<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Seeing The Forest for the Trees: Covid Weekly Update]]></title><description><![CDATA[A weekly summary of the latest data on Covid.  The main focus will be on England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but will also cover other nations from time to time.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/s/covid-weekly-update</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8Azp!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feaa447aa-273e-4af8-aec3-8347b7a4add3_731x731.png</url><title>Seeing The Forest for the Trees: Covid Weekly Update</title><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/s/covid-weekly-update</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2026 19:49:50 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[bhawkins3@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[bhawkins3@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[bhawkins3@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[bhawkins3@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: April 23, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-april-23-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-april-23-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2026 14:56:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9e225091-7a8c-4640-b82b-f2b2a74d9c11_720x405.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week&#8217;s report highlights the latest trends in respiratory illness activity across England, with updated figures for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. It also shares recent Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America, and wraps up with details on the Spring booster campaign in the UK.</p><blockquote><p><em><strong>Charts for the USA and Canada were updated on Friday, April 24 to reflect the latest published data.</strong></em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the key Covid indicators across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland stayed very low this week, with many hitting record lows, indicating a minimal level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity has remained at baseline levels across all home nations, following typical out-of-season patterns, confirming that this year&#8217;s flu season is over.</strong></p><p>In England, all key hospital indicators of Covid activity have remained well within baseline levels. Flu cases also fell and are circulating at baseline levels.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid remained at baseline levels and hospital admissions are again at record low levels. The BA.3.2 Covid variant remains dominant in Scotland but has not led to any increase in activity.</p><p>In Wales, Covid hospital admissions have fallen slowly over the past few months and are now at their lowest ever level. Flu and RSV cases needing hospitalisation remain very low and are at out-of-season levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity remained at very low levels across all surveillance indicators. Flu and RSV activity was also stable and at baseline levels for all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater stayed very low across all European countries still reporting this data, with the most countries reporting record low activity.</p><p>Currently, the BA.3.2 variant isn&#8217;t causing a rise in Covid activity in countries where it&#8217;s dominant. However, it seems to affect younger people more, though the risk is much lower than that of Flu.</p><p>Deaths due to Covid in England and Wales hit a record low this week, continuing a trend where they made up only 0.2% of all deaths in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2024.</p><p>For the week ending <strong>April 18</strong>, COVID activity across the USA remained at very low levels nationwide. Flu activity also remained at low levels.</p><blockquote><p><strong>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign is <a href="https://www.england.nhs.uk/south/2026/04/13/get-protected-this-spring-with-a-covid-19-vaccination/">now open</a>. Free vaccinations are available for adults aged 75 and older by June 30, 2026; residents in care homes for older adults; and immunosuppressed individuals aged 6 months and above.</strong></p></blockquote><p>In the first week of the campaign in England vaccine coverage reached 14.4% for people aged 75 and over, and 7.1% for those who are immunosuppressed.</p><p>People registered with a GP surgery in England can check their eligibility and book a vaccination appointment through this link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Book a Covid Booster&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;button-wrapper&quot;}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary button-wrapper" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/"><span>Book a Covid Booster</span></a></p><p>Details of booking a free NHS Covid vaccination in Scotland can be found <strong><a href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/covid19vaccine/">here</a></strong>, for Wales <strong><a href="https://www.gov.wales/covid-19-vaccination-programme">here</a></strong>, and in Northern Ireland <strong><a href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/covid-19-vaccine">here</a></strong>. </p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section starts with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It&#8217;s important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lm8CE/3/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8ca493da-766a-49c3-a973-71a873c751fa_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bac2a4ec-6405-4388-98ad-e990df55b5e9_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate fell to its lowest ever level, well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Apr 19, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lm8CE/3/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate fell to its lowest ever level and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates stayed low in all regions and across all ages, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The following chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ACvPZ/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/43b98875-570d-4a66-8e02-3bce1ec4dce7_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/04cf7558-a1b8-45fb-8177-961be6427529_1220x1182.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:585,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England are at historically low levels&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Apr 19, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ACvPZ/1/" width="730" height="585" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at record low levels indicating a very low level of risk.</p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid and flu admissions are still at historically low levels, while RSV admissions are not currently being reported.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FS69d/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f8222101-3c93-446e-9897-75a05614c9a2_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ddfb40cd-1a60-40c6-965e-f441709330fa_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, hospital admissions for&nbsp;Covid and Flu&nbsp;in England remained at very low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Apr 19, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FS69d/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>The Viral Respiratory Diseases in Scotland surveillance report is now published monthly and the April 23, 2026 report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-26-march-2026/">here</a></strong>. The next release is planned for May 21, 2026.</p><p>The latest monthly report confirms that all syndromic respiratory disease indicators remained at baseline activity.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gSwSB/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ff58bbc5-421a-4d0a-8d1a-d03f653d9048_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/43ce1726-bbfc-427c-a1ae-352b7ab99386_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland were at record low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Apr 19, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gSwSB/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All Covid indicators in Scotland were at record low levels this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains very low.  Covid activity measured by wastewater levels fell to their lowest ever level of 1.3 million gene copies per person per day. Hospitalisations also fell for the tenth consecutive week to just 8, marking yet another record low.</p><p>Since January 2026, the BA.3.2 variant has been the dominant strain, making up most of the detected Covid sequences and overtaking the previously leading XFG variant. It is notable that the newly dominant BA.3.2 variant has not led to any increase in Covid activity. However, BA.3.2 appears to affect younger people more with laboratory reporting showing increased test positivity in the 5-14 age group.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. All positivity rates stayed below baseline activity levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xKiA7/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ba6be478-1bbe-4728-be72-9ef272ac9f97_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/174f27b0-5ccb-442f-8168-e579489afe82_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, both&nbsp;Covid and  Flu  test positivity in Scotland remained at very low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Apr 19, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xKiA7/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All laboratory-confirmed Flu  indicators remained below baseline activity, despite a very small increase in test positivity. Hospital admissions due to Flu also dropped this week to 10 from 12 in the previous week.</p><p>RSV activity dropped and remained at baseline out-of-season levels. Test positivity fell slightly, and hospital admissions also fell to 10 from 18 in the previous week.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending <strong>April 19, 2026</strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/y1j3j/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9abe84b2-7cd7-4a17-9b36-d16bef3b4165_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/36ab9434-eec1-488b-8ddc-58f0ed50143d_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid,&nbsp;Flu and  RSV admissions remained very low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Apr 19, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/y1j3j/2/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have fallen slowly over the past few months and once again were very low. Flu and RSV hospital admissions also remained very low.</p><p>Flu and RSV are currently below baseline and have dropped to out-of-season levels. As a result, publication of the weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report for Wales is on hold and will not resume until the 2026-27 season.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ECRX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ECRX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ECRX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ECRX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ECRX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ECRX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:408294,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/195176124?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ECRX!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ECRX!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ECRX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ECRX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F989cc802-a96e-45fa-a1de-ed1fe7b89663_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, remained very low this week. </p><p>Covid activity stayed low across all surveillance indicators. Flu activity has fallen slightly across all indicators and is at baseline. RSV activity is down as well and is also circulating at baseline levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Activity in Other Countries.</h3><p>This section reviews the latest Covid trends in Europe and North America. In all countries across these regions, cases have dropped and remain much lower than during earlier waves. </p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>April 16, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cEaM0/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/adfebc77-18ac-4b3a-86b1-2fd88f1c27a9_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/222fd3d7-95d1-4037-95e9-b30321d422f2_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid in wastewater were at record low levels in most European countries.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Apr 16, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cEaM0/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater stayed very low across all European countries still sharing this data, with record-low activity reported in Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Austria.</p><blockquote><p><em>Data for the USA and Canada was updated on Friday, April 24 to reflect the latest information.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>Apr 18, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA fell and and is now very low, though the situation varies across different parts of the country.</p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n0jjk/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/93423904-7880-4c41-8fd5-d04bc2a7afb6_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9a5793b4-2e50-495c-af7c-a4f40f30a25b_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week in the USA, wastewater activity and all hospital indicators for Covid remained at record low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The activity levels in wastewater sampling, percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, test positivity rate, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Apr 18, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n0jjk/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows that Covid wastewater viral activity levels continued to fall slowly and has stayed within the very low activity level for the week ending <strong>Apr 18, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits, test positivity, and hospital admissions again fell and remained at record low levels.