Covid Situation Report: Jul 3, 2025
Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction.
This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.
This week's report covers the latest weekly test positivity rates for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland and Wales. An short update on the UK’s Spring 2025 Covid booster campaign is given.
The report also provides an update on Covid levels in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific regions. Finally, Covid activity in selected European countries and North America is covered.
Summary.
This week the good news continues with all Covid data indicating low levels across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
In England, Covid test positivity decreased slightly this week and remains at relatively low levels.
In Scotland, hospital admissions fell slightly and remained at low levels. Covid levels detected in wastewater also fell and are at relatively low levels.
This week Covid hospital admissions in Wales remained relatively low, whereas admissions for Flu and RSV have virtually stopped.
In the past two weeks in Northern Ireland, Covid activity decreased slightly across some surveillance indicators, while admissions and occupancy remained stable
Recently, the WHO declared NB.1.8.1 a variant under monitoring but assessed the risk to public health as low. This was because although it has a slight growth advantage over other variants circulating, there was no evidence it was a more severe illness.
Recently, the WHO have declared NB.1.8.1 and XFG as variants under monitoring due to reported increases in cases and hospitalisations in some countries which have the highest prevalence of these variants.
NB 1.8.1 has become dominant in many countries across South-East Asia and has been linked to a rise in Covid activity in regions such as Hong Kong and Singapore. However, Covid activity in these countries has peaked and is now falling.
Covid activity in Europe and North America (USA and Canada) remains low and there are no signs of any significant increases in Covid activity in these regions at the moment.
The Spring 2025 booster campaign has now closed for all Home Nations. In England 60.3% of those aged 75 years and older were vaccinated.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the immunocompromised. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England.
Note that presently the UKHSA National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report is released every two weeks. Consequently, this section will not be updated next week.
This section starts with the latest available data on positivity rates for primary respiratory infections in England. It is important to understand that positivity differs from prevalence, which refers to the overall percentage of COVID-19 in the general population. Appendix 1 provides a more detailed explanation of the difference and why positivity rates are a useful indicator of trends in Covid infection levels.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken, including those outside of hospitals, and is mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics.
The chart shows that the test positivity rate has fallen over the past week and and is now within the baseline threshold of activity. This indicates a relatively low level of risk.
The next chart in this section shows weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people in England for the main respiratory diseases.
Over the past two weeks, weekly hospital admission rates for Covid have fallen and remain below baseline activity levels. Admissions for RSV and Flu are are no longer provided.
Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity
Scotland continues to publish weekly data on hospital admissions and bed occupancy for Covid as well as wastewater monitoring data. The dashboard for Scotland’s data can be accessed here.
The following panel chart presents the most recent data for weekly Covid test positivity shown in red, Covid levels in wastewater in blue, and Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange.
These three indicators of Covid activity show that the steady increase seen over the past few months has stopped, and there are early signs that Covid levels are starting to fall.
Wales Covid hospital admissions.
The following chart provides the trend for weekly hospital admissions in Wales up to week ending Jun 29 2025.
Last month hospital admissions for Covid in Wales fell to their lowest level in over two years. However, they have now returned to slightly higher levels but are still relatively low.
This week there was one hospital admission for Flu and none for RSV.
Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.
Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly surveillance report on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19 providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.
Note that over the summer period the Northern Ireland surveillance report is only released every two weeks. Consequently, this section will not be updated next week.
Flu and RSV activity remained low and stable over the past two weeks, circulating at baseline levels. Covid activity decreased slightly across some surveillance indicators, while admissions and occupancy remained stable.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses — Flu, RSV, and Covid and Rhinovirus. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.
The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate, depicted in purple, has stabilised over the past two weeks indicating that the recent increase in Covid activity has stopped. Positivity rates for Flu, shown in green, have fallen from the winter peak and are now at very low levels.
The chart below presents the weekly count of hospital admissions for the main respiratory illnesses where the infection was contracted in the community, thereby excluding patients who contracted Covid while in hospital.
The chart shows that for most of 2024, the bulk of hospital admissions for respiratory infections stemmed from Covid, indicated in purple. Since November 2024 hospital admissions for Covid have been low; however, their has been a recent slow increase in the past few weeks which has now plateaued.
Spring 2025 Covid Booster Campaign
The NHS Spring 2025 Covid Booster campaign in England opened on April 1 and closed on June 17, 2025. The campaigns in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland closed on June 30, 2025.
Those eligible for all Home Nations are older people in care homes, individuals 75 years and older, the immunosuppressed aged 6 months and over. The data in this section is only for NHS vaccinations and does not include privately administered doses.
The follow chart compares vaccine coverage for those aged 75 years and older for each of the Home Nations. The date of the latest available data is in parenthesis after the Home Nations name.
The table chart shows that Scotland has a highest coverage for those aged 75 years while Northern Ireland remains the lowest.
Recent Variants Update
Recently, the WHO declared NB.1.8.1 a variant under monitoring but assessed the risk to public health as low. This was because although it has a slight growth advantage over other variants circulating, there was no evidence it was a more severe illness.
The NB.1.8.1 variant has become dominant in many countries across South-East Asia and has been linked to a rise in Covid activity in regions such as Hong Kong and Singapore. However, Covid activity in these countries has peaked and is now falling.
On June 25, the XFG variant was also classified as a variant under monitoring by the WHO. In their risk evaluation the WHO stated that the risk level is low, noting that:
XFG is growing rapidly compared to co-circulating variants globally. However, XFG exhibits only marginal additional immune evasion over LP.8.1. While there are reported increases in cases and hospitalizations in some of the countries which have the highest proportion of XFG there are no reports to suggest that the associated disease severity is higher when compared to other circulating variants.
