Thanks for the effort, but it does not account for the evolving COVID-19 variant strains, many of which are swirling around in particularly more dense populations, including the willfully unvaxxed, and the now well known sequestration capacity of COVID. Thus, many of us unknowingly harbor virus and this may account for LONG COVID.
My aim in these articles is to explain the general concepts behind the S-I-R model rather than faithfully model Covid in all its detail.
I deliberately chose the original Covid strain as in the next series of articles I want to include Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) in the model allowing me to show how control policies were modelled at the start of the Covid outbreak before any vaccines were available or there was any immunity through infection.
Initially, I considered including a section in this article presenting the results of the model for the evolving Covid variants. However, I felt that the article was becoming too lengthy. Additionally, the present version of the model assumes a completely susceptible population with no immunity from vaccination or previous infection, which would not accurately represent the situation when most of these variants emerged. Finally, the interaction between dense populations and the evolution of Covid variants is complex and, I believe, not yet fully understood.
One question for you, as I am not sure that I understand your comment regarding Long Covid. Are you saying that individuals suffering from Long Covid can infect other susceptible people and should be included in the S-I-R model?
Yes, and thanks for that, but don't we need to highlight this aspect of the ongoing COVID-19 nightmare, which I continue to endure 5 yrs. after my initial infection???
Thanks for the effort, but it does not account for the evolving COVID-19 variant strains, many of which are swirling around in particularly more dense populations, including the willfully unvaxxed, and the now well known sequestration capacity of COVID. Thus, many of us unknowingly harbor virus and this may account for LONG COVID.
Greeley -- Thanks for the feedback.
My aim in these articles is to explain the general concepts behind the S-I-R model rather than faithfully model Covid in all its detail.
I deliberately chose the original Covid strain as in the next series of articles I want to include Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) in the model allowing me to show how control policies were modelled at the start of the Covid outbreak before any vaccines were available or there was any immunity through infection.
Initially, I considered including a section in this article presenting the results of the model for the evolving Covid variants. However, I felt that the article was becoming too lengthy. Additionally, the present version of the model assumes a completely susceptible population with no immunity from vaccination or previous infection, which would not accurately represent the situation when most of these variants emerged. Finally, the interaction between dense populations and the evolution of Covid variants is complex and, I believe, not yet fully understood.
One question for you, as I am not sure that I understand your comment regarding Long Covid. Are you saying that individuals suffering from Long Covid can infect other susceptible people and should be included in the S-I-R model?
Maybe too difficult to model, given the number and speed of variant change, variable immunity evasion, variable ACE2 affinity etc. - e.g.:
https://bsky.app/profile/ryanhisner.bsky.social/post/3lefm4hkxc22r
Yes, and thanks for that, but don't we need to highlight this aspect of the ongoing COVID-19 nightmare, which I continue to endure 5 yrs. after my initial infection???