Covid Situation Report: Jun 4, 2025
Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction.
This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations.
This week's report covers the latest weekly test positivity rates and hospital admissions data for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. An update on the UK’s Spring 2025 Covid booster campaign is also provided. The report also presents the latest data on deaths due to Covid in England and Wales.
Finally, the report covers the latest information on the Covid NB.1.8.1 variant, recently declared a ‘variant under monitoring’ by the WHO, and it’s impact on Covid levels in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific regions.
Summary.
This week the good news continues with all Covid data indicating low levels across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Flu activity fell to very low levels in all Home Nations indicating that the Flu season is over.
In England this week, the Covid test positivity increased slightly but remains at relatively low levels. Hospital admissions for Covid remained stable and historically low.
In Scotland, Covid hospital admissions remained at very low levels. However, there was a slight increase in test positivity levels although it remains relatively low.
This week Covid hospital admissions in Wales remained relatively low, whereas admissions for Flu and RSV have virtually stopped.
In Northern Ireland, Some Covid indicators increased very slightly but activity remained at a low levels Flu activity fell to very low levels and RSV is at baseline activity levels.
Deaths due to Covid in England and Wales remain much lower than previous years.
The WHO have recently declared NB.1.8.1 (sometimes called Nimbus) a variant under monitoring, reporting in it’s May 23 Risk Evaluation that:
Despite a concurrent increase in cases and hospitalizations in some countries where NB.1.8.1 is widespread, current data do not indicate that this variant leads to more severe illness than other variants in circulation.
The NB.1.8.1 variant is rapidly becoming dominant in several countries across South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. It has been associated with increased Covid levels in Hong Kong and Singapore, although Covid activity in these countries appears to have peaked. Covid levels in wastewater in New Zealand has increased but cases and admissions have yet to rise.
Small numbers of cases of NB.1.8.1 have been identified in Europe and the Americas and there are no signs of any significant increase in Covid activity in these regions at the moment.
The NHS Spring 2025 Covid Booster campaign opened on April 1 and will run until June 17, 2025 for England. However, the campaigns in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland close later on June 30.
In England, just over 3.7 million doses have been given to date, with 55% of those aged 75 years and older vaccinated.
Those eligible for free vaccinations on the NHS are:
adults aged 75 years and over;
residents in a care home for older adults; and
individuals aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed.
Bookings for Spring 2025 booster vaccinations can be made at the following link until June 16:
Details for booking a booster after this data in Scotland can be found here, for Wales can be found here, and for Northern Ireland can be found here.
A reminder that for individuals not covered by the NHS, Covid and Flu vaccinations may be obtainable for a fee at local pharmacies.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the immunocompromised. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England.
Note that presently the UKHSA National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report is released every two weeks. Consequently, this section will not be updated next week.
This section starts with the latest available data on positivity rates for primary respiratory infections in England. It is important to understand that positivity differs from prevalence, which refers to the overall percentage of COVID-19 in the general population. Appendix 1 provides a more detailed explanation of the difference and why positivity rates are a useful indicator of trends in Covid infection levels.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken, including those outside of hospitals, and is mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics.
The chart shows that the test positivity rate has increased slightly over the past two weeks and and is now just above the baseline threshold of activity. However, this still indicates a relatively low level of risk.
The next chart in this section shows weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people in England for the main respiratory diseases.
Over the past week, weekly hospital admission rates for Covid remained stable and below baseline activity levels. Admissions for RSV and Flu are are no longer provided.
Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity
Scotland continues to publish weekly data on hospital admissions and bed occupancy for Covid as well as wastewater monitoring data. The dashboard for Scotland’s data can be accessed here.
There was no update to wastewater data published this week so I have included Covid test positivity rate instead.
The following panel chart shows the most recent data for Covid test positivity (shown in red) and weekly Covid hospital admissions (depicted in blue).
The chart indicates that the test positivity rate for Covid is gradually rising, although from very low levels, while hospital admissions remain steady at historically low figures.
This week there were just 11 hospital admissions for Flu reported and none for RSV.
Wales Covid hospital admissions.
The following chart provides the trend for weekly hospital admissions in Wales up to week ending Jun 1, 2025.
