 provides a more detailed explanation of the difference and why positivity rates are a useful indicator of trends in Covid infection levels.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken, including those outside of hospitals, and is mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics.
The chart shows a decrease to the test positivity rate which is now below the baseline threshold of activity indicating a relatively low level of risk.
The following chart displays the test positivity rates for the main respiratory illnesses in England, covering Flu, Covid, RSV, and Rhinovirus. This positivity rate is only for tests carried out in hospital so differs slightly from the previous chart. However, taking this approach allows a fair comparison between the different viruses.
The Covid positivity rate was unchanged this week and continues to remain low. The Flu rate also remained stable and is well below those of Covid. RSV rates continue at very low levels, whereas Rhinovirus rates remains at a moderately high level.
The chances are that if you have Covid-like symptoms you are more likely to be suffering from Rhinovirus rather than RSV or Covid.
The next chart in this section shows weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people in England for the main respiratory diseases.
Over the past week, weekly hospital admission rates for Covid decreased very slightly and remained low and below baseline activity levels. Meanwhile, admission rates for Flu continued to fall from their recent peak and are now well below Covid admission levels. Admissions for RSV are are no longer provided.
Finally, although press coverage about the risk of Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) has declined, UKHSA continue to report on its progress. The following chart shows the trend in the test positivity rate hMPV in hospital patients admitted with respiratory illness in England for the past two years.
Human metapneumovirus (hMPV), a virus with symptoms similar to Flu, is a seasonal virus that usually peaks in early January and then falls in February. This week test positivity reduced to 2,8 %, indicating that this years wave could be over.
Scotland weekly hospital admissions and bed occupancy
Scotland continues to publish weekly data on hospital admissions and bed occupancy for Covid as well as wastewater monitoring data. The dashboard for Scotland’s data can be accessed here.
The following panel chart shows the most recent data for weekly Covid hospital admissions depicted in blue, together with the number of beds occupied by Covid patients, shown in orange. The number of occupied beds represent patients being treated for Covid as well as those being treated with Covid.
This week Covid admissions remained stable and at low levels. However, the number of beds occupied by patients testing positive for Covid has increased in the past two weeks. Since these include both patients being treated for Covid and those being treated for other reasons this may be an early sign of increasing levels of Covid in hospitals and in the community, albeit from low levels.
Scotland remains the only home nation that is monitoring Covid levels using wastewater sampling and the following chart shows the seven day average of Covid levels found up to May 9, 2025.
The wastewater sampling data shows that the high Covid levels observed at the start of August 2024 dropped significantly to very low levels in the first 3 months of 2025. However, there have been slight increases in the past few weeks although levels remain relatively low.
Finally, the following chart compares the weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Scotland. Note that Public Health Scotland have advised that this week's figures are likely to be an under report due to a data processing issue since May 3, 2025.
The chart shows that flu-related emergency hospital admissions rose sharply in December and Public Health Scotland reported that this reached a record high of 1606 admissions for the week ending Dec 29. This surge placed a considerable burden on hospitals. However, Flu admissions have fallen significantly in the past weeks and are now at low levels, below those for Covid.
Wales Covid hospital admissions.
The following chart provides the trend for weekly hospital admissions in Wales up to week ending May 11, 2025.
This week, hospital admissions for Covid in Wales have again fallen and are now at their lowest level in over two years.
The following chart illustrates that hospital admissions for flu in Wales which were high during December and January have now fallen significantly and are also at very low levels.
Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.
Recently Public Health Northern Ireland began issuing a combined surveillance report on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19 to offer a comprehensive view of the epidemiology of these infections within Northern Ireland. The report, published every Thursday, can be accessed here.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses — Flu, RSV, and Covid.
The chart shows that Covid levels, depicted in purple, remained low this week despite a slight increase. Positivity rates for Flu, shown in green, have fallen from the winter peak and are now at relatively low levels.
The chart below presents the weekly count of hospital admissions for the main respiratory illnesses where the infection was contracted in the community, thereby excluding patients who contracted Covid while in hospital. It is important to note that the hospital admissions data for other home nations include patients who contracted infections in the hospital, making them not directly comparable to the data from Northern Ireland.
The chart shows that for most of 2024, the bulk of hospital admissions for respiratory infections stemmed from Covid. However, since November hospital admissions for Covid, indicated in purple, have been low.
Meanwhile, hospital admissions for the Flu, depicted in blue, increased significantly in December. However, Flu admissions have fallen from the December peak and are now low, below those for Covid.
Spring 2025 Covid Booster Campaign
The NHS Spring 2025 Covid Booster campaign opened on April 1 and will run until June 17, 2025. Those eligible are older people in care homes, individuals 75 years and older, the immunosuppressed aged 6 months and over.
The data in this section is only for NHS vaccinations and does not include privately administered doses.
The first chart in this section compares vaccine coverage for those aged 75 years and older in the three Home Nations where data is published. The date of the latest available data is in parenthesis after each Home Nations name.
The following chart shows the number of Covid vaccinations given by week for each of the booster campaigns in England.
The Spring 2025 booster campaign is progressing well with 3,274,447 doses administered in England to date. This is comparable with previous campaigns.
Further detail is available for England and the following table shows the progress for those aged 75 years and older, people in care homes, and individuals aged between 6 months and 74 years old that are immunosuppressed.
The table clearly shows that although coverage for those in care homes is progressing well, individuals under the age of 75 years who are immunosuppressed have low coverage.
Data on booster coverage for those eligible is also available by deprivation and ethnicity and the next chart shows coverage by area of deprivation up until the end of April .
The chart shows that people living in the most deprived areas have a significantly lower coverage than those living in the least deprived areas.
The final chart in this section shows booster coverage by ethnicity for those eligible.
The chart clearly shows the large ethnic disparities in booster coverage for those eligible.
In conclusion
Although the amount of data currently being published has fallen, the information available for England show that Covid levels are at relatively low levels and lower than Flu. Recent data also indicates that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also at low levels of Covid.
The Spring 2025 booster campaign has started and by the end of the third week just under 47% of those aged 75 years and older had been vaccinated in England. Immunosuppressed individuals have low booster coverage and their are significant disparities amongst ethnic groups and across deprivation levels.
Across all Home Nations, Flu levels are now at low levels. The Winter peak is over.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence
Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.
Test positivity rates, while not directly estimating the number of Covid infections in the general population, can be a valuable indicator of the infection trend. The panel chart below compares the weekly test positivity rate among hospital patients with respiratory symptoms to the prevalence of Covid in the general population, as reported in the Winter Infection Survey.
The chart shows that the weekly test positivity rates for patients with symptoms of respiratory infections follows the same pattern as the prevalence for Covid reported by the Winter Infection Survey. Since the Winter Infection Survey is based on a representative sample of the general population this supports using test positivity as a useful proxy for infection trends. However it is not possible to use test positivity to estimate prevalence.
Thank you, Bob for all your hard work in putting these updates together. 🙏 Glad to see that the levels are currently low.
🙏