Covid Situation Report: Jul 10, 2025
Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction.
This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.
This week's report covers the latest weekly test positivity rates for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland and Wales. In addition, the final vaccination coverage data at the close of the Spring 2025 Covid booster campaign in the UK is presented. The report also summarises the latest data on deaths due to Covid in England and Wales
The report also gives an update on Covid levels in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific regions. Finally, Covid activity in selected European countries and North America (USA and Canada) is covered.
Summary.
This week the good news continues with all Covid data indicating low levels across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
In England, Covid test positivity continued to fall this week and remained at relatively low levels.
In Scotland, hospital admissions again fell and remained at low levels. Covid levels detected in wastewater also fell and are at relatively low levels.
This week Covid hospital admissions in Wales remained relatively low, whereas admissions for Flu and RSV have virtually stopped.
There was no update published for Northern Ireland. Last weeks report showed that Covid activity decreased slightly across some surveillance indicators, while admissions and occupancy remained stable.
Deaths due to Covid in England and Wales remain much lower than previous years.
Recently, the WHO have declared NB.1.8.1 and XFG as variants under monitoring due to reported increases in cases and hospitalisations in some countries which have the highest prevalence of these variants. These are now the two most common variants globally.
NB 1.8.1 has become dominant in many countries across South-East Asia and has been linked to a rise in Covid activity in regions such as Hong Kong and Singapore. However, Covid activity in these countries has peaked and is now falling.
Covid activity in Europe and North America (USA and Canada) remains low and there are no signs of any significant increases in Covid activity in these regions at present.
The Spring 2025 booster campaign has now closed for all Home Nations. Vaccination rates for those aged 75 years and older was highest in Scotland with 68.2% coverage. Booster coverage for this cohort was 60.3% in England, 57.1% in Wales, and 41.9% in Northern Ireland.
In England, booster coverage is lowest in the most deprived areas and amongst ethnic minorities.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the immunocompromised. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England.
The UKHSA National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report has moved to a condensed summer report published every two weeks and is not available this week.
Consequently, this weeks report only provides an update on the test positivity rate as published weekly on the UKHSA data dashboard.
This section starts with the latest available data on positivity rates for primary respiratory infections in England. It is important to understand that positivity differs from prevalence, which refers to the overall percentage of COVID-19 in the general population. Appendix 1 provides a more detailed explanation of the difference and why positivity rates are a useful indicator of trends in Covid infection levels.
The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken as published on the UKHSA dashboard. The positivity rate is mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics.
The chart shows that the test positivity rate has been falling recently and is now at baseline level of activity, signifying a relatively low level risk.
Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity
Scotland continues to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The dashboard for Scotland’s data can be accessed here.
The following panel chart presents the most recent data for weekly Covid test positivity shown in red, Covid levels in wastewater in blue, and Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange.
These three indicators of Covid activity show that the slight increase seen over the past few months has stopped. Covid levels are now falling and are at relatively low levels.
Wales Covid hospital admissions.
The following chart provides the trend for weekly hospital admissions in Wales up to week ending Jul 6, 2025.
Last month hospital admissions for Covid in Wales fell to their lowest level in over two years. However, they have now returned to slightly higher levels but are still relatively low.
This week there was one hospital admission for Flu and none for RSV.
Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.
Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly surveillance report on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19 providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.
Note that over the summer period the Northern Ireland surveillance report is only released every two weeks. Consequently, this section is not updated next week. Last weeks charts are included for reference .
Two weeks ago Flu and RSV activity was low and stable, circulating at baseline levels. Covid activity had decreased slightly across some surveillance indicators, while admissions and occupancy were stable.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses — Flu, RSV, and Covid and Rhinovirus. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.
The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate, depicted in purple, has stabilised over the past two weeks indicating that the recent increase in Covid activity has stopped. Positivity rates for Flu, shown in green, have fallen from the winter peak and are now at very low levels.
The chart below presents the weekly count of hospital admissions for the main respiratory illnesses where the infection was contracted in the community, thereby excluding patients who contracted Covid while in hospital.