Two weeks ago, hospital admissions for Covid in Wales fell to their lowest level in over two years. However, they have now returned to the slightly higher levels which are still historically low.
This week there were just 3 hospital admissions for Flu reported and none for RSV.
Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.
Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly surveillance report on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19 providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses — Flu, RSV, and Covid.
The chart shows that Covid levels, depicted in purple, increased slightly but remained low this week. Positivity rates for Flu, shown in green, have fallen from the winter peak and are now at very low levels.
The chart below presents the weekly count of hospital admissions for the main respiratory illnesses where the infection was contracted in the community, thereby excluding patients who contracted Covid while in hospital.
The chart shows that for most of 2024, the bulk of hospital admissions for respiratory infections stemmed from Covid. Since November 2024 hospital admissions for Covid, indicated in purple, have been low although they have started to increase slowly in the past few weeks.
Flu admissions have fallen from the December peak and are now very low, well below those for Covid.
Spring 2025 Covid Booster Campaign
The NHS Spring 2025 Covid Booster campaign opened on April 1 and will run until June 17, 2025 in England. However, the campaigns in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland close on June 30, 2025. For details on booking a Covid booster in Scotland click here, for Wales click here, and for Northern Ireland here.
Those eligible for all Home Nations are older people in care homes, individuals 75 years and older, the immunosuppressed aged 6 months and over.
The data in this section is only for NHS vaccinations and does not include privately administered doses.
The first chart in this section compares vaccine coverage for those aged 75 years and older for each of the Home Nations. The date of the latest available data is in parenthesis after the Home Nations name.
The table chart shows that the increase in coverage for England is slowing down and this means that Scotland now has a higher coverage for those aged 75 years and older than England.
The following chart shows the number of Covid vaccinations given by week for each of the booster campaigns in England.
The Spring 2025 booster campaign has administered 3,708,065 doses in England to date. All Spring booster campaigns have the same eligibility criteria so it is possible to compare across each year. With two weeks of the 2025 campaign remaining, it now seems very likely that it will fall short of the doses administered in the previous years Spring booster campaigns.
Covid deaths in England and Wales
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly reports on the number of deaths recorded on death certificates that are due to Covid or where Covid was involved. The data available is for both England and Wales. The following chart compares the weekly deaths due to Covid in England and Wales for 2024-25 with the same period for 2023-24. The figures in the chart are based on the date a death was registered, which is usually later than the date it occurred.
The chart shows that deaths due to Covid are lower for most weeks of 2024-25 than for the same period in 2023-24. For the period shown on the graph there were a total of 4,896 deaths due to Covid in 2024-25 compared to 7,076 in 2023-24.
The following chart shows the cumulative number of deaths due to Covid since the start of the pandemic mapped to the dominant Covid variants when the death was registered. A variant is considered dominant when it accounts for more than a half of the variants sequenced for a period longer than four weeks.
To date 180,400 people have died due to Covid in England and Wales. The chart clearly shows that new variants can accelerate the number of deaths particularly in an unvaccinated population. This was particularly the case for the more infectious Alpha variant which led to a rapid increase in deaths from October 2020 and resulted in the highest number of deaths due to any of the variants.
The NB.1.8.1 variant and rising levels in South-East Asia
The World Health Organisation (WHO) designated the variant NB.1.8.1 (sometimes called Nimbus) a variant under monitoring on May 23, 2025. A reminder that in their NB.1.8.1 Risk Evaluation Report they concluded that the present global health risk was low but uncertain. In reaching this conclusion the report stated that:
NB.1.8.1 is growing rapidly compared to co-circulating variants. However, NB.1.8.1 exhibits only marginal additional immune evasion over LP.8.1. While there are reported increases in cases and hospitalizations in some of the countries, which have the highest proportion of NB.1.8.1, there are no reports to suggest that the associated disease severity is higher as compared to other circulating variants.
The report also noted that ‘Currently approved COVID-19 vaccines are expected to remain effective to this variant against symptomatic and severe disease.’
The following panel chart shows the latest prevalence data for the NB.1.8.1 variant across a number of countries. The grey bars indicates when data is not yet available.