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are also falling and low or very low in most states as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7WjlS/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f5e0e6fc-d7b6-41f7-b60e-bb3ea3351471_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/252cdbf7-d52f-467a-acfa-919b42e081e6_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid activity levels in wastewater remain generally low or very low across most states.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Apr 18, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7WjlS/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>April 18, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It shows that while Covid activity has now dropped to a low level, flu activity also fell and is at low levels nationwide.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Jwn6E/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/067c21ff-89d4-4d8a-bff4-3a317d87c48b_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/943bac51-a4db-4055-8184-8ffae6e2231e_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA continued to fall for  Covid&nbsp;and for&nbsp;Flu.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Apr 18, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Jwn6E/2/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Turning to Canada, the data for week ending <strong>April 18, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels continues to fall slowly and is at very low levels. Data for the other respiratory viruses is only available up Apr 11. Flu A activity has stayed very low, while Flu B activity has peaked although it remains high.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/W5TYG/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3a2743de-490a-4d3d-b34d-3bc0b592325c_1220x960.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/55476f09-6588-453a-b1c8-f660cc20d0a8_1220x1238.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:615,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid and Flu A wastewater levels in Canada in wastewater stayed low, while&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;and&nbsp;Flu B&nbsp;levels have started to fall.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Apr 18, 2026. Data for RSV, Flu A, and Flu B is only available up to Apr 11, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/W5TYG/1/" width="730" height="615" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Spring 2026 Covid Booster campaign.</strong></h3><p>The NHS Spring Covid booster campaign started on April 13, 2026. People aged 75 years and older, residents in care homes for older people, and those aged 6 months and over with a weakened immune system will be offered a dose of the Covid vaccine this spring. These are same criteria used for the Autumn 2025 booster campaign.</p><p>This year&#8217;s Spring vaccination campaign started slightly later than in previous years and will run to the end of June. However, outreach efforts to administer vaccines in underserved communities will continue after this date.</p><p>For the Spring 2026 booster campaign, approved mRNA vaccines from Moderna (Spikevax LP.8.1), as well as a protein-based vaccine from Sanofi (Nuvaxovid JN.1), are being used for those aged 18 years and older. These vaccines are updated variants targeted at recent Omicron strains unlike the Pfizer vaccine used for the Autumn 2025 campaign.</p><p>Full details of eligibility and the vaccines being used for the Spring campaign can be found in the UK Governments Green Book published <strong><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69ba84f46b1db9df335fcb04/Green_Book_chapter_Covid_14a_17_3_26.pdf">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following chart shows the number of Covid vaccinations given by week for each of the booster campaigns in England.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/K7ebK/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c84d523c-73f8-4cda-a213-1a5f82e3c8b8_1220x796.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6e8b0bfe-6317-463e-af00-1a514d8d0f4c_1220x1120.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:512,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;In the first week of the Spring 2026 booster campaign, just under 1.0 million Covid vaccinations were administered in England.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of doses per week by vaccination campaign in England: Week ending Mar 7, 2022 - Apr 19, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/K7ebK/1/" width="730" height="512" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>During the first week of the Spring 2026 campaign, 999,902 booster doses were given, providing 14.4% coverage for people aged 75 and older and 7.1% coverage for those who are immunosuppressed. This is slightly higher than the first week of the Spring 2025 campaign, but 140,870 fewer than the Autumn 2025 campaign, which had the same group of people eligible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is low. Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now at baseline out-of-season levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are very low across European countries.  In the USA, Covid activity has dipped slightly and stayed at very low levels, except in a few states. Flu A activity in both the USA and Canada have dropped to low levels, while Flu B remains high in Canada, though it has already peaked.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: April 16, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-april-16-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-april-16-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 16 Apr 2026 14:22:41 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/458b8d06-8520-4c65-bd64-f694b349b561_773x435.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week&#8217;s report highlights the latest trends in respiratory illness activity across England, with updated figures for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. It also shares recent Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America, and wraps up with the latest update on Covid-related deaths in England and Wales.</p><blockquote><p><em>Charts for the USA and Canada were updated on Friday, April 17 to reflect the latest published data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the key Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland remained very low this week, indicating a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity has remained at baseline levels across all home nations, following typical out-of-season patterns, confirming that this year&#8217;s flu season is over.</strong></p><p>In England, all key hospital indicators of Covid activity have remained well within baseline levels. Flu and RSV cases also fell and are circulating at baseline levels.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid remained at baseline levels and hospital admissions are again at record low levels. The BA.3.2 Covid variant remains dominant in Scotland but has not led to any increase in activity.</p><p>In Wales, Covid hospital admissions have fallen slowly over the past few months and are now at their lowest ever level. Flu and RSV cases needing hospitalisation remain very low and are at out-of-season levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity remained at very low levels across all surveillance indicators. Flu and RSV activity was also stable and at baseline levels for all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater stayed very low across all European countries still reporting this data, with the Netherlands, and Denmark reporting record low activity.</p><p>Currently, the BA.3.2 variant isn&#8217;t causing a rise in Covid activity in countries where it&#8217;s dominant. However, it seems to affect younger people more, though the risk is much lower than that of Flu.</p><p>Deaths due to Covid in England and Wales hit a record low this week, continuing a trend where they made up only 0.2% of all deaths in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2024.</p><p>For the week ending <strong>April 11</strong>, COVID activity across the USA remained at very low levels nationwide. Flu activity also fell to low levels.</p><blockquote><p><strong>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign is <a href="https://www.england.nhs.uk/south/2026/04/13/get-protected-this-spring-with-a-covid-19-vaccination/">now open</a>. Free vaccinations are available for adults aged 75 and older by June 30, 2026; residents in care homes for older adults; and immunosuppressed individuals aged 6 months and above.</strong></p></blockquote><p>People registered with a GP surgery in England can check their eligibility and book a vaccination appointment through this link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Book a Covid Booster&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;button-wrapper&quot;}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary button-wrapper" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/"><span>Book a Covid Booster</span></a></p><p>Details of booking a free NHS Covid vaccination in Scotland can be found <strong><a href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/covid19vaccine/">here</a></strong>, for Wales <strong><a href="https://www.gov.wales/covid-19-vaccination-programme">here</a></strong>, and in Northern Ireland <strong><a href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/covid-19-vaccine">here</a></strong>. </p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section starts with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It&#8217;s important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/z9JQT/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea337698-dbda-4118-89c8-6c06c1ee8ec3_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1cd0cada-729f-459e-a562-9fdc6d775006_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate fell slightly and stayed well below the baseline threshold for activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Apr 12, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/z9JQT/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate fell slightly this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates stayed low in all regions and across all ages, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The following chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/t8pZh/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/25acb7b3-f551-4fc5-8ba1-7295ea50b372_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2499a998-9fd4-4ce4-a411-c09c4f842d6d_1220x1182.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:585,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England stayed very low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Apr 12, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/t8pZh/1/" width="730" height="585" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels indicating a low level of risk.</p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions remain at historic lows, while Flu and RSV cases have peaked and are at baseline activity levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dKPAX/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b67e693f-c701-4314-99c5-7b17312bc6e9_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bc23a537-92a7-4017-9ea2-214af67912e8_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, hospital admissions for&nbsp;Covid, Flu&nbsp;and&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;in England remained at very low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Apr 12, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dKPAX/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>The <strong>final </strong>weekly Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report for this season can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-26-march-2026/">here</a></strong>. The surveillance report will now be issued monthly with the next release planned for April 23, 2026.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1qe50/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2ef09857-5418-46cd-8840-759ee5177625_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/91f25657-24af-4605-afca-99ac720dad65_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland continue to remain at very low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Apr 12, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1qe50/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All Covid indicators in Scotland remained at very low levels this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains very low.</p><p>This week, Covid test positivity fell once again to 0.3%, with overall activity well below baseline levels. Hospitalisations dropped for the ninth consecutive week to just 11, marking yet another record low.</p><p>Since January 2026, the BA.3.2 variant has been the dominant strain, making up most of the detected Covid sequences and overtaking the previously leading XFG variant. It is notable that the newly dominant BA.3.2 variant has not led to any increase in Covid activity.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. All positivity rates stayed below baseline activity levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Zmgxi/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3d5fa8f4-8948-45a1-8c4a-1ab3c94a667b_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9dd6f9c2-f892-460c-b58c-face2ea4e95f_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, both&nbsp;Covid and  Flu  test positivity in Scotland fell to record low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Apr 12, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Zmgxi/2/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All laboratory-confirmed Flu  indicators remained at baseline activity, with a slight fall in overall test positivity. Hospital admissions due to Flu also dropped this week to 10 from 22 in the previous week.