The chart shows that for most of 2024, the bulk of hospital admissions for respiratory infections stemmed from Covid, indicated in purple. Since November 2024 hospital admissions for Covid have been low; however, their has been a recent slow increase in the past few weeks which has now plateaued.
Spring 2025 Covid Booster Campaign
The NHS Spring 2025 Covid Booster campaign in England opened on April 1 and closed on June 17, 2025. The campaigns in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland closed on June 30, 2025.
Those eligible for all Home Nations are older people in care homes, individuals 75 years and older, the immunosuppressed aged 6 months and over. The data in this section is only for NHS vaccinations and does not include privately administered doses.
The follow table compares vaccine coverage for the eligible cohorts for each of the Home Nations at the close of the Spring 2025 booster campaign.
The table chart shows that Scotland has a highest coverage for all eligible cohorts while Northern Ireland has the lowest. Coverage for immunosuppressed individuals is the lowest across all Home Nations.
The final charts in this section provides more detail on coverage at the close of the Spring 2025 booster campaign in England. The first chart presents the coverage by deprivation level.
The chart clearly shows that booster coverage for those in the most deprived areas is much lower than those from the least deprived areas.
The last chart in this section shows coverage by ethnicity at the close of the campaign in England.
The chart demonstrates that there is a significant ethnic disparity between those vaccinated.
Covid deaths in England and Wales
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly reports on the number of deaths recorded on death certificates that are due to Covid or where Covid was involved. The data available is for both England and Wales. The following chart compares the weekly deaths due to Covid in England and Wales for 2024-25 with the same period for 2023-24. The figures in the chart are based on the date a death was registered, which is usually later than the date it occurred.
The chart shows that deaths due to Covid are lower for most weeks of 2024-25 than for the same period in 2023-24. For the period shown on the graph there were a total of 4,623 deaths due to Covid in 2024-25 compared to 7,063 in 2023-24.
Recent Variants Update
Recently, the WHO declared NB.1.8.1 a variant under monitoring but assessed the risk to public health as low. This was because although it has a slight growth advantage over other variants circulating, there was no evidence it was a more severe illness.
The NB.1.8.1 variant has become dominant in many countries across South-East Asia and has been linked to a rise in Covid activity in regions such as Hong Kong and Singapore. However, Covid activity in these countries has peaked and is now falling.
On June 25, the XFG variant was also classified as a variant under monitoring by the WHO. In their risk evaluation the WHO stated that the risk level was also low, noting that whilst XFG is growing rapidly compared to other variants circulating there are no reports to suggest that the associated disease severity is higher.
The following chart shows the latest prevalence data for the main variants under monitoring by week.
Covid levels in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) designated the variant NB.1.8.1 (sometimes called Nimbus) a variant under monitoring on May 23, 2025. A reminder that in their NB.1.8.1 Risk Evaluation Report they concluded that the present global health risk was low but uncertain. In reaching this conclusion the report stated that:
NB.1.8.1 is growing rapidly compared to co-circulating variants. However, NB.1.8.1 exhibits only marginal additional immune evasion over LP.8.1. While there are reported increases in cases and hospitalizations in some of the countries, which have the highest proportion of NB.1.8.1, there are no reports to suggest that the associated disease severity is higher as compared to other circulating variants.
The report also noted that ‘Currently approved COVID-19 vaccines are expected to remain effective to this variant against symptomatic and severe disease.’
The following panel chart shows the latest prevalence data for the NB.1.8.1 variant across a number of countries. The grey bars indicate when data is not yet available.
It is important to note that countries use different methods to sequence variants and are therefore not directly comparable. For example, Hong Kong sequences samples from wastewater monitoring whereas New Zealand sequences positive test samples. Also there is a low number of samples sequenced making the numbers uncertain.
Despite these caveats, it can be seen that NB.1.8.1 variant remains the dominant variant in many South East Asian and Western Pacific countries.
But what was the impact of these increased levels of NB1.8.1 on Covid activity in these countries?
