Covid Situation Report: February 5, 2026
Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction.
This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.
This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America.
Charts for the USA were updated on Friday, Feb 6 to reflect the latest available data.
Summary.
This week the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland remained low, indicating a low level of risk.
Flu activity has continued to fall across all home nations, indicating that this year’s Flu season is over. However, there’s still a chance of some late seasonal activity.
In England, the all main indicators of Covid activity remained well within the baseline activity level. Flu activity has again fallen from its recent peak and is now circulating at low activity levels. Hospital admissions remain highest among those over 85 years old with Flu and children under 5 years with RSV.
In Scotland, although all indicators for Covid remained stable and within baseline levels. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu and RSV have fallen significantly from the recent peak and are at low levels of activity.
In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed at low levels. Flu admissions continued to fall this week and are now at low activity levels.
In Northern Ireland, Covid activity remained stable across all surveillance indicators and remains at low levels. Flu and RSV activity has fallen across all indicators.
Covid levels in wastewater remained low in most European countries that still report this data.
Covid activity in the USA again fell slightly last week and is at a moderate level of activity nationwide, though there are significant variations from state to state. Flu activity continued to fall, but is still high in some states.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England.
This section begins with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.
The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics.
The chart shows that the test positivity rate fell slightly this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates remained low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.
The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.
While all key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels there were slight increase in Emergency Department visits.
The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are historically low, while Flu and RSV admissions have peaked and are returning to low activity levels. Both still remain higher than Covid, indicating that Flu and RSV currently pose a slightly greater risk. If you’re experiencing Covid-like symptoms, there’s a good chance it is Flu or RSV.
While hospital admissions are falling, they still differ by age. Below are the hospital admission rates per 100,000 people by age group for Covid, Flu, and RSV for the week ending February 1, 2026.
The chart shows that the risk of hospitalisation remains highest among the very youngest age group and the elderly for both Flu and RSV. While current hospital admissions for Covid are much lower, the elderly remain more likely to be hospitalised.
While the activity levels for most respiratory viruses are falling, Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) levels have remained at a moderate level.
Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity
Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed here.
The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red, Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.
Once again, all Covid indicators in Scotland stayed stable and low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.
The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. While Flu positivity rates have continued to fall to low levels they remain higher than for Covid.
Despite influenza levels peaking earlier than expected this season, high activity has not been sustained, with continued decreases seen across all measures.
Laboratory-confirmed Flu cases continued to fall to 125 from the peak of 1,994, with overall activity remaining at baseline for this week. Test positivity also fell and hospital admissions for Flu also decreased from 139 to 82, with individuals aged 75 years and older accounting for 29.3% of admissions.
RSV laboratory‑confirmed cases fell to low levels this week with test positivity falling to 8.1% from 9.9%. Hospital admissions due to RSV also decreased; the highest proportion occurred in under 1 age group followed by the 1–4 age group.
Although Covid test positivity increased slightly this week, overall activity remained stable and within baseline levels. Activity rose from low to medium among 5–14 year olds, while dropping to low in children under four. Hospitalisations also declined, falling to 77 from 85 the week before.
Wales Covid hospital admissions.
During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available here. The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Feb 1, 2026.
Covid hospital admissions have stayed fairly steady over the past few months and remain very low. Flu cases needing hospitalisation continue to fall and are now lower than for Covid. RSV admissions also fell but remain at moderate levels.
This weeks Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report shows that Flu activity has returned to low levels, but warns that the potential remains for late seasonal activity. Confirmed case numbers have decreased in the current week, as has test positivity.
In addition, GP consultations for influenza-like illness have fallen below the ‘low intensity’ threshold. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity is decreasing overall but remains at medium intensity levels. Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable in recent weeks.
Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.
Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly surveillance report on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.
Covid activity fell across all surveillance indicators and remains at low levels. Flu activity also has fallen across all surveillance indicators and is now at low levels, while RSV activity remained stable across the majority of surveillance indicators and is circulating at moderate levels.
The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses — Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.
The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, fell slightly this week and stayed relatively low. Flu test positivity, shown in green, has continued to fall indicating that the winter Flu wave is over.
Covid Levels in Europe and North America.
This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. Covid levels have fallen in most countries across these regions and remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.
The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending January 29, 2026 as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.
This week, Covid levels in wastewater dropped in most European countries that still share this data, with only Denmark and Sweden reporting increases while staying at moderately low levels.
Updated on Friday, February 6 to reflect the latest published data.
As of week ending January 31, 2026, Covid activity in the USA continued to fall, though the situation varies across different parts of the country.
The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.
The panel chart shows Covid levels in wastewater remained stable and are at moderate activity for the week ending January 31, 2026. Emergency department visits and hospital admissions also fell, while Covid test positivity remained broadly unchanged.
Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest Mid West and Northeast states, while staying relatively low in the South and West regions, as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.
The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending January 31, 2026.
The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It indicates that while activity for Covid is moderate, Flu activity has has continued to fall and is now at a moderate level.
Flu activity varies across states, with cases increasing in 24 and decreasing in 23. While most states are experiencing moderate levels, seven are still facing high or very high activity, as shown on the interactive map.
Finally, the latest data from Canada, up to January 24, 2026, shows that Covid wastewater levels are holding steady at moderate levels, flu activity has dropped to low, but RSV activity is on the rise.
In conclusion
Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. Flu activity had fallen from its recent peak although and is now at low levels.
Covid levels in wastewater are dropping across European countries and are low in most areas. In the USA, Covid activity also fell slightly but remains at high levels in a some states. Flu activity in both the USA and Canada is falling.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence
Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.
Bób's invaluable public service providing expert monitoring and reliable data on these diseases is very much appreciated. Long may it continue.!
Thank you for the update and for your continuing public health reporting here. It is invaluable.