</p><p>RSV activity dropped and remained at baseline out-of-season levels. Test positivity dropped, and hospital admissions also fell to 15 from 22 in the previous week.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending <strong>April 12, 2026</strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5Hjd8/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cc2bef06-eca4-4d23-a5ac-a2dfd119975f_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ef100cec-0dca-4e6a-8ce7-2e2e48b53dd1_1220x1064.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid&nbsp;again hit their lowest ever levels, while Flu and  RSV admissions stayed very low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Apr 12, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5Hjd8/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have fallen slowly over the past few months and once again are at their lowest ever level. Flu and RSV hospital admissions also remained very low.</p><p>Flu and RSV are currently below baseline and have dropped to out-of-season levels. As a result, publication of the weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report for Wales is on hold and will not resume until the 2026-27 season.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J15K!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J15K!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J15K!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J15K!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J15K!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J15K!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:416744,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/194380185?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J15K!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J15K!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J15K!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J15K!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35cb7fc9-d6f7-47b9-9712-2a69a77712ad_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, remained very low this week. </p><p>Covid activity stayed low across all surveillance indicators. Flu activity has fallen slightly across all indicators and is now at baseline. RSV activity is down as well and is also circulating at baseline levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Activity in Other Countries.</h3><p>This section reviews the latest Covid trends in Europe and North America. In all countries across these regions, cases have dropped and remain much lower than during earlier waves. </p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>April 9, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cFoXy/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/16a02f48-3c18-4614-a723-7bf39c1bd343_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fa5eec80-38f5-4e37-9aca-dd7a332bee95_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid in wastewater were at record low levels in several European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Apr 9, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cFoXy/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater stayed very low across all European countries still sharing this data, with record-low activity reported everywhere except France.</p><blockquote><p><em>Data for the USA and Canada was updated on Friday, April 17 to reflect the latest information.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>Apr 11, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA fell and and is now very low, though the situation varies across different parts of the country.</p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nQzPN/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/daff1ed0-5cc7-4c35-9e15-fbc8910463df_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5781612b-1cc8-41e7-8a51-73a0ff851350_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week in the USA, wastewater activity and all hospital indicators for Covid fell fell to record low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The activity levels in wastewater sampling, percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, test positivity rate, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Apr 11, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nQzPN/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows that Covid wastewater viral activity levels continued to fall slowly and has stayed within the very low activity level for the week ending <strong>Apr 11, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits, test positivity, and hospital admissions also fell and remained at record low levels.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are also falling and low or very low in most states as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dupgv/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/43552fba-88f1-4206-a835-be13853b356a_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e0684e10-d316-41a7-9702-206959f4a8e1_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid activity levels in wastewater are generally low or very low across most states.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Apr 11, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dupgv/1/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>April 11, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It shows that while Covid activity has now dropped to a low level, flu activity also fell and is at low levels nationwide.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/p1ruq/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a3601196-6499-4cab-a2cf-d35782587a1e_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3ed5be57-74b0-42f4-bfd8-b4fc7dd1763f_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA fell to low levels for  Covid&nbsp;and for&nbsp;Flu.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Apr 11, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/p1ruq/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Turning to Canada, the data for week ending <strong>April 11, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels continues to fall slowly and is at very low levels. Flu A activity has stayed very low, while Flu B activity has peaked although it remains relatively high.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TSvLV/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/73a02c10-15e1-4475-9b5d-825c4f9d0816_1220x960.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/55e309f8-63ba-4be1-8257-3060876c9364_1220x1238.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:615,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid and Flu A wastewater levels in Canada in wastewater stayed low, while&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;and&nbsp;Flu B&nbsp;levels have started to fall.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, RSV, Flu A, and Flu B levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Apr 11, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TSvLV/1/" width="730" height="615" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Covid deaths in England and Wales</strong></h3><p>The Office of National Statistics (ONS) releases weekly reports on deaths listed on certificates due to or involving Covid. The data covers both England and Wales. </p><p>The first chart in this section shows the cumulative number of deaths from the start of the pandemic <strong>due to Covid</strong>, where Covid is listed as the primary cause of death on the death certificate. To show the varying impact of different variants, the colour changes when a new variant becomes dominant.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kbE4i/4/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/08ce65d2-1946-4027-8100-8f9083aa6b6e_1220x796.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cdfa2991-8d97-4067-a4ed-94a5b9f6f5c2_1220x1036.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:512,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Cumulative deaths due to Covid in England and Wales throughout the pandemic by major variant.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Deaths due to Covid in England and Wales by week registered: January 4, 2020 to Apr 3, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kbE4i/4/" width="730" height="512" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows the major impact of the Alpha variant from September 2020 to March 2021, which, while slightly less virulent, was far more transmissible than the original Wuhan strain. From March to June 2021, the death rate nearly levelled off as most people were vaccinated and lockdown restrictions eased. Starting in July 2021, a series of even more transmissible variants&#8212;first Delta, then Omicron&#8212;took over, causing the death rate to rise, though their impact was much less severe than Alpha&#8217;s.</p><p>Since 2024, several variants have become dominant and grown in prevalence, but none have caused a significant spike in the death rate, which has steadily declined during this time. The next chart illustrates this fall by comparing weekly deaths due to Covid in England and Wales across 2024 and 2025 with those in the first quarter of 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tPyEL/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b889052d-9fb2-4486-93f9-a6b9bf3859e8_1220x738.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0fb6677d-e51c-4ae0-b263-a3aa19406633_1220x946.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:467,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Weekly deaths due to Covid in England and Wales remain much lower in 2026  than in 2024 or 2025.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Yearly comparison of deaths due to Covid by week registered in England and Wales for 2024, 2025, and first quarter of 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tPyEL/1/" width="730" height="467" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that deaths due to Covid are at there lowest ever level with just 11 deaths reported for the week ending April 3, 2026.  This has been a continuing trend as deaths due to Covid were lower in almost every week of 2025 compared to the same weeks in 2024. </p><p>The final chart, showing the cumulative Covid deaths for those same years, makes this even clearer.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/58DSW/3/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1eda3481-6f2a-48d0-a051-072a662541b8_1220x740.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dc2ecb04-7e10-4c4a-bdeb-7384dca09178_1220x948.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:468,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Cumulative deaths due to Covid in England and Wales remain much lower in 2026  than in 2024 or 2025.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Yearly comparison of cumulative deaths due to Covid by week registered in England and Wales for 2024, 2025, and first quarter of 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/58DSW/3/" width="730" height="468" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>In 2025, there were 3,087 deaths, less than half the 6,593 recorded in 2024. More notably, this made up 0.54% of all deaths in 2025, a drop from 1.17% the year before. By the first quarter of 2026, the share of deaths due to Covid had fallen even further to just 0.22%.</p><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is low. Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now at baseline out-of-season levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are very low across European countries.  In the USA, Covid activity has dipped slightly and stayed at very low levels, except in a few states. Flu A activity in both the USA and Canada have dropped to low levels, while Flu B remains high in Canada, though it has already peaked.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: April 9, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-april-9-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-april-9-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2026 13:46:40 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a1b8ca6e-7636-492e-9695-e4c04638d098_768x469.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><blockquote><p><em>Charts for the USA and Canada were updated on Friday, April 10 to reflect the latest published data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the key Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland remained very low this week, indicating a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity has returned to baseline levels across all home nations, following typical out-of-season patterns, confirming that this year&#8217;s flu season has come to an end.</strong></p><p>In England, all key hospital indicators of Covid activity have stayed well within baseline levels. Flu and RSV cases also fell and are circulating at baseline levels.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid remained at baseline levels and hospital admissions are at record  low levels. The BA.3.2 Covid variant remains dominant in Scotland but has not led to any increase in activity.</p><p>In Wales, Covid hospital admissions have fallen slowly over the past few months and are now at their lowest ever level. Flu and RSV cases needing hospitalisation remain very low and are now at out-of-season levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity stayed at very low levels across all surveillance indicators. Flu and RSV activity was also stable and at baseline levels for all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater stayed very low across all European countries still reporting this data, with the Netherlands, and Denmark reporting record low activity.</p><p>Currently, the BA.3.2 variant isn&#8217;t causing a rise in Covid activity in countries where it&#8217;s dominant. However, it seems to affect younger people more, though the risk is much lower than that of Flu.</p><p>For the week ending <strong>April 4</strong>, COVID activity across the USA remained at very low levels nationwide. Flu activity also fell this week, with wastewater levels now very low in most states.