Covid Situation Report: Apr 17, 2025
Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction.
This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations.
This week's report includes the latest weekly test positivity rates and hospital admissions data for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Early data on the Spring 2025 Covid booster campaign in England is presented. Finally, an update is provided on Covid levels in some other countries
Summary.
This week the good news continues with Covid data indicating low levels across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
Whilst Flu levels continue to be slightly higher than Covid across most Home Nations, they are continuing to fall and are at low levels.
This means that individuals with Covid-like symptoms are more likely to be suffering from Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) or a cold rather than Covid.
In England, the Covid test positivity rate continues to increase slowly but remains low. Meanwhile, hospital admissions for Covid remain stable and at low levels. Flu test positivity and hospital admissions continue to fall and are at low levels. Finally, the test positivity rate for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) remains at a relatively high level.
In Scotland, Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy remain at very low levels with wastewater monitoring levels still at low levels. Flu admissions are now at relatively low levels, although slightly higher than for Covid.
This week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales also remained low. Flu admissions continued to be low and are now lower than those for Covid.
In Northern Ireland, Covid and Flu remained stable and at low activity levels, where as RSV remained at baseline levels.
The latest data from several other countries (USA, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands) indicate that Covid levels continue to be low and are following a similar trend to the UK.
The Spring 2025 Covid Booster campaign opened on April 1 and will run until June 17, 2025. In England, just under 1.8 million doses were given in the first two weeks at a comparable daily rate to last years spring booster campaign.
Those eligible for free vaccinations on the NHS are:
adults aged 75 years and over;
residents in a care home for older adults; and
individuals aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed.
Bookings for Spring 2025 booster vaccinations can be made at the following link:
A reminder that for individuals not covered by the NHS, Covid and Flu vaccinations may be obtainable for a fee at local pharmacies.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the immunocompromised. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England.
This section starts with the latest available data on positivity rates for primary respiratory infections in England. It is important to understand that positivity differs from prevalence, which refers to the overall percentage of COVID-19 in the general population. Appendix 1 provides a more detailed explanation of the difference and why positivity rates are a useful indicator of trends in Covid infection levels.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rate for all Covid samples taken, including those outside of hospitals, and is mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics.
The chart shows a a slight decrease the test positivity rate and levels remain below the baseline threshold of activity indicating relatively low levels of risk.
The following chart displays the test positivity rates for the main respiratory illnesses in England, covering Flu, Covid, RSV, and Rhinovirus. This positivity rate is only for tests carried out in hospital so differs slightly from the previous chart. However, taking this approach allows a fair comparison between the different viruses.
The Covid positivity rate has continued to stay stable and remained low this week. Flu rates continued to fall and are now at low levels. RSV rates continue at very low levels, whereas rhinovirus rates remain at a moderately high level.
The chances are that if you have Covid-like symptoms you are more likely to be suffering from Flu or a cold than RSV or Covid.
The next chart in this section shows weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people in England for the main respiratory diseases.
Over the past week, weekly hospital admission rates for Covid remained at very low levels . Meanwhile, admission rates for Flu continue to fall from their recent peak and are also at low levels. Admissions for RSV are stable and at very low levels.
Finally, although press coverage about the risk of Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) has declined, UKHSA continue to report on its progress. The following chart shows the trend in the test positivity rate hMPV in hospital patients admitted with respiratory illness in England for the past two years.
Human metapneumovirus (hMPV), a virus with symptoms similar to Flu, is a seasonal virus that usually peaks in early January and then falls in February. This week test positivity increased slightly to 4.7%, with the highest positivity in those aged under 5 years.
Unlike previous years, it has yet to decline, indicating that this is a bad season for this virus.
Scotland weekly hospital admissions and bed occupancy
Scotland continues to publish weekly data on hospital admissions and bed occupancy for Covid as well as wastewater monitoring data. The dashboard for Scotland’s data can be accessed here.
The following panel chart shows the most recent data for weekly Covid hospital admissions depicted in blue, together with the number of beds occupied by Covid patients, shown in orange. The number of occupied beds represent patients being treated for Covid as well as those being treated with Covid.
This week Covid admissions and beds occupied by Covid patients remained stable and at low levels.
Scotland remains the only home nation that is monitoring Covid levels using wastewater sampling and the following chart shows the seven day average of Covid levels found up to April 11, 2025.
The wastewater sampling data shows that the high Covid levels observed at the start of August 2024 dropped significantly to very low levels. After last weeks slight increase, this week the data showed Covid levels fall slightly and remain very low.
Finally, the following chart compares the weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Scotland.
The chart shows that flu-related emergency hospital admissions rose sharply in December and Public Health Scotland reported that this reached a record high of 1606 admissions for the week ending Dec 29. This surge placed a considerable burden on hospitals. However, Flu admissions have fallen significantly in the past weeks and are now at low levels.
