Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Fortunately this weeks Covid Tests positivity rate saw a slight decrease which will hopefully continue as we move in to warmer weather with less people gathering in side and more vulnerable people getting vaccinated.
Betacoronavirus pandemicum is expected to peak in August as it usually does but this year I think because of high population immunity the peak will be much smaller than last year.
It's not unusual for a highly vaccinated population to have negative effectiveness. In fact, the UK SIREN HCW cohort study has found negative effectiveness of the Betacoronavirus pandemicum shot in the HCW cohort.
"During both winter periods included in our analysis, there were strong patient-facing workforce vaccination drives, and despite this, we found peak PCR positivity rate in our healthcare worker cohort to be higher than that found by ONS in the general population. In the second wave, we found a peak PCR positivity of 3.6% (CI 3.4% to 3.9%) compared to 1.5–3.0% in regional general populations in England, and in the fourth wave, we found a peak PCR positivity of 10.1% (CI 9.6% to 10.6%) compared to 5–10%"
In his new interview, RFK Jr. says he won't allow single antigen Betacoronavirus pandemicum shots because they don't work against respiratory illness. Looks like Novavax is getting the axe this year.
Also, the measure used in the paper was whether a person tested positive or not. It did not consider the severity of infection. So it could be possible that flu vaccination reduced severity and hospitalisation.
Looks like they measured symptomatic flu. Severity is not specified but I assume there were no hospitalizations or very severe cases in their cohort. They did not measure infection per se the way the UK SIREN cohort studies did which measured infections regardless of symptoms.
What I find interesting is in their very first analysis of Betacoronavirus pandemicum shot in their cohort in the pre Omicron era, the effectiveness of the shot was very high at 97%, even higher than phase 3 clinical trial result
Their methodology seems legit. Their analysis of the Betacoronavirus pandemicum shot in the 2023 / 2024 winter season produced very similar results as the UK SIREN cohort study did in the same time period, even though they measured only symptomatic infections whereas the SIREN studies measure infections regardless of symptoms with fortnightly asymptomatic PCR testing.
As Alphainfluenzavirus influenzae and Betainfluenzavirus influenzae continue their spring decline, Betacoronavirus pandemicum continues inching its way back up and is expected to peak in August.
Thanks for another vital update.
Thank you.
Thank you Bob for all your hard work in doing this. I have just booked my booster thanks to your prompt 🙌
🙏
Covid graph has increased its slope. Now starting to look really worrying. Will be into next level soon.
Fortunately this weeks Covid Tests positivity rate saw a slight decrease which will hopefully continue as we move in to warmer weather with less people gathering in side and more vulnerable people getting vaccinated.
Thank you.
Betacoronavirus pandemicum is expected to peak in August as it usually does but this year I think because of high population immunity the peak will be much smaller than last year.
It's not unusual for a highly vaccinated population to have negative effectiveness. In fact, the UK SIREN HCW cohort study has found negative effectiveness of the Betacoronavirus pandemicum shot in the HCW cohort.
"During both winter periods included in our analysis, there were strong patient-facing workforce vaccination drives, and despite this, we found peak PCR positivity rate in our healthcare worker cohort to be higher than that found by ONS in the general population. In the second wave, we found a peak PCR positivity of 3.6% (CI 3.4% to 3.9%) compared to 1.5–3.0% in regional general populations in England, and in the fourth wave, we found a peak PCR positivity of 10.1% (CI 9.6% to 10.6%) compared to 5–10%"
Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445324003281
In his new interview, RFK Jr. says he won't allow single antigen Betacoronavirus pandemicum shots because they don't work against respiratory illness. Looks like Novavax is getting the axe this year.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqYXLeIhxj8
Bob, what do you make of this new flu shot report? Does mandatory flu shot and therefore yearly boosting make really it negatively effective?
Source: https://notthebee.com/article/study-flu-vaccine-linked-to-increased-risk-of-getting-the-flu
The article appears to be based on a pre-print paper paper that has yet to be peer-reviewed. Paper can be found here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.01.30.25321421v3.full-text
Here is a link to a response to the paper that highlights a 'statistical flaw' in their analysis:
https://bsky.app/profile/jsm2334.bsky.social/post/3lmdrpgl5vs2x
Also, the measure used in the paper was whether a person tested positive or not. It did not consider the severity of infection. So it could be possible that flu vaccination reduced severity and hospitalisation.
Looks like they measured symptomatic flu. Severity is not specified but I assume there were no hospitalizations or very severe cases in their cohort. They did not measure infection per se the way the UK SIREN cohort studies did which measured infections regardless of symptoms.
What I find interesting is in their very first analysis of Betacoronavirus pandemicum shot in their cohort in the pre Omicron era, the effectiveness of the shot was very high at 97%, even higher than phase 3 clinical trial result
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.02.21258231v1
Their subsequent analyses of Betacoronavirus pandemicum shot in their cohort in the Omicron era had always been less than 50% effective.
Sources:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.06.09.23290893v2
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v5
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38465901/
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.27.24306378v2
Their methodology seems legit. Their analysis of the Betacoronavirus pandemicum shot in the 2023 / 2024 winter season produced very similar results as the UK SIREN cohort study did in the same time period, even though they measured only symptomatic infections whereas the SIREN studies measure infections regardless of symptoms with fortnightly asymptomatic PCR testing.
Sources:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38465901/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39343245/
Thanks for your input. Appreciate it.
As Alphainfluenzavirus influenzae and Betainfluenzavirus influenzae continue their spring decline, Betacoronavirus pandemicum continues inching its way back up and is expected to peak in August.