</p><p>Covid cases in Hong Kong have stayed very low for six months, while in New Zealand, activity rose in recent months but is now on the decline.</p><p>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign is set to run from April 13 to June 30, 2026 and will use the same eligibility criteria as the Autumn 2025 campaign.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section starts with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It&#8217;s important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/i0L7W/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f95d7f90-e26d-4cf7-919e-4013a5399b15_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6e89b068-c742-47b2-a771-9db88d5e9748_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate fell slightly and remained well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Apr 5, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/i0L7W/2/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate fell slightly this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates stayed low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The following chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iiTrw/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cbd2ffbd-1ff3-424c-97b5-a2df8c587cfb_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/eb8d792b-2278-460d-8884-6512026d3472_1220x1182.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:585,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained very low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Apr 5, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iiTrw/1/" width="730" height="585" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels indicating a low level of risk.</p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions remain at historic lows, while Flu and RSV cases have peaked and are at baseline activity levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XgUoV/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c191d60a-d12f-41da-8848-788d4d75f5e3_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8fa21937-45bc-4bdc-8b65-2b91a0885c2a_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, hospital admissions for&nbsp;Covid, Flu&nbsp;and&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;in England stayed at very low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Apr 5, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XgUoV/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>The <strong>final </strong>weekly Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report for this season can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-26-march-2026/">here</a></strong>. The surveillance report will now be issued monthly before restarting weekly publication from October 8, 2026.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5tzTk/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/998db416-ab1a-45e5-91e8-703ef2c22689_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f99abddf-5718-4a67-8f64-141a1ced67ab_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland continue to fall to record low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Apr 5, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5tzTk/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All Covid indicators in Scotland remained at record low levels this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains very low.</p><p>This week, Covid test positivity fell slightly to 0.6%, with overall activity below baseline levels. Hospitalisations dropped for the eighth straight week to just 14, marking yet another record low.</p><p>Since January 2026, the BA.3.2 variant has been the dominant strain, making up most of the detected Covid sequences and overtaking the previously leading XFG variant. It is notable that the newly dominant BA.3.2 variant has not led to any increase in Covid activity.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. All positivity rates stayed below baseline activity levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/B1KWf/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f124a9a9-a8b5-4a99-95f4-d4a86438cb83_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3f0c7f6f-9c72-4c95-ab10-0ebf8a28215b_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, both&nbsp;Covid and  Flu  test positivity in Scotland stayed at very low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Apr 5, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/B1KWf/2/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All laboratory-confirmed Flu  indicators remained at baseline activity, with a slight increase in overall test positivity. However, hospital admissions due to Flu remained steady at 21, just one more than the previous week.</p><p>RSV activity dropped and remained at baseline out-of-season levels. Test positivity dropped, and hospital admissions also decreased to 22 from 29 in the previous week.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending <strong>April 5, 2026</strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aM0r2/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9df40813-3f04-4535-b0d6-001f403603d8_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/019d6734-b8a3-478c-b071-ae75746a28fa_1220x1064.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid&nbsp;hit their lowest ever levels, while Flu and  RSV admissions remained very low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Apr 5, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aM0r2/2/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have fallen slowly over the past few months and are now at their lowest ever level. Flu and RSV cases needing hospitalisation remained very low.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>confirms that<strong> </strong>Flu and RSV are currently below baseline and have dropped to out-of-season levels. As a result, reports on hospital admissions for acute respiratory infections will be put on hold and resume in the 2026-27 season.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VB6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VB6!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VB6!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VB6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VB6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VB6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:444137,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/193661679?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VB6!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VB6!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VB6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VB6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17e5bb0d-4542-4d3e-b68d-34934d8b6bc3_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, continued to fall this week and remained very low. </p><p>Covid activity has dropped across all surveillance indicators, with levels remaining low. Flu activity has also fallen across all indicators and is now at baseline. RSV activity is down as well and is also circulating at baseline levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Activity in Other Countries.</h3><p>This section reviews the latest Covid trends in Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific. In most countries across these regions, cases have dropped and remain lower than during earlier waves. The exception is New Zealand, where Covid activity is gradually increasing.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>April 2, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SzXpi/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7502fc52-fa62-4ac6-b66e-261524dfa96e_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/73998046-59b3-4e8b-ab64-fdce7e54a863_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid in wastewater remained at very low levels across European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Apr 2, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SzXpi/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained low across all European countries still reporting this data, with the Netherlands, and Denmark all reporting record low activity levels. This week, Sweden&#8217;s data wasn&#8217;t released and was substituted with Switzerland&#8217;s.</p><blockquote><p><em>Data for the USA and Canada was updated on Friday, April 10 to reflect the latest information.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>Apr 4, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA fell and and is now very low, though the situation varies across different parts of the country.</p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v15gH/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/00b0221d-3dc3-49c8-b7ba-45c917008216_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4ee1a60d-a717-4693-bbf0-916e66a700d9_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week in the USA, wastewater activity and all hospital indicators for Covid fell stayed at very low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The activity levels in wastewater sampling, percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, test positivity rate, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Apr 4, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v15gH/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows that Covid wastewater viral activity levels continued to fall slowly and is stayed within the very low activity level for the week ending <strong>Apr 4, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits, test positivity, and hospital admissions also fell and remained at low levels.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are also falling and low or very low in most states as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4Rl4A/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/58eca4f6-34e0-4d29-931c-3b251cfc4814_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7bb9980f-5025-4138-9d2d-9bb92bbff9de_1220x1284.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:638,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid activity levels in wastewater are generally low or very low across most states, though some Southern states are seeing higher levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Apr 4, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4Rl4A/2/" width="730" height="638" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>April 4, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It shows that while Covid activity has now dropped to a low level, flu activity also fell and is approaching low levels nationwide.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QgJOI/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/25a3f87c-7ab6-4e2d-bbac-b9b5782112f0_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/17067971-3853-44f4-99be-949a8149cd98_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA continued to fall for  Covid&nbsp;and for&nbsp;Flu.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Apr 4, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QgJOI/2/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Wastewater measurements also show that Flu activity is declining in most states, with all but Montana, West Virginia, and Alaska reporting very low levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7MO4c/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9f24fb11-43d4-4e25-aa6a-bd7bfad4f957_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b3ba37ee-d7a9-4d0c-9bbd-328cce6e3749_1220x1184.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:584,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater stayed very low in almost all states.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Apr 4, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7MO4c/1/" width="730" height="584" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Turning to Canada, the data for week ending <strong>March 28, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels fell significantly and are now at very low levels. Flu A activity has stayed very low, while Flu B activity continued to increase and remained at high levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/66Gpz/6/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/93d9d110-6165-4ec3-8b7f-60467c57ad20_1220x960.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4b94f6ed-d788-4b50-9210-84eb9f08183c_1220x1238.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:615,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid and Flu A wastewater levels in Canada in wastewater stayed low,&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;levels stayed high, and&nbsp;Flu B&nbsp;levels increased once again.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, RSV, Flu A, and Flu B levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 28, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/66Gpz/6/" width="730" height="615" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This chart shows the key Covid activity indicators for Hong Kong up to week ending <strong>March 21, 2026</strong>, highlighting that activity has stayed low over the past six months.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7ZpcF/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ad5e367f-606d-4077-9b14-18502a86444b_1220x488.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/766e7e85-0276-46b6-8a2a-ffa3556ea092_1220x750.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:369,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The main indicators of Covid activity in Hong Kong have remained very low for the past six months.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), test positivity rate (%),&nbsp;and average consultation rate (per 1,000 consultations) for Covid in Hong Kong by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Apr 4, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7ZpcF/1/" width="730" height="369" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>In contrast, New Zealand presents a mixed picture, with Covid levels in wastewater climbing since the start of the year, even as reported cases stay relatively low. However, the most recent data shows that Covid activity is now falling suggesting this recent small wave is over.