Covid Situation Report: Jul 17, 2025
Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction.
This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.
This week's report covers the latest weekly test positivity rates for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the latest data on Covid levels in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific regions. Finally, Covid activity in selected European countries and North America (USA and Canada) is covered.
Summary.
This week the good news continues with all Covid data indicating low levels across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
In England, Covid test positivity increased slightly in the past two weeks but remained at relatively low levels. Hospital admissions remained stable and low.
In Scotland, hospital admissions again fell and remained at low levels. Covid levels detected in wastewater also fell and are at relatively low levels.
There was no update for Wales this week. Last week Covid hospital admissions in Wales were relatively low and admissions for Flu and RSV had virtually stopped.
In Northern Ireland, Covid activity had remained stable and relatively low across key surveillance indicators over the past two weeks.
Recently, the WHO declared NB.1.8.1 and XFG as variants under monitoring due to reported increases in cases and hospitalisations in some countries which have the highest prevalence of these variants. These remain the two most common variants globally.
NB 1.8.1 has become dominant in many countries across South-East Asia and has been linked to a rise in Covid activity in regions such as Hong Kong and Singapore. However, Covid activity in these countries has peaked and is now falling.
XFG is rising fast in some countries in Europe (including England) and North America (USA and Canada) but there are no signs of any increases in Covid activity in these regions at present.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the immunocompromised. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England.
Note that presently the UKHSA National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report is released every two weeks. Consequently, this section will not be fully updated next week.
This section starts with the latest available data on positivity rates for primary respiratory infections in England. It is important to understand that positivity differs from prevalence, which refers to the overall percentage of COVID-19 in the general population. Appendix 1 provides a more detailed explanation of the difference and why positivity rates are a useful indicator of trends in Covid infection levels.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken, including those outside of hospitals, and is mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics.
The chart shows that the test positivity rate has increased slightly over the past week and and is now just above the baseline threshold of activity. This indicates a relatively low level of risk.
The next chart in this section shows weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people in England for the main respiratory diseases.
Over the past two weeks, weekly hospital admission rates for Covid have been stable and remain below baseline activity levels. Admissions for RSV and Flu are are no longer provided.
The final chart in this section depicts the estimated prevalence of the main Covid variants in England from Jan 14, 2024 to Jun 29, 2025. It clearly shows that XFG is now the dominant variant in England.
Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity
Scotland continues to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The dashboard for Scotland’s data can be accessed here.
The following panel chart presents the most recent data for weekly Covid test positivity shown in red, Covid levels in wastewater in blue, and Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange.
This week, admissions and test positivity rates continued to decline, with only a slight increase in Covid detected in wastewater. Overall, all indicators remain at relatively low levels.
Wales Covid hospital admissions.
There was no data published this week so the chart has not been updated.
The following chart provides the trend for weekly hospital admissions in Wales up to week ending Jul 6, 2025.
Last month hospital admissions for Covid in Wales fell to their lowest level in over two years. However, they have now returned to slightly higher levels but are still relatively low.
Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.
Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly surveillance report on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19 providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.
Note that over the summer period the Northern Ireland surveillance report is only released every two weeks. Consequently, this section will not be updated next week.
Flu and RSV activity remained low and stable over the past two weeks, circulating at baseline levels. Covid indicators showed no significant change, with activity remaining steady and at low levels.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses — Flu, RSV, and Covid and Rhinovirus. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.
The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate, depicted in blue, has stabilised over the past two weeks indicating that the recent increase in Covid activity has stopped. Positivity rates for Flu, shown in green, have fallen from the winter peak and are now at very low levels.
The chart below presents the weekly count of hospital admissions for the main respiratory illnesses where the infection was contracted in the community, thereby excluding patients who contracted Covid while in hospital.
The chart shows that for most of 2024, the bulk of hospital admissions for respiratory infections stemmed from Covid, indicated in purple. Since November 2024 hospital admissions for Covid have been low; however, their has been a recent slow increase in the past few weeks which has now plateaued.
Recent Variants Update
Recently, the WHO declared NB.1.8.1 a variant under monitoring but assessed the risk to public health as low. This was because although it has a slight growth advantage over other variants circulating, there was no evidence it was a more severe illness.
On June 25, the XFG variant was also classified as a variant under monitoring by the WHO. In their risk evaluation the WHO stated that the risk level was also low, noting that whilst XFG is growing rapidly compared to other variants circulating there are no reports to suggest that the associated disease severity is higher.
The following chart shows the latest global prevalence data for the main variants under monitoring by week.
Based on the available data, XFG and NB.1.8.1 remain the dominant variants with XFG growing slightly faster.
