Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Very many thanks for continuing with your work on this. I really appreciate it. Best wishes from very hot Liverpool (temp 29.7 C in my bedroom!), Maggie W.
UK hospitalization rate from SARS coronavirus type 2 remain significantly higher than Germany where it is 0.1 per 100,000 compared to 1.8 per 100,000 in the UK. In other words, for every person hospitalized in Germany, 18 people are hospitalized in the UK. One reason could be people in the UK are far less healthy compared to people in Germany.
RFK Jr announced today placebo trials are required for approval of further SARS coronavirus type 2 shots. Looks like the fall booster campaign in the UK could be in danger because the UK only uses Pfizer shots imported from the US. What do you make of this, Bob?
Since leaving the EU, vaccines in the UK are approved by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) so will not be impacted by any changes to the USA approval process.
The MHRA has two main approval processes -- national (where all approval steps are done by the MHRA) and international recognition agreements (where approval is first done in another country and final approval is made by the MHRA).
Almost all of the Covid vaccines used in the UK (including those used for the Spring 2025 campaign) were approved by the MHRA through the international route based on approval first given by the European (EU) Medicines Agency.
I suppose if the SARS coronavirus type 2 shots are not going to be updated again to match strain, the older formulations would still be used for the fall boosters. They don't work so well in preventing infections but will still be great at preventing severe complications such as hospitalizations or deaths.
"Among 48 210 employees, COVID-19 occurred in 2462 (5.1%) during the 17 weeks of observation. In multivariable analysis, the 2023–2024 formula vaccinated state was associated with a significantly lower risk of COVID-19 before the JN.1 lineage became dominant (hazard ratio = .58; 95% confidence interval [CI] = .49–.68; P < .001), and lower risk but one that did not reach statistical significance after (hazard ratio = .81; 95% CI = .65–1.01; P = .06). Estimated vaccine effectiveness was 42% (95% CI = 32–51) before the JN.1 lineage became dominant, and 19% (95% CI = −1–35) after."
Interesting video from Dr Philip McMillan. In hindsight, it might have been better had the UK government administered ivermectin pills rather than severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 shots. It's worth a watch.
Interestingly, despite being historically higher, hospitalization rate in the US has already dropped lower than the UK at 1.4 per 100,000 compared to 1.8 per 100,000. This could mean the UK's policy of twice yearly boosting for the elderly may be more harmful than helpful. The law of diminishing marginal return. If boosters are taken too frequently, it may result in negative efficacy and increased hospitalizations.
People in Scotland and Wales tend to be far more rebellious than people in England. As you pointed out, vaccination rate in Scotland and Wales are relatively low, less than half of England. And it kinda makes sense. Historically, Scotland and Wales rebelled against English rule.
Now that more than 95% of adults have nucleocapsid antibodies from past infection, this year's summer wave should in theory be expected to be tiny compared to last year. Nucleocapsid antibodies do nothing to prevent infection but in the event of an infection they reduce viral load and limit disease severity, which results in fewer hospitalizations and deaths.
Once again, thanks for the weekly update. Much appreciated.
Very many thanks for continuing with your work on this. I really appreciate it. Best wishes from very hot Liverpool (temp 29.7 C in my bedroom!), Maggie W.
🙏
Thanks Bob 👍
Thank you for another meticulous update.
Thanks again for the information.
UK hospitalization rate from SARS coronavirus type 2 remain significantly higher than Germany where it is 0.1 per 100,000 compared to 1.8 per 100,000 in the UK. In other words, for every person hospitalized in Germany, 18 people are hospitalized in the UK. One reason could be people in the UK are far less healthy compared to people in Germany.
Source: https://infektionsradar.gesund.bund.de/en/covid/hospitalizations
SARS coronavirus type 2 rules!
RFK Jr announced today placebo trials are required for approval of further SARS coronavirus type 2 shots. Looks like the fall booster campaign in the UK could be in danger because the UK only uses Pfizer shots imported from the US. What do you make of this, Bob?
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/us/rfk-jr-vaccine-safety-placebos-covid.html
SARS coronavirus type 2 rules!
Since leaving the EU, vaccines in the UK are approved by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) so will not be impacted by any changes to the USA approval process.
The MHRA has two main approval processes -- national (where all approval steps are done by the MHRA) and international recognition agreements (where approval is first done in another country and final approval is made by the MHRA).
Almost all of the Covid vaccines used in the UK (including those used for the Spring 2025 campaign) were approved by the MHRA through the international route based on approval first given by the European (EU) Medicines Agency.
I suppose if the SARS coronavirus type 2 shots are not going to be updated again to match strain, the older formulations would still be used for the fall boosters. They don't work so well in preventing infections but will still be great at preventing severe complications such as hospitalizations or deaths.
"Among 48 210 employees, COVID-19 occurred in 2462 (5.1%) during the 17 weeks of observation. In multivariable analysis, the 2023–2024 formula vaccinated state was associated with a significantly lower risk of COVID-19 before the JN.1 lineage became dominant (hazard ratio = .58; 95% confidence interval [CI] = .49–.68; P < .001), and lower risk but one that did not reach statistical significance after (hazard ratio = .81; 95% CI = .65–1.01; P = .06). Estimated vaccine effectiveness was 42% (95% CI = 32–51) before the JN.1 lineage became dominant, and 19% (95% CI = −1–35) after."
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/79/2/405/7625220
SARS coronavirus type 2 rules!
Interesting video from Dr Philip McMillan. In hindsight, it might have been better had the UK government administered ivermectin pills rather than severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 shots. It's worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1v_5tagUpM
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 rules!
Please don't post links to dodgy youtube videos on here. It's important that we stick to peer-reviewed science.
Interestingly, despite being historically higher, hospitalization rate in the US has already dropped lower than the UK at 1.4 per 100,000 compared to 1.8 per 100,000. This could mean the UK's policy of twice yearly boosting for the elderly may be more harmful than helpful. The law of diminishing marginal return. If boosters are taken too frequently, it may result in negative efficacy and increased hospitalizations.
Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home
SARS coronavirus type 2 rules!
What you're posting is bollocks. Please stop.
People in Scotland and Wales tend to be far more rebellious than people in England. As you pointed out, vaccination rate in Scotland and Wales are relatively low, less than half of England. And it kinda makes sense. Historically, Scotland and Wales rebelled against English rule.
SARS coronavirus type 2 rules!
Now that more than 95% of adults have nucleocapsid antibodies from past infection, this year's summer wave should in theory be expected to be tiny compared to last year. Nucleocapsid antibodies do nothing to prevent infection but in the event of an infection they reduce viral load and limit disease severity, which results in fewer hospitalizations and deaths.
Once again, thanks for the weekly update. Much appreciated.
SARS coronavirus type 2 rules!