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VT1jO/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ba3ba58e-615a-451c-ae5e-34e25511f223_1220x488.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1b1a7a0e-9c4f-45bb-82a5-e385d41412fc_1220x720.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:354,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;In New Zealand, Covid levels found in wastewater and reported cases are now falling after the recent increase.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Covid levels and Covid cases in New Zealand by week:  Jan 7, 2024 to Mar 22, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VT1jO/1/" width="730" height="354" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>You can find more information about local Covid activity levels in New Zealand<strong> <a href="https://esr-cri.shinyapps.io/wastewater/#region=Auckland&amp;site=Auckland%20Region&amp;log_or_linear=linear&amp;period=eighteenMonthsButton">here</a></strong>.</p><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is low. Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now at baseline out-of-season levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are very low across European countries.  In the USA, Covid activity fell slightly and is now at very low levels, but remains higher in only a few states.  Flu A activity in both the USA and Canada has fallen to low levels, although Flu B activity continues to increase in Canada. </p><p>Covid activity in Hong Kong has remained very low for many months, whereas activity levels in New Zealand has increased slowly over the past month although the most recent data suggest this small wave is over.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: April 2, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-april-2-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-april-2-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2026 15:30:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5cb31ef7-9250-43bd-8589-52709a1e1e80_759x622.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. Finally, there is a section on the Covid BA.3.2 variant which has recently been in the news.</p><blockquote><p><em>The USA charts were updated on Friday, April 3 with the latest available data. However, due to the Easter holidays, Canada&#8217;s data release has been delayed until next week.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>This week, the key Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland again remained very low, indicating a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity has returned to baseline levels across all home nations, following typical out-of-season patterns, confirming that this year&#8217;s flu season has come to an end.</strong></p><p>In England, all key hospital indicators of Covid activity have stayed well within baseline levels. Flu and RSV cases also fell and are circulating at baseline levels.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid remained at baseline levels and hospital admissions are again at record low levels. The BA.3.2 Covid variant remains dominant in Scotland but has not led to any increase in activity.</p><p>Over the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed low, while Flu and RSV admissions remained very low.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity was stable across all surveillance indicators and stayed at low levels. Flu and RSV activity was also stable and low for all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater stayed low across all European countries still reporting this data, with Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark all reporting record low activity levels.</p><p>Currently, the BA.3.2 variant isn&#8217;t causing a rise in Covid activity in countries where it&#8217;s dominant. However, it seems to affect younger people more, though the risk is much lower than that of the flu.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA for week ending <strong>March 28 </strong>fell again this week and is now at a very low levels nationwide. Flu activity also fell this week with wastewater activity now very low in all states except for South Dakota</p><p>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign is set to run from April 13 to June 30, 2026 and will use the same eligibility criteria as the Autumn 2025 campaign.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section starts with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It&#8217;s important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ntfh5/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/14f8aaf0-4e4d-4687-890b-f815ff6217bc_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/12fce980-8228-43d7-b4d3-db701143ef48_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate increased slightly but remained well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Mar 29, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ntfh5/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate rose slightly this week but continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates stayed low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The following chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JV3ez/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6666821e-e242-4248-8124-25497f3e106f_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4e8fc378-d081-4458-9cf8-eade1480f3fd_1220x1182.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:585,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained very low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Mar 29, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JV3ez/2/" width="730" height="585" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels indicating a low level of risk.</p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions remain at historic lows, while Flu and RSV cases have peaked and are at baseline activity levels. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DpC5h/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3b4297f9-421a-4c44-8acd-9870117e1c07_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d4f8d9c5-eeba-4def-8797-79bfc3a8bd9c_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, hospital admissions for&nbsp;Covid, Flu&nbsp;and&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;in England remained at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Mar 29, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DpC5h/2/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The <strong>final </strong>weekly Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report for this season can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-26-march-2026/">here</a></strong>. The surveillance report will now be issued monthly before restarting weekly publication from October 8, 2026.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vyJQ3/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d625cbc5-62b7-4710-beeb-1ed03f1aef9a_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/67b2e952-ab79-4ee3-964a-7cd4b072ded3_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland remain at record low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 29, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vyJQ3/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All Covid indicators in Scotland remained at historically low levels this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains very low.</p><p>This week, Covid test positivity held steady at 0.6%, with overall activity staying at baseline. Hospitalisations dropped for the seventh straight week to just 13, marking yet another record low.</p><p>The BA.3.2 variant remained dominant accounting for the majority of detected Covid sequences, replacing the previously dominant XFG variant. It is notable that the newly dominant BA.3.2 variant has not led to any increase in Covid activity.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. All positivity rates stayed below baseline activity levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SPhq4/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/06e3cb77-abaf-4907-a59d-a2d61e84a803_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/102dde1f-6ff2-4629-acbe-459539eb56bd_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, both&nbsp;Covid and  Flu  test positivity in Scotland remained at very low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 29, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SPhq4/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p></p><p>All laboratory-confirmed Flu  indicators remained at baseline activity, with a slight increase in overall test positivity. Flu-related hospital admissions held steady this week at 21.</p><p>RSV activity dropped and remained at baseline levels. Test positivity fell slightly, while hospital admissions fell to 28 from 37 in the prior week.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending <strong>March 29, 2026</strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GEZZF/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/baa0e398-5eca-4b9d-8563-d36eac7799a4_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d6f6723e-e759-46ad-94f7-0db08f6b9006_1220x1064.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid&nbsp;remained at low levels while Flu and  RSV admissions stayed at very low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 29, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GEZZF/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have remained steady over the past few months and are low. The <strong><a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection/viz/COVID-19genomicsurveillance/Summary">latest data</a></strong> on Covid variants shows no sign of the BA.3.2 variant in Wales. Based on the limited number of cases sequenced, the most common variant for the week ending February 16, 2026, was PQ.2, found in 39% of the sequenced cases.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that Flu is at baseline levels and is now at out of season levels. Confirmed case numbers have stayed very low in the current week, as has test positivity.  Covid case numbers have remained stable in recent weeks and are at low levels. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity fell overall and is now below baseline intensity levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-W8!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-W8!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-W8!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-W8!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-W8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-W8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:436510,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/192901698?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-W8!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-W8!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-W8!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-W8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c9c5e93-06b0-45f3-80da-8ab21a22967f_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, continued to fall this week and remained relatively low. </p><p>Covid activity has dropped across all surveillance indicators, with levels remaining low. Flu activity has also fallen across all indicators and is now at baseline. RSV activity is down as well and is circulating at low levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3>BA.3.2 Covid Variant Overview</h3><p>The BA.3.2 Covid variant was first detected in South Africa in November 2024 and has been classified as a &#8216;variant under monitoring&#8217; by the World Health Organization (WHO) since December 2025. In its <strong><a href="https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/documents/epp/tracking-sars-cov-2/05122025_ba.3.2_ire.pdf?sfvrsn=a29c3612_4">latest risk assessment</a></strong> on December 5, 2025, the WHO rated BA.3.2 as low risk, noting low growth advantage, low likelihood of immune escape, and low severity. However, they did point out some laboratory evidence suggesting BA.3.2 might trigger a weaker immune response from prior infection or vaccination.</p><p>More recently, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published a report on the <strong><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7510a1.htm">Early Detection and Surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 Variant BA.3.2 &#8212; Worldwide</a></strong> with data up to February 2026.  The report found that as of <strong>11 February 2026</strong>, BA.3.2 has been detected in 23 countries. Whilst early detections were sporadic, numbers had increased from September 2025.</p><p>The CDC report found that in some European countries (Denmark, Germany, Netherlands), it reached about 30% of sequenced samples, though without a major rise in overall Covid incidence. In the USA by February 2026 BA.3.2 had been found in 132 wastewater samples across 25 states providing an early signal of increasing prevalence.</p><p>The following chart shows the number of variants found most frequently in the Netherlands by week since week ending Nov 16, 2025. The two variants circulating  most widely are the XFG variant shown in green and BA.3.2 depicted in brown, which is now the most common variant.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WL07k/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ce40e6cd-96e4-4b90-817c-4833e9d882c6_1220x838.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b81f305a-3b3d-4322-b042-7110fe882541_1220x1096.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:517,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The XFG and BA.3.2 variants are circulating widely in the Netherlands, with BA.3.2 the most common in 2026.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of variants found most frequently by week in the Netherlands: Nov 16, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WL07k/2/" width="730" height="517" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Although BA.3.2 has been the most common variant since early 2026, albeit with only a small number of cases sequenced, Covid activity in the Netherlands has dropped significantly, according to wastewater monitoring.  