Covid levels in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) designated the variant NB.1.8.1 (sometimes called Nimbus) a variant under monitoring on May 23, 2025. A reminder that in their NB.1.8.1 Risk Evaluation Report they concluded that the present global health risk was low but uncertain. In reaching this conclusion the report stated that:
NB.1.8.1 is growing rapidly compared to co-circulating variants. However, NB.1.8.1 exhibits only marginal additional immune evasion over LP.8.1. While there are reported increases in cases and hospitalizations in some of the countries, which have the highest proportion of NB.1.8.1, there are no reports to suggest that the associated disease severity is higher as compared to other circulating variants.
The report also noted that ‘Currently approved COVID-19 vaccines are expected to remain effective to this variant against symptomatic and severe disease.’
The following panel chart shows the latest prevalence data for the NB.1.8.1 variant across a number of countries. The grey bars indicates when data is not yet available.
It is important to note that countries use different methods to sequence variants and are therefore not directly comparable. For example, Hong Kong sequences samples from wastewater monitoring whereas New Zealand sequences positive test samples. Also there is a low number of samples sequenced making the numbers uncertain.
Despite these caveats, it can be seen that NB.1.8.1 variant remains the dominant variant in many South East Asian and Western Pacific countries.
But what was the impact of these increased levels of NB1.8.1 on Covid activity in these countries?
Data from Hong Kong provides a comprehensive picture available of the impact of NB.1.8.1 on Covid activity and the following panel chart shows the recent trend for Covid test positivity, Covid levels in wastewater, and the impact on health as measured by the consultation rate for Covid in out-patient clinics.
The charts indicate that NB.1.8.1 drove a significant increase in Covid activity resulting in an impact on health. However, the recent peak in Covid activity is over as these key indicators continue to fall rapidly.
New Zealand also publishes a wide range of Covid metrics and the next panel chart shows the data for cases, levels in wastewater sampling, and hospital admissions since the start of 2024. This shows a mixed picture but, unlike Hong Kong, levels are much lower than previous peaks for these indicators.
The Covid cases per week data is up to week ending June 29 and this most recent data shows a slight fall in the past week. Weekly hospital admissions are up to June 15 are also fell this week. Covid levels in wastewater are available up to June 15 and appear to be levelling off.
Covid Levels in Europe and North America.
Newspaper reports across Europe and in the USA have highlighted that the new variants XFG and NB.1.8.1 have been detected in these regions leading to concerns that there may be a new wave of Covid activity over the summer months. This section looks at the latest data available on NB.1.8.1 levels and Covid activity in Europe and North America. At present Covid activity in these regions remains low with no signs of a summer wave.
At present, the prevalence of NB.1.8,1 is low but increasing in Europe. The latest report from the European Respiratory Virus Surveillance Summary found that the most common variants from the six countries reporting data remained LP.8.1 (29%) and BA.2.86 (20%) for the two weeks ending June 20. However, the NB.1.8.1 variant had increased to 12% of the tests sequenced during this period from 2% in the preceding two weeks.
Once again, it is important to note that the number of tests sequenced is low and these estimates have a wide range of uncertainty.
The following chart shows the latest levels of Covid as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.
Most countries have seen Covid activity fall slightly as measured by wastewater levels and all countries remain low at historically low levels across at the moment.
Despite media reports of the new variants XFG and NB.1.8.1 in the USA, Covid activity remains historically low as measured by a number of key indicators. The following panel chart presents the recent trend in the USA for Covid test positivity, Covid levels in wastewater, and the impact on health as measured by the consultation rate for hospital admission rate (per 100,000) for Covid.
Data for wastewater monitoring is also available at a more granular level and the following panel chart shows the level of Covid detected in wastewater by major region.
Covid levels in wastewater continue at very low levels across all regions of the USA.
Finally, the following chart shows that Covid activity in Canada as measured in wastewater are also low.
In conclusion
Although the amount of data currently being published has fallen, the information available for England show that Covid levels are at relatively low levels. Recent data also indicates that Scotland and Wales are also at low levels of Covid. After a recent slight increase, Covid activity in Northern Ireland has stabilised and remains at relatively low levels.
The WHO declared NB.1.8.1 a variant under monitoring, but assessed the present risk to public health as low. This was because although it has a slight growth advantage over other variants circulating, there was no evidence that it was a more severe illness.
Singapore and Hong Kong have recently seen significant increases in Covid activity driven by the NB.1.8.1 variant but they have peaked and are now falling fast.
Covid activity in Europe and the USA is relatively low and there are no signs of any significant increases in Covid activity in these regions at the moment.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence
Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.
Test positivity rates, while not directly estimating the number of Covid infections in the general population, can be a valuable indicator of the infection trend. The panel chart below compares the weekly test positivity rate among hospital patients with respiratory symptoms to the prevalence of Covid in the general population, as reported in the Winter Infection Survey.
The chart shows that the weekly test positivity rates for patients with symptoms of respiratory infections follows the same pattern as the prevalence for Covid reported by the Winter Infection Survey. Since the Winter Infection Survey is based on a representative sample of the general population this supports using test positivity as a useful proxy for infection trends. However it is not possible to use test positivity to estimate prevalence.
Thanks Bob, very useful 👍. However, I don’t understand the bit in the summary that states, “in England, Covid test positivity increased slightly this week but remains at relatively low levels” when the graph appears to show it has fallen. Please could you explain?
Thank you, again extremely helpful. Covering Europe and indeed global is really useful. Explanation of variants again globally is excellent.