Data from Hong Kong provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of NB.1.8.1 on Covid activity. The following panel chart shows the recent trend for Covid test positivity, Covid levels in wastewater, and the impact on health as measured by the consultation rate for Covid in out-patient clinics.
The charts indicate that NB.1.8.1 drove a significant increase in Covid activity resulting in an impact on health. However, the recent peak in Covid activity is over as these key indicators continue to fall rapidly.
New Zealand also publishes a wide range of Covid metrics and the next panel chart shows the data for cases, levels in wastewater sampling, and hospital admissions since the start of 2024. This shows a mixed picture but, unlike Hong Kong, levels are much lower than previous peaks for these indicators.
Covid levels in wastewater increased as the NB.1.8.1 increased in prevalence and remain at a moderately high level. However, Covid cases only increased slightly and have fallen in the past two weeks. Weekly hospital admissions increased at a higher rate but the latest data (up to week ending June 29) shows early signs of falling.
These two examples show that the impact of a new variant can be very different depending in the country. It is likely that the lower impact on New Zealand is due to a greater level of population immunity in New Zealand through higher vaccine coverage and the lower population density from being a less urban country.
Covid Levels in Europe and North America.
Media reports across Europe and in the USA have highlighted that the new variants XFG and NB.1.8.1 have been detected in these regions, leading to concerns that there may be a new wave of Covid activity over the summer months. This section looks at the latest data available on NB.1.8.1 levels and Covid activity in Europe and North America. Currently Covid activity in these regions remains low with no signs of a summer wave.
At present, the prevalence of NB.1.8,1 is low but increasing in Europe. The latest report from the European Respiratory Virus Surveillance Summary reported that the most common Covid variants in GISAID for the European Region in June so far were XFG (26%), LP.8.1.1 (21%), NB.1.8.1 (14%), JN.1.16.1 (8%), and JN.1 (7%).
Once again, it is important to note that the number of tests sequenced is low and these estimates have a wide range of uncertainty.
The following chart shows the latest levels of Covid as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.
In the past week, most countries have seen Covid activity fall slightly as measured by wastewater levels and all countries remain at historically low levels at the moment.
Despite media reports of the new variants XFG and NB.1.8.1 in the USA, Covid activity remains historically low as measured by a number of key indicators. The following panel chart presents the recent trend in the USA for Covid test positivity, Covid levels in wastewater, and the impact on health as measured by the consultation rate for hospital admission rate (per 100,000) for Covid.
All key indicators of Covid activity in the USA continue to remain very low. Covid levels in wastewater also continue at very low levels across all regions of the USA.
The final chart in this section shows that Covid activity in Canada, as measured by the latest wastewater levels, are also low.
In conclusion
Although the amount of data currently being published has fallen, the information available for England show that Covid levels are at relatively low levels. Recent data also indicates that Scotland and Wales are also at low levels of Covid.
Recently, the WHO have declared NB.1.8.1 and XFG as variants under monitoring due to reported increases in cases and hospitalisations in some countries which have the highest prevalence of these variants. These are now the two most common variants globally.
Singapore and Hong Kong have recently seen significant increases in Covid activity driven by the NB.1.8.1 variant but they have peaked and are now falling fast.
Covid activity in Europe and the USA is relatively low and there are no signs of any significant increases in Covid activity in these regions at the moment.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence
Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.
Test positivity rates, while not directly estimating the number of Covid infections in the general population, can be a valuable indicator of the infection trend. The panel chart below compares the weekly test positivity rate among hospital patients with respiratory symptoms to the prevalence of Covid in the general population, as reported in the Winter Infection Survey.
The chart shows that the weekly test positivity rates for patients with symptoms of respiratory infections follows the same pattern as the prevalence for Covid reported by the Winter Infection Survey. Since the Winter Infection Survey is based on a representative sample of the general population this supports using test positivity as a useful proxy for infection trends. However it is not possible to use test positivity to estimate prevalence.
Thank you for another comprehensive and informative update.
Thank you. (& good news for our week in Hong Kong) 😁