Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Just to note that American medical expert Eric Topol has just posted on his substack a long conversation with Harvard based air-quality researcher Joshua Allen. Covid was a turning point and though the issues go wider than viruses, it is all highly relevant to us here in the UK it seems to me.
You might be surprised to learn that I partly attribute my getting covid, probably from a contact on 24th August, to Christina Pagel referring to your report that the wave was decreasing. I stupidly took my guard down. I am unconvinced that your indicator of hospital testing in any way reflects what may be swirling around ‘in public’. Listen to the coughing. Listen to what people say about others having or just having had covid. Listen to the numbers who say they have just had a cough or cold but have no idea if it is covid. Any reports on current variant(s) symptoms would be worth stating. Sample pharmacies or pharmacy suppliers on test purchases. Please put your caveat(s) up front. Waste testing? European rates? People returning from holiday? It would be more honest and scientific to state what we do not now know. Even the term ‘wave’ requires definition and carefully usage.
Tim -- Sorry to hear that you have Covid. I try to be balanced in my reporting and will be clearer in future that decreasing levels do not mean zero levels of Covid.
Concerning the value of hospital testing and admissions I think that they are a reasonable proxy for Covid levels in the general population. Back when we had the Winter Infection Survey (which provides the best measure of prevalence in the general population) I compared the trend for prevalence with the trend for hospital admissions in England. Admissions followed the same trend as prevalence albeit offset by 7 days. I have included this analysis in this weeks situation report so you can judge for yourself.
Thanks for the update. Even though SARS coronavirus type 2 is an obsession for the time being, as a data researcher I find the topic very interesting. After some time SARS coronavirus type 2 data will get lumped with earlier coronavirus 229E, OC43, HKU1, NL63. But for now it gets its own data reports. Enjoy it while it lasts.
🙏
Thanks again Bob.
Just to note that American medical expert Eric Topol has just posted on his substack a long conversation with Harvard based air-quality researcher Joshua Allen. Covid was a turning point and though the issues go wider than viruses, it is all highly relevant to us here in the UK it seems to me.
You might be surprised to learn that I partly attribute my getting covid, probably from a contact on 24th August, to Christina Pagel referring to your report that the wave was decreasing. I stupidly took my guard down. I am unconvinced that your indicator of hospital testing in any way reflects what may be swirling around ‘in public’. Listen to the coughing. Listen to what people say about others having or just having had covid. Listen to the numbers who say they have just had a cough or cold but have no idea if it is covid. Any reports on current variant(s) symptoms would be worth stating. Sample pharmacies or pharmacy suppliers on test purchases. Please put your caveat(s) up front. Waste testing? European rates? People returning from holiday? It would be more honest and scientific to state what we do not now know. Even the term ‘wave’ requires definition and carefully usage.
Tim -- Sorry to hear that you have Covid. I try to be balanced in my reporting and will be clearer in future that decreasing levels do not mean zero levels of Covid.
Concerning the value of hospital testing and admissions I think that they are a reasonable proxy for Covid levels in the general population. Back when we had the Winter Infection Survey (which provides the best measure of prevalence in the general population) I compared the trend for prevalence with the trend for hospital admissions in England. Admissions followed the same trend as prevalence albeit offset by 7 days. I have included this analysis in this weeks situation report so you can judge for yourself.
Thanks for the update. Even though SARS coronavirus type 2 is an obsession for the time being, as a data researcher I find the topic very interesting. After some time SARS coronavirus type 2 data will get lumped with earlier coronavirus 229E, OC43, HKU1, NL63. But for now it gets its own data reports. Enjoy it while it lasts.