It is important to note that countries use different methods to sequence variants and are therefore not directly comparable. For example, Hong Kong sequences samples from wastewater monitoring whereas USA sequences positive test samples. Also there is a low number of samples sequenced making the numbers uncertain.
Despite these caveats, it can be seen that N.B.1.8.1 variant is growing fast in South East Asia and Australia where it is now the dominant variant. However, it has yet to take off in other countries.
Data from Hong Kong provides the most comprehensive picture available of the impact of N.B.1.8.1 on Covid activity and the following panel chart shows the recent trend for Covid test positivity, Covid levels in wastewater, and the impact on health as measured by the consultation rate.
The charts indicate that the recent peak in Covid activity has been reached and these key indicators are continuing to fall. The latest COVID-19 & FLU EXPRESS report from Hong Kong states:
The latest surveillance data showed that the overall local activity of COVID-19 has declined, but is still at a relatively high level.
Singapore also publishes a less comprehensive Weekly Infectious Diseases Bulletin 2025 that includes data on the test positivity rate for people admitted to hospital for respiratory infections. The following chart shows the weekly trend in that test positivity rate.
The chart shows that test positivity increased in May 2025 as it did in the previous year. The latest weeks data shows that test positivity fell slightly indicating that the wave may have peaked in Singapore.
Like Hong Kong, New Zealand also publishes a wide range of Covid metrics and the next panel chart shows the data for cases, levels in wastewater sampling, and hospital admissions since the start of 2024.
New Zealand is also showing a significant rise in Covid activity as measured by wastewater monitoring. However, this has yet to show in the other metrics where there are only slight increases in the number of cases detected and admissions to hospitals.
The last chart in this section shows the levels of Covid as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.
Whilst there have been some slight increases, most notably in Austria and the Netherlands, Covid activity remains low across these countries at the moment.
Finally, while some cases were detected in the USA through airport monitoring, only a small number have since been reported in some states, including California, Hawaii New, Ohio, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Washington. The latest data on Covid activity in the USA can be found at the CDC Covid Tracker which can be found here. At present Covid levels are historically low.
In conclusion
Although the amount of data currently being published has fallen, the information available for England show that Covid levels are at relatively low levels. Recent data also indicates that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also at low levels of Covid.
The Spring 2025 booster campaign is in progress and by the end of last week just over 55% of those aged 75 years and older had been vaccinated in England.
Deaths due to Covid in England and Wales remain relatively low.
Last week the WHO declared NB.1.8.1 a variant under monitoring, but assessed the present risk to public health as low. This was because although it has a slight growth advantage over other variants circulating there was now evidence that it was a more sever illness.
Singapore and Hong Kong have recently seen significant increases in Covid activity driven by the NB.1.8.1 variant but they appear to have peaked and are now falling. Covid activity measure by wastewater has increased in New Zealand but cases and hospital admissions have only just started to rise and are still at relatively low levels.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence
Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.
Test positivity rates, while not directly estimating the number of Covid infections in the general population, can be a valuable indicator of the infection trend. The panel chart below compares the weekly test positivity rate among hospital patients with respiratory symptoms to the prevalence of Covid in the general population, as reported in the Winter Infection Survey.
The chart shows that the weekly test positivity rates for patients with symptoms of respiratory infections follows the same pattern as the prevalence for Covid reported by the Winter Infection Survey. Since the Winter Infection Survey is based on a representative sample of the general population this supports using test positivity as a useful proxy for infection trends. However it is not possible to use test positivity to estimate prevalence.
Thanks as always for your work with keeping us informed.
There's no more PCR or LFD testing of the whole population to determine prevalence of SARS COV 2 infection but the recently updated serologic results of capid antibody testing of blood donors suggests despite low clinical presentation of SARS COV 2 this winter, infection remains widespread and capsid antibody prevalence has increased again. So it appears SARS COV 2 is becoming more transmissible and less severe which makes sense. Healthy people will go out and spread the virus with minimal or even no symptoms.
Source: Table 13 in https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/epidemiology-of-covid-19-in-england/epidemiology-of-covid-19-in-england-january-2020-to-december-2024