This would indicate that BA.3.2 is not presenting an increased overall risk.</p><p>Although WHO and CDC assess the risk from BA.3.2 as low there have been some <strong><a href="https://bsky.app/profile/ryanhisner.bsky.social/post/3mi7l33my6c2p">reports on social media </a></strong>suggesting that BA.3.2 is preferentially impacting children. The remainder of this section explores this suggestion using data from Scotland.</p><p>The March 2026 <strong><a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/38158/week-12-26-03-26-viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report.pdf">Viral Respiratory Diseases in Scotland Surveillance Report</a></strong> found that while XFG and NB.1.8.1 were the most common variants in December 2025, BA.3.2 started making up a larger share of sequences from October 2025 and has been the dominant variant since the week ending January 22, 2026. Unfortunately, low sequencing numbers, especially within the latest reporting period, will impact the accuracy of the prevalence estimates.</p><p>The following chart highlights the period in grey when BA.3.2 becomes dominant on the four indicators used to track Covid activity in Scotland.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9x0Vr/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e9783f8f-30b5-4083-b617-7a3a7bd268a0_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9ef6d1f0-04e9-47bc-b6c3-419739b16aff_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;In Scotland, the BA.3.2 variant caused a very small rise in the key indicators of Covid activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jan 5, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9x0Vr/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows a slight rise in Covid activity when BA.3.2 became the dominant variant, which was much smaller than the increases seen in other waves. However, the following chart demonstrates a different pattern by age for test positivity.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jDRJ7/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2589057a-e4ca-4098-9272-ca27c0fe5c94_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6303c4a2-8347-413a-8c5d-6ef20432217e_1220x1114.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:551,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;In Scotland, the positivity rate rose the most among the youngest as Covid BA.3.2 became the dominant variant.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity by age in Scotland: Jan 5, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jDRJ7/2/" width="730" height="551" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that, unlike other age groups, children aged one to four had a higher test positivity rate when BA.3.2 was dominant than in the previous wave, while those aged five to fourteen had roughly the same positivity rate.</p><p>The following chart shows a similar trend, with the hospital admission rate (per 100,000) for those under 18 experiencing the biggest jump and surpassing all other age groups when BA.3.2 was the dominant variant. However, it&#8217;s important to note that during this period, Flu posed a much greater risk to those under 18, with peak admission rates of 30.9 compared to just 4.9 for Covid BA.3.2.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CkyqK/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/39a84965-230b-4ec4-a852-86b851cb1b0a_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/23da4484-e0ba-4671-8406-db0482cc97d1_1220x1164.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:578,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;In Scotland, hospital admissions are highest among those under 18 when the Covid BA.3.2 variant is the dominant strain.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people in Scotland: Jan 5, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CkyqK/2/" width="730" height="578" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>In conclusion, the data from Scotland supports the observation that the Covid BA.3.2 variant preferentially impacts children.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Activity in Other Countries.</h3><p>This section reviews the latest Covid trends in Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific. In most countries across these regions, cases have dropped and remain lower than during earlier waves. The exception is New Zealand, where Covid activity is gradually increasing.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>March 26, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/EOvds/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6e14b6b7-a2f8-4f31-8c0f-52840b3b9e99_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f02e0d02-778a-4731-8197-b3452ef11a11_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid in wastewater stayed at record low levels across European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Mar 26, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/EOvds/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained low across all European countries still reporting this data, with Germany, France, and Denmark all reporting record low activity levels.</p><blockquote><p><em>The USA charts were updated on Friday, April 3 with the latest available data. However, due to the Easter holidays, Canada&#8217;s data release has been delayed until next week.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>March 28, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA fell and and is now very low, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zqqFt/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3b0bc556-d186-41a7-aaf1-9c331d264b7f_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2833972e-20e7-4d60-9a19-8d14dfe05974_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week in the USA, wastewater activity and all hospital indicators for Covid fell remained at very low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The activity levels in wastewater sampling, percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, test positivity rate, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 28, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zqqFt/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows that Covid wastewater viral activity levels continued to fall slowly and is stayed within the very low activity level for the week ending <strong>March 28, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits, test positivity, and hospital admissions also fell and remained at low levels.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are also falling and low in most states as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5rpZX/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/90222294-55d2-4f1e-885b-77f82be0c483_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c17fc094-9eec-49f8-b1dc-9e019bcd1fa9_1220x1284.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:638,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid activity levels in wastewater are low or very low in almost all states although levels in Southern states are increasing.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Mar 28, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5rpZX/2/" width="730" height="638" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>March 28, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It shows that while Covid activity has now dropped to a low level, flu activity also fell but stayed at a moderate level nationwide.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vCmP4/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e9feee2f-685e-481d-b634-0e1004e5f1ff_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ae27c7cb-323f-4a8f-ade5-cbcdb6c97fac_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA once again fell for  Covid&nbsp;and for&nbsp;Flu.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Mar 28, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vCmP4/2/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Flu activity, according to wastewater measurements, tells a different story, with every state except South Dakota reporting very low levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zwrOw/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/09af64b9-f611-4ffe-9a8d-d1fb3761c0ab_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aa2fc36b-1c68-4d5a-97b8-1970fdba6c9d_1220x1184.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:584,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater are very low in almost all states.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Mar 28, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zwrOw/2/" width="730" height="584" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Turning to Canada, the data for week ending <strong>March 21, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels fell significantly and are now at very low levels. However, there are regional variations, with central provinces showing slightly lower activity.  Flu A activity has stayed very low, while Flu B activity remained at high levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/66Gpz/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/44abe673-c7ab-4f2f-9cb4-751e03746e7e_1220x960.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/82332f08-944c-41d6-83ee-0eabcb36651d_1220x1238.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:615,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid activity in Canada in wastewater fell to low levels, Flu A activity remained low, and&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;and&nbsp;Flu B&nbsp;levels stayed high.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, RSV, Flu A, and Flu B levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 21, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/66Gpz/2/" width="730" height="615" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is low. Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now at baseline levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are very low across European countries  In the USA, Covid activity fell slightly and is now at very low levels, but remains higher in a few states.  Flu A activity in both the USA and Canada has fallen to low levels, although Flu B activity has increased in Canada. </p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: March 26, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-march-26-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-march-26-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 15:14:24 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5cfa9b0-8358-4fa8-ba02-5a3e5dd5f1dd_652x435.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><blockquote><p><em>Charts for the USA and Canada were updated on Friday, March 27 to reflect the latest published data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>This week, the key Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland remained very low, indicating a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity has returned to baseline levels across all home nations, following typical out-of-season patterns, confirming that this year&#8217;s flu season has come to an end.</strong></p><p>In England, all key hospital indicators of Covid activity have stayed well within baseline levels. Flu and RSV cases also fell and are circulating at baseline levels.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid remained at baseline levels and hospital admissions are at record  low levels. The BA.3.2 Covid variant remains dominant in Scotland but has not led to any increase in activity.</p><p>Over the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed low, while Flu and RSV admissions remained very low.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity was stable across all surveillance indicators and stayed at low levels. Flu and RSV activity was also stable and low for all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater stayed low across all European countries still reporting this data, with Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark all reporting record low activity levels.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA for week ending <strong>March 21 </strong>fell again this week and is now at a very low levels nationwide. Flu activity also fell this week with wastewater activity now low or very low in all states.</p><p>Covid cases in Hong Kong have stayed very low for six months, while in New Zealand, activity rose in recent months but is now on the decline.</p><p>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign is set to run from April 13 to June 30, 2026 and will use the same eligibility criteria as the Autumn 2025 campaign.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section starts with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It&#8217;s important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1r9ro/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1bd32ffe-59ab-4878-9843-9797b95919d4_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/76381df8-7a44-4d92-8ef0-7714111b7be3_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate fell slightly and remained well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Mar 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1r9ro/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate fell slightly this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates stayed low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The following chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yYqix/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e37282be-7a17-4c5e-808b-d87ac2ad5e6e_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/131e2f17-4c17-482a-8003-a2ae050d1d38_1220x1182.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:585,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained very low.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Mar 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yYqix/1/" width="730" height="585" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels indicating a low level of risk.</p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions remain at historic lows, while Flu and RSV cases have peaked and are at baseline activity levels. