Covid Situation Report: Feb 27, 2025
Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction.
This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations.
This week's report includes the latest weekly test positivity rates and hospital admissions data for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Finally, an update is provided on Covid levels in other countries.
Much of the data used in this Covid Situation Report comes from the UKHSA weekly influenza and COVID-19 Surveillance Report. A reminder that UKHSA are presently asking for user feedback and, if you have not already done so, you may like to provide your input at the following link.
In particular, there is a chance that UKHSA may revert back to only publishing their weekly reports during the winter season. Last year they continued to publish a shorter report every two weeks from March to October allowing me to publish these situation reports throughout the year. You may wish to complete the survey and suggest UKHSA continue this practice.
Summary.
This week continues the Covid good news, as the data indicates low levels across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
Whilst Flu levels are currently higher than Covid and RSV they are falling across all Home Nations, indicating that the Winter Flu season is coming to an end. RSV infection indicators remain low.
This means that individuals with Covid-like symptoms are more likely to be suffering from flu or a cold rather than Covid or RSV.
In England, the Covid test positivity rate, and hospital admissions remained stable and at low levels. Flu test positivity and hospital admissions are no longer very high but are still at moderately high levels.
Unlike previous years, the test positivity rate for hMPV increased this week and is at its highest level in two years, indicating that this is a bad year for the virus.
In Scotland, Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy remain at very low levels with wastewater monitoring levels continuing at their lowest ever. Flu admissions are now at relatively low levels.
This week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales remained low. Flu admissions fell again and are now at low levels.
In Northern Ireland, Covid indicators continue at low levels and are currently below those of other respiratory viruses. RSV and Covid activity decreased across the majority of surveillance indicators; however, Flu remains moderately high.
The latest data from several other countries (USA, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands) indicate that Covid levels continue to be relatively low and are following a similar trend to the UK.
Bookings for the NHS Autumn Covid booster are now closed. However, there will be a Spring 2025 campaign which will run from April 1 to June 17, 2025. Those eligible will be:
adults aged 75 years and over;
residents in a care home for older adults; and
individuals aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed.
Further details can be found here.
A reminder that for individuals not covered by the NHS, Covid and Flu vaccinations may be obtainable for a fee at local pharmacies.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the immunocompromised. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England.
This section starts with the latest available data on positivity rates for primary respiratory infections in England. It is important to understand that positivity differs from prevalence, which refers to the overall percentage of COVID-19 in the general population. Appendix 1 provides a more detailed explanation of the difference and why positivity rates are a useful indicator of trends in Covid infection levels.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rate for all Covid samples taken, including those outside of hospitals, and is mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics.
The chart shows a slight increase in the test positivity rate but levels remain well below the baseline threshold of activity indicating relatively low levels of risk.
The following chart displays the test positivity rates for the main respiratory illnesses in England, covering Flu, Covid, RSV, and Rhinovirus. This positivity rate is only for tests carried out in hospital so differs slightly from the previous chart. However, taking this approach allows a fair comparison between the different viruses.
The Covid positivity rate has continued to stay stable and very low this week, significantly lower than Flu. Although Flu rates remain moderately high they are continuing to fall. RSV rates are also falling and are at low levels. Meanwhile, rhinovirus rates have increased over the paste weeks and are at a relatively high level.
The chances are that if you have Covid-like symptoms you are more likely to be suffering from flu or a cold than RSV or Covid.
The next chart in this section shows weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people in England for the main respiratory diseases.
Over the past week, weekly hospital admission rates for Covid remained at very low levels . Meanwhile, admission rates for Flu, although moderately high, are continuing to fall from their recent peak. Admissions for RSV are stable and at low levels.
Finally, although press coverage about the risk of Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) has declined, UKHSA continue to report on its progress. The following chart shows the trend in the test positivity rate hMPV in hospital patients admitted with respiratory illness in England for the past two years.
Human metapneumovirus (hMPV), a virus with symptoms similar to Flu, is a seasonal virus that usually peaks in early January and then falls in February. Worryingly, the test positivity rate for hMPV increased this week to its highest level in two years. Unlike previous years, it has yet to decline, indicating that this may be bad season for this virus.
Scotland weekly hospital admissions and bed occupancy
Scotland continues to publish weekly data on hospital admissions and bed occupancy for Covid as well as wastewater monitoring data. The dashboard for Scotland’s data can be accessed here.
The following panel chart shows the most recent data for weekly Covid hospital admissions depicted in blue, together with the number of beds occupied by Covid patients, shown in orange. The number of occupied beds represent patients being treated for Covid as well as those being treated with Covid.