Wales Covid hospital admissions.
Public Health Wales recently updated the published data on respiratory viruses, resulting in the currently available data being limited.
The following chart provides the trend for weekly hospital admissions in Wales.
This week, hospital admissions for Covid in Wales remained at relatively low levels.
In contrast, the following chart illustrates that hospital admissions for flu in Wales were high during the holiday period but have fallen significantly and are also now at relatively low levels.
Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.
Recently Public Health Northern Ireland began issuing a combined surveillance report on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19 to offer a comprehensive view of the epidemiology of these infections within Northern Ireland. The report, published every Thursday, can be accessed here.
The first chart in this section shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses — Flu, RSV, and Covid.
The chart shows that Covid levels, depicted in purple, remained low this week with a very slight fall. Positivity rates for Flu, shown in green, have fallen from the winter peak, but have now stabilised at moderately low levels.
The chart below presents the weekly count of hospital admissions for the main respiratory illnesses where the infection was contracted in the community, thereby excluding patients who contracted Covid while in hospital. It is important to note that the hospital admissions data for other home nations include patients who contracted infections in the hospital, making them not directly comparable to the data from Northern Ireland.
The chart shows that for most of 2024, the bulk of hospital admissions for respiratory infections stemmed from Covid. However, since November hospital admissions for Covid, indicated in purple, have have been relatively low.
Meanwhile, hospital admissions for the Flu, depicted in blue, increased significantly in December. However, Flu admissions have fallen from the December peak and are now similar to the numbers seen a year ago.
Spring 2025 Covid Booster Campaign
The Spring 2025 Covid Booster campaign opened on April 1 and will run until June 17, 2025. Those eligible are older people in care homes, individuals 75 years and older, the immunosuppressed aged 6 months and over.
The next chart shows the number of Covid vaccinations given by week for each of the booster campaigns in England.
The Spring 2025 booster campaign has started well with 1,787,222 doses administered in England during the first two weeks of the campaign. Comparisons with previous spring campaigns are difficult because earlier campaigns started vaccinations in care homes ahead of the wider population and the number of working days varies. Adjusting for these factors, 198,580 people per day were vaccinated in the first two weeks of this years spring campaign, whereas the 2024 campaign vaccinated 208,453 people per day over the same period.
Finally, the following table shows that just over 26% of those aged 75 years and older in England had been vaccinated by the week ending April 13, 2025.
Covid levels in other countries
Other countries continue to monitor the levels of Covid. Most are using hospital admissions for Covid, but some continue to publish waste water surveillance data which provides a better understanding of levels of Covid in the overall community.
The following chart shows the viral load for Covid in wastewater samples for Germany up to April 9, 2025.
The chart shows that Covid levels are continuing to fall following an increase in Autumn 2024 and are now at low levels.
The next chart shows the wastewater surveillance data for the Netherlands which shows a very similar pattern to Germany with Covid levels falling slightly and are now close to their lowest levels in over two years.
Denmark has also continued to monitor Covid levels in wastewater. Although the trend is different from Germany and the Netherlands, the following chart shows that Covid levels continue to be at very low levels, despite a very small increase in the past weeks.
Finally, the CDC publishes data for the United States of America on Covid levels measured by wastewater and Covid hospital admission. The next chart shows the national level of Covid detected in wastewater samples which have continued to fall over the past weeks and are now at low activity levels. Levels are also low across all regions of the USA.
Finally, the following chart depicts the latest admission rate by season from the start of the pandemic until April 5, 2025.
Once again, we can see that Covid levels in the USA as measured by wastewater sampling and hospital admissions are relatively low and are following a similar path to other countries.
In conclusion
Although the amount of data currently being published has fallen, the information available for England show that Covid levels are at relatively low levels and lower than Flu. Recent data also indicates that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also at low levels of Covid.
The Spring 2025 booster campaign has started and by the end of the second week just over 26% of those aged 75 years and older had been vaccinated in England.
Across all home nations, Flu levels are falling fast and are now at low levels. The Winter peak is now over.
The latest Covid levels in several other countries are also relatively low and follow a similar trend to the UK.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence
Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.
Test positivity rates, while not directly estimating the number of Covid infections in the general population, can be a valuable indicator of the infection trend. The panel chart below compares the weekly test positivity rate among hospital patients with respiratory symptoms to the prevalence of Covid in the general population, as reported in the Winter Infection Survey.
The chart shows that the weekly test positivity rates for patients with symptoms of respiratory infections follows the same pattern as the prevalence for Covid reported by the Winter Infection Survey. Since the Winter Infection Survey is based on a representative sample of the general population this supports using test positivity as a useful proxy for infection trends.
Thanks for continuing to do this, Bob - your efforts are very greatly appreciated.
Thank you so much. A very thorough report.