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RaLPh/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/78da2d91-c31f-402f-83d8-b571fa30ca09_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/309bf2bc-4466-4c5f-863d-4f96af31da8d_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, hospital admissions for&nbsp;Covid, Flu&nbsp;and&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;in England remained at low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Mar 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RaLPh/2/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The <strong>final </strong>weekly Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report for this season can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-26-march-2026/">here</a></strong>. The surveillance report will now be issued monthly before restarting weekly publication from October 8, 2026.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dBRXW/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/23352cdf-f226-4751-beed-48fb24f86ad5_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e3df64fe-efec-4880-8948-5c9383b06707_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland remain at historically low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dBRXW/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All Covid indicators in Scotland remained very low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>This week, Covid test positivity held steady at 1.5%, with overall activity staying at baseline. Hospitalisations dropped for the sixth straight week to just 16, marking yet another record low.</p><p>The BA.3.2 variant remained dominant accounting for the majority of detected Covid sequences, replacing the previously dominant XFG variant. It is notable that the newly dominant BA.3.2 variant has not led to any increase in Covid activity.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. All positivity rates stayed below baseline activity levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AgTju/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2e7284cc-4161-4199-b35a-7ec91f0421d5_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a51038ca-c08d-40fa-b7f9-560532aeef32_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, both&nbsp;Covid and  Flu  test positivity in Scotland remained at very low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 22, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AgTju/2/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p></p><p>All laboratory-confirmed Flu  indicators remained at baseline activity, with a slight decrease in overall test positivity. Hospital admissions due to Flu also fell from 32 to 18 this week.</p><p>RSV activity dropped and remained at baseline levels. Test positivity fell slightly, while hospital admissions held steady at 35, just one more than the previous week.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending <strong>March 22, 2026</strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HMKHC/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/52661acb-1d46-400d-978e-eb829a225812_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/59e0e8b5-c85f-44f6-aa29-f279f136ac60_1220x1064.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid&nbsp;remained at low levels while Flu and  RSV admissions stayed at very low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HMKHC/2/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have remained steady over the past few months and are low. Flu cases needing hospitalisation remained very low and are much lower than for Covid. RSV admissions also fell and are at low levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that while Flu is at baseline levels and is now at out of season levels. Confirmed case numbers have stayed very low in the current week, as has test positivity. </p><p>Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable in recent weeks and are at low levels. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity fell overall and is now below baseline intensity levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_CHH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_CHH!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_CHH!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_CHH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_CHH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_CHH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:438800,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/192198416?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_CHH!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_CHH!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_CHH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_CHH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35891504-6f78-41ed-bb60-d7c6a3a2a362_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, continued to fall this week and remained relatively low. </p><p>Covid activity has dropped across all surveillance indicators, with levels remaining low. Flu activity has also fallen across all indicators and is now at baseline. RSV activity is down as well and is circulating at low levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Activity in Other Countries.</h3><p>This section reviews the latest Covid trends in Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific. In most countries across these regions, cases have dropped and remain lower than during earlier waves. The exception is New Zealand, where Covid activity is gradually increasing.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>March 19, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ktF6C/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/907988d3-27b7-4d8e-9432-13619f8c29c1_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4f3740b3-b711-4a48-9045-2df8d2938008_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained very low across all European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Mar 19, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ktF6C/2/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained low across all European countries still reporting this data, with Germany, France, and Denmark all reporting record low activity levels.</p><blockquote><p><em>Data for the USA and Canada was updated on Friday, March 27 to reflect the latest information.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>March 21, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA fell and and is now very low, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BXNpQ/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6ea250f1-6bd5-4d2a-bc46-76ea94e580d4_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1bcca681-db89-4bce-95a6-ae814abc600b_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week in the USA, wastewater activity and all hospital indicators for Covid fell and are at very low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The activity levels in wastewater sampling, percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, test positivity rate, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 21, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BXNpQ/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows that Covid wastewater viral activity levels continued to fall slowly and is now within the very low activity level for the week ending <strong>March 21, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits, test positivity, and hospital admissions also fell and remained at low levels.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are also falling and low in most states as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uK9Xg/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/98ff9f43-cd85-4774-8ffa-586503086398_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/09673890-a061-4c85-b5f4-6909585922c8_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater continued to fall and are low or very low in almost all states.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Mar 21, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uK9Xg/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>March 21, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It shows that while Covid activity has now dropped to a low level, flu activity also fell but stayed at a moderate level nationwide.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SLd9i/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/98701b86-d47d-4fe0-bea9-21ea7076de97_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/249f87d0-a8aa-4c34-bb17-c9f446c4a316_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA again fell for  Covid&nbsp;and for&nbsp;Flu.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Mar 21, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SLd9i/2/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>However, flu activity based on wastewater measurements paints a different picture, with all states showing low or very low levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2ci1z/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1641bc65-349b-4c84-9110-6c6a2d62946b_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0398b952-5171-4a2f-8a5d-e1f4df595082_1220x1184.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:584,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater stayed low or very low in all states.&nbsp;&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Mar 21, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2ci1z/2/" width="730" height="584" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Turning to Canada, the latest data for week ending <strong>March 21, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels fell significantly and are now at very low levels. However, there are regional variations, with central provinces showing slightly lower activity.  Flu A activity has stayed very low, while Flu B activity remained at high levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/66Gpz/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/44abe673-c7ab-4f2f-9cb4-751e03746e7e_1220x960.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/82332f08-944c-41d6-83ee-0eabcb36651d_1220x1238.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:615,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid activity in Canada in wastewater fell to low levels, Flu A activity remained low, and&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;and&nbsp;Flu B&nbsp;levels stayed high.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, RSV, Flu A, and Flu B levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 21, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/66Gpz/2/" width="730" height="615" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The last countries in this section are Hong Kong and New Zealand, each displaying different trends.</p><p>This chart shows the key Covid activity indicators for Hong Kong up to week ending <strong>March 21, 2026</strong>, highlighting that activity has stayed low over the past six months.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ntP1c/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a2329fb4-a2cb-4884-a30e-810a7bb85215_1220x488.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d076c0b4-db9b-4176-9178-005183cdf8c5_1220x750.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:369,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The main indicators of Covid activity in Hong Kong have stayed very low for the past six months.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), test positivity rate (%),&nbsp;and average consultation rate (per 1,000 consultations) for Covid in Hong Kong by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 21, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ntP1c/1/" width="730" height="369" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>In contrast, New Zealand presents a mixed picture, with Covid levels in wastewater climbing since the start of the year, even as reported cases stay relatively low. However, the most recent data shows that Covid activity is now falling suggesting this recent small wave is over.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VT1jO/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ba3ba58e-615a-451c-ae5e-34e25511f223_1220x488.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1b1a7a0e-9c4f-45bb-82a5-e385d41412fc_1220x720.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:354,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;In New Zealand, Covid levels found in wastewater and reported cases are now falling after the recent increase.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Covid levels and Covid cases in New Zealand by week:  Jan 7, 2024 to Mar 22, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VT1jO/1/" width="730" height="354" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>You can find more information about local Covid activity levels in New Zealand<strong> <a href="https://esr-cri.shinyapps.io/wastewater/#region=Auckland&amp;site=Auckland%20Region&amp;log_or_linear=linear&amp;period=eighteenMonthsButton">here</a></strong>.</p><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is low. Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now at baseline levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are very low across European countries  In the USA, Covid activity fell slightly and is now at very low levels, but remains higher in a few states.  Flu A activity in both the USA and Canada has fallen to low levels, although Flu B activity has increased in Canada. </p><p>Covid activity in Hong Kong has remained very low for many months, whereas activity levels in New Zealand has increased slowly over the past month although the most recent data suggest this small wave is over.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: March 19, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-march-19-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-march-19-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2026 15:11:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f43e6ef1-7040-40d2-8b2c-c288d2ec1a39_773x435.