The following chart shows that the NB.1.8.1 variant has become dominant in several South-East Asian countries, contributing to increased Covid activity in places like Hong Kong and Singapore. However, as we will explore in the next section, Covid activity in these regions has already peaked and is now on the decline.
It is important to note that countries use different methods to sequence variants and are therefore not directly comparable. For example, Hong Kong sequences samples from wastewater monitoring whereas New Zealand sequences positive test samples. Also there is a low number of samples sequenced making the numbers uncertain.
The final chart in this section shows that the XFG variant is dominant in some countries and Europe and North America but has yet to take off in others.
Covid levels in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.
In the previous section we saw that the NB.1.8.1 variant is dominant in several South-East Asian and Western Pacific countries. But what was the impact of these increased levels of NB1.8.1 on Covid activity in these countries?
Data from Hong Kong provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of NB.1.8.1 on Covid activity. The following panel chart shows the recent trend for Covid test positivity, Covid levels in wastewater, and the impact on health as measured by the consultation rate for Covid in out-patient clinics.
The charts indicate that NB.1.8.1 drove a significant increase in Covid activity resulting in an impact on health. However, the recent peak in Covid activity is over as these key indicators continue to fall rapidly and are nearing baseline activity levels.
New Zealand also publishes a wide range of Covid metrics and the next panel chart shows the data for cases, levels in wastewater sampling, and hospital admissions since the start of 2024. This shows a mixed picture but, unlike Hong Kong, levels are much lower than previous peaks for these indicators.
Covid levels in wastewater increased as the NB.1.8.1 variant increased in prevalence and remain at a moderately high level. However, Covid cases only increased slightly and have fallen in the past two weeks. Weekly hospital admissions increased at a higher rate and the latest data (up to week ending Jul 6) shows that they remain at a moderately high levels.
These two examples show that the impact of a new variant can be very different depending in the country. It is likely that the lower impact on New Zealand is due to a greater level of population immunity in New Zealand through higher vaccine coverage and the lower population density from being a less urban country.
Covid Levels in Europe and North America.
Media reports across Europe and in the USA have highlighted that the new variants XFG and NB.1.8.1 have been detected in these regions, leading to concerns that there may be a new wave of Covid activity over the summer months. As covered in an earlier section, the XFG variant appears to be growing fastest in these regions.
The latest report from the European Respiratory Virus Surveillance Summary reported that the most common Covid variants in GISAID for the European Region in July so far were XFG (28%), KP.1.1 (19%), and NB.1.8.1 (10%). Once again, it is important to note that the number of tests sequenced is low and these estimates have a wide range of uncertainty.
This section reviews the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. Despite the emergence of these new variants, current Covid activity in these regions remains low, with no indications of a summer wave.
The following chart shows the latest levels of Covid as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.
Over the past week, Covid activity fell slightly in most countries based on wastewater levels, with the exceptions of Austria and Denmark. Currently, all countries remain at relatively low levels.
Despite media reports of the new variants XFG and NB.1.8.1 in the USA, Covid activity remains historically low as measured by a number of key indicators. The following panel chart presents the recent trend in the USA for Covid test positivity (up to Jun 28), Covid levels in wastewater, and the impact on health as measured by the consultation rate for hospital admission rate (per 100,000) for Covid.
All major indicators of Covid activity in the USA remain low. Wastewater analysis also shows consistently low Covid levels across all regions of the country, as illustrated in the following chart.
The final chart in this section shows that Covid activity in Canada, as measured by the latest wastewater levels, increased slightly this week but remain low.
In conclusion
Although the amount of data currently being published has fallen, the information available for England show that Covid levels are at relatively low levels. Recent data also indicates that Scotland and Wales are also at low levels of Covid.
Recently, the WHO have declared NB.1.8.1 and XFG as variants under monitoring due to reported increases in cases and hospitalisations in some countries which have the highest prevalence of these variants. These are now the two most common variants globally.
Singapore and Hong Kong have recently seen significant increases in Covid activity driven by the NB.1.8.1 variant but they have peaked and are now falling fast.
Covid activity in Europe and the USA is relatively low and there are no signs of any significant increases in Covid activity in these regions at the moment.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence
Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.
Test positivity rates, while not directly estimating the number of Covid infections in the general population, can be a valuable indicator of the infection trend. The panel chart below compares the weekly test positivity rate among hospital patients with respiratory symptoms to the prevalence of Covid in the general population, as reported in the Winter Infection Survey.
The chart shows that the weekly test positivity rates for patients with symptoms of respiratory infections follows the same pattern as the prevalence for Covid reported by the Winter Infection Survey. Since the Winter Infection Survey is based on a representative sample of the general population this supports using test positivity as a useful proxy for infection trends. However it is not possible to use test positivity to estimate prevalence.
Very useful as always
Thanks again.