This week Covid admissions and bed occupancy fell slightly and are at there lowest levels for over a year,
Scotland remains the only home nation that is monitoring Covid levels using wastewater sampling and the following chart shows the seven day average of Covid levels found up to Feb 20, 2025.
The wastewater sampling data shows that the high Covid levels observed at the start of August have significantly dropped and are now at very low levels. This week the data showed Covid levels remained at their lowest ever detected.
Finally, the following chart compares the weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Scotland.
The chart shows that flu-related emergency hospital admissions rose sharply in December and Public Health Scotland reported that this reached a record high of 1606 admissions for the week ending Dec 29. This surge placed a considerable burden on hospitals. However, whilst admissions have fallen significantly in the past five weeks to relatively low levels they have now stabilised.
Wales Covid hospital admissions.
Public Health Wales recently updated the published data on respiratory viruses, resulting in the currently available data being limited.
The following chart provides the trend for weekly hospital admissions in Wales.
Hospital admissions for Covid in Wales were stable this week and remain at low levels.
In contrast, the following chart illustrates that hospital admissions for flu in Wales were high during the holiday period but have now fallen significantly and are now at relatively low levels.
Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.
Recently Public Health Northern Ireland began issuing a combined surveillance report on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19 to offer a comprehensive view of the epidemiology of these infections within Northern Ireland. The report, published every Wednesday, can be accessed here.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses — Flu, RSV, and Covid.
The chart shows that once again Covid levels, depicted in purple, have stayed stable this week and are at their lowest point in a year. Additionally, they continue to be lower than the rates of other major respiratory viruses. Positivity rates for Flu, shown in green, have fallen from the winter peak, but have now stabilised at moderately high levels.
The chart below presents the weekly count of hospital admissions for the main respiratory illnesses where the infection was contracted in the community, thereby excluding patients who contracted Covid while in hospital. It is important to note that the hospital admissions data for other home nations include patients who contracted infections in the hospital, making them not directly comparable to the data from Northern Ireland.
The chart shows that for most of 2024, the bulk of hospital admissions for respiratory infections stemmed from Covid. However, since November hospital admissions for Covid, indicated in purple, have remained stable and are now at their lowest in a year.
Meanwhile, hospital admissions for the Flu, depicted in blue, increased significantly in December. However, Flu admissions have fallen for the past five weeks and are now relatively low.
Covid levels in other countries
Other countries continue to monitor the levels of Covid. Most are using hospital admissions for Covid, but some continue to publish waste water surveillance data which provides a better understanding of levels of Covid in the overall community.
The following chart shows the viral load for Covid in wastewater samples for Germany up to February 19, 2025.
The chart shows that Covid levels are continuing to fall following an increase in Autumn 2024 and are now approaching there lowest levels in three years.
The next chart shows the wastewater surveillance data for the Netherlands which shows a very similar pattern to Germany with Covid levels continuing to fall and are now at there lowest levels in just over two years.
Denmark has also continued to monitor Covid levels in wastewater. Although the trend is different from Germany and the Netherlands the following chart shows that Covid levels continue to be low.
Finally, the CDC publishes Covid hospital admission data for the United States of America and the following chart depicts the latest admission rate by season from the start of the pandemic until February 22, 2025.
Once again, we can see that Covid levels are relatively low and are following a similar path to other countries.
In conclusion
Apologies for the slight delay publishing this weeks report, but yesterday I had the chance to meet up with the amazing Professor Christina Pagel for the first time, and here is the evidence.
Although the amount of data currently being published has decreased, the information available for England show that Covid levels are at relatively low levels and much lower than Flu or RSV.
Recent data indicates that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are also at low levels of Covid.
Across all home nations, Flu levels are falling fast and are at relatively low levels. The Winter peak is over.
The latest Covid levels in several other countries are also relatively low and follow a similar trend to the UK.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence
Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.
Test positivity rates, while not directly estimating the number of Covid infections in the general population, can be a valuable indicator of the infection trend. The panel chart below compares the weekly test positivity rate among hospital patients with respiratory symptoms to the prevalence of Covid in the general population, as reported in the Winter Infection Survey.
The chart shows that the weekly test positivity rates for patients with symptoms of respiratory infections follows the same pattern as the prevalence for Covid reported by the Winter Infection Survey. Since the Winter Infection Survey is based on a representative sample of the general population this supports using test positivity as a useful proxy for infection trends.
Once again, Bob, I want you to now how much your work is appreciated. You're providing a unique public service!
Thanks again for keeping up with the info. One thing continues to puzzle me. Why does England, not test the wastewater, as they do in Scotland and a number of other countries? I would have thought it would be reasonably quick test?