Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Excellent work. You do a better report than the ones I sometimes publish. I prefer to read it on the website rather than in email because of the hover over 'tooltips' in the online versions of the graphs.
In email, with my color vision, I can't tell which line is which. In some graphs I see 3 bluish lines and one dark line that could be red. This is a routine problem with thin colored lines.
I have been using the weekly flu & COVID report taking the changes in hospitalisation and applying those to the last of the ONS prevalence/incidence numbers to estimate current prevalence/incidence. Do you find that method to be of interest?
(So if there were 4 per 100,000 at the time of the ONS data & there are now 3.5 per 100,000, I would adjust the 0.7% prevalence by 3.5/4)
The last incidence of 73 in 100,000 implies that living an average life means having roughly a 1 in 1,350 risk of catching COVID each day which is about an average of once every 4 years. At the peak I think it was once every 4 months or so. Once every 4 years, seems to me to be several times more common than flu.
During the last 4 years what I always wanted was an estimate of risk of ordinary activities such as shopping or travel. I had to invent my own estimates as no one seemed to produce this. I cobbled together data and excerpts from studies, but never really solved this.
Now there isn't really much data to build on. The risk is obviously much lower than it had been, and is now harder to calculate due to lack of data.
Amusing math, it looks like COVID currently is about ten times less than at its peak, but about 10 times higher than during lockdown. (Not sure of the ratios there, I may be cheating.)
Excellent work. You do a better report than the ones I sometimes publish. I prefer to read it on the website rather than in email because of the hover over 'tooltips' in the online versions of the graphs.
In email, with my color vision, I can't tell which line is which. In some graphs I see 3 bluish lines and one dark line that could be red. This is a routine problem with thin colored lines.
I have been using the weekly flu & COVID report taking the changes in hospitalisation and applying those to the last of the ONS prevalence/incidence numbers to estimate current prevalence/incidence. Do you find that method to be of interest?
(So if there were 4 per 100,000 at the time of the ONS data & there are now 3.5 per 100,000, I would adjust the 0.7% prevalence by 3.5/4)
The last incidence of 73 in 100,000 implies that living an average life means having roughly a 1 in 1,350 risk of catching COVID each day which is about an average of once every 4 years. At the peak I think it was once every 4 months or so. Once every 4 years, seems to me to be several times more common than flu.
During the last 4 years what I always wanted was an estimate of risk of ordinary activities such as shopping or travel. I had to invent my own estimates as no one seemed to produce this. I cobbled together data and excerpts from studies, but never really solved this.
Now there isn't really much data to build on. The risk is obviously much lower than it had been, and is now harder to calculate due to lack of data.
Amusing math, it looks like COVID currently is about ten times less than at its peak, but about 10 times higher than during lockdown. (Not sure of the ratios there, I may be cheating.)