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><blockquote><p><em>Charts for the USA were updated on Friday, March 20 to reflect the latest published data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the key Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland stayed low, suggesting a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity has dropped to baseline levels across all home nations, returning to typical out-of-season patterns and confirming that this year&#8217;s flu season is over.</strong></p><p>In England, all key hospital indicators of Covid activity have stayed well within baseline levels. Flu and RSV cases also fell and are circulating at baseline levels.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid fell slightly and hospital admissions are at record  low levels. The BA.3.2 Covid variant remains dominant in Scotland but has not led to any increase in activity. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu have fallen significantly from the recent peak and are at baseline levels.</p><p>Over the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed low, while Flu and RSV admissions remained very low.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity was stable across all surveillance indicators and stayed at low levels. Flu and RSV activity was also stable and low for all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater stayed low across all European countries still reporting this data, with Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark all reporting record low activity levels.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA for week ending <strong>March 14 </strong>fell again this week and stayed at a low level of activity nationwide. Flu activity also fell this week with wastewater activity now low in all states.</p><p>Covid activity in Hong Kong has remained very low for many months, whereas activity levels in New Zealand have risen over the past month.</p><p>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign is set to run from April 13 to June 30, 2026 and will use the same eligibility criteria as the Autumn 2025 campaign.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section starts with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It&#8217;s important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OTBme/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7cd1b99b-98e1-4612-b2d9-58f8f636a871_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9a393d8e-fc72-46ce-b6ff-45a908d81aaf_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate fell slightly and stayed well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Mar 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OTBme/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate fell slightly this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates stayed low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The following chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nq1vT/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8123f843-7da0-475f-b6c0-887b31f3de5e_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c6cb043d-e90a-46fc-b137-b5211401b824_1220x1182.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:585,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained very low.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Mar 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nq1vT/2/" width="730" height="585" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels indicating a low level of risk.</p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions remain at historic lows, while Flu and RSV cases have peaked and are at baseline activity levels. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KwOnH/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f0f7f5da-da58-4b2e-8bcf-c2fedd4f62f3_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4300dd7d-b35c-4f3d-9932-dbf988c5835d_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, hospital admissions for&nbsp;Covid, Flu&nbsp;and&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;in England stayed at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Mar 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KwOnH/2/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-19-march-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v4ZBd/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a983d5ab-9b9e-4795-be90-2b7bde55bd6f_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bc6629d3-f6f7-4827-a5a9-2df03ad3b8ac_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland have continued to fall and remain at very low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v4ZBd/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All Covid indicators in Scotland fell slightly this week and remained very low, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>This week, Covid test positivity decreased from 1.9% to 1.4% and overall activity remained at baseline level. Hospitalisations fell for the fifth week in a row to 24, the lowest level ever reported.</p><p>The BA.3.2 variant remained dominant accounting for the majority (65%) of detected Covid sequences, replacing the previously dominant XFG variant. It is notable that the newly dominant BA.3.2 variant has not led to any increase in Covid activity.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. All positivity rates stayed at baseline activity levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WYZUf/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/446e9061-441b-44c0-abe7-b34478c17490_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/252c8456-cc99-479e-b007-72c5f68541cb_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, both&nbsp;Covid and  Flu  test positivity in Scotland fell slightly and remain at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 15, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WYZUf/2/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p></p><p>All laboratory-confirmed Flu  indicators remained at baseline activity, with a slight decrease in overall test positivity. However, hospital admissions due to Flu increased from 26 to 31 this week, five of which were for influenza B.</p><p>Overall RSV activity decreased and stayed at baseline levels. Test positivity remained stable and hospital admissions decreased from 47 in the previous week to 32 this week.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending <strong>March 15, 2026</strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KmXHq/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d4c355e2-ce85-4c3c-9296-5b4d61753835_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ed9d1615-0268-4321-be5f-76beaed1bcf9_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid&nbsp;fell to low levels while Flu admissions stayed at very low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KmXHq/2/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have remained steady over the past few months and are low. Flu cases needing hospitalisation remained very low and are much lower than for Covid. RSV admissions also fell and are at low levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that while Flu is at baseline levels and is almost at out of season levels. Confirmed case numbers have stayed very low in the current week, as has test positivity. </p><p>Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable in recent weeks and are at low levels. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity fell overall and is now at baseline intensity levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IWh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IWh!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IWh!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IWh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IWh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IWh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:445945,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/191356555?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IWh!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IWh!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IWh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IWh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff91c5d7a-812d-4d3e-b8fd-0a18b2957b82_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, continued to fall this week and remained relatively low. </p><p>Covid activity has dropped across all surveillance indicators, with levels remaining low. Flu activity has also fallen across all indicators and is now at baseline. RSV activity is down as well and is circulating at low levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Activity in Other Countries.</h3><p>This section reviews the latest Covid trends in Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific. In most countries across these regions, cases have dropped and remain lower than during earlier waves. The exception is New Zealand, where Covid activity is gradually increasing.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>March 12, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xr94K/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8c9107fc-4852-4cf8-b509-b6edd3b2285a_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5b4a6c37-96df-4e4e-be37-cccaf96b48e9_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater fell to very low levels across all European countries.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Mar 12, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xr94K/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained low across all European countries still reporting this data, with Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark all reporting record low activity levels.</p><blockquote><p><em>Data for the USA was updated on Friday, March 20 to reflect the latest information.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>March 14, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA remained stable and relatively low, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Zvjmi/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1ee4d70a-90a9-4d9d-b95f-a27e435ee149_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/96e02763-2cda-4d3d-af3c-51c79cb0a969_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week in the USA, wastewater activity and all hospital indicators for Covid fell and&nbsp;remained at low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The activity levels in wastewater sampling, percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, test positivity rate, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 14, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Zvjmi/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows that Covid wastewater viral activity levels continued to fall slowly and remained within the low activity level for the week ending <strong>March 14, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits, test positivity, and hospital admissions also fell and remained at low levels.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are falling and low in most states as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/T54LU/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5c959a6a-fd74-4a11-9304-241f91db06ed_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3fc6511f-5f3a-4696-b2c4-318d1b4777e8_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater fell and are low or very low in almost all states.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Mar 14, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/T54LU/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>March 14, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It shows that while Covid activity has now dropped to a low level, flu activity also fell but stayed at a moderate level nationwide.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SlXqe/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9c16cf72-0101-4f74-b969-390052799b23_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/50b49bcc-e0f4-4ebf-aecb-38454c9bbedd_1220x1040.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:514,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA again fell for  Covid&nbsp;and for&nbsp;Flu.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Mar 14, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SlXqe/2/" width="730" height="514" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>However, flu activity based on wastewater measurements paints a different picture, with all states showing low or very low levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XyLPQ/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/46409d8e-eb3c-4b0f-93d2-aa3b4e1c9001_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5285380c-c794-4609-a16b-9bdad78e2f51_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater remained low or very low in all states.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Mar 7, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XyLPQ/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Turning to Canada, the latest data for week ending <strong>March 7, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels fell slightly but remain at a moderate level nationwide. However, there are regional variations, with western provinces showing higher activity.  Flu A activity has stayed very low, but Flu B and RSV activity again increased this week and are at high levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pTYGI/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e617d68c-ce04-42e4-9d1d-381dd5ef7b70_1220x960.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/131b8031-4355-42ef-89d5-478b45d837c8_1220x1238.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:615,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid activity in Canada measured in wastewater fell, Flu A activity remained at low levels, while Flu B and RSV levels increased.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, RSV, Flu A, and Flu B levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 7, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pTYGI/1/" width="730" height="615" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The last countries in this section are Hong Kong and New Zealand, each displaying different trends.</p><p>The following chart presents the key Covid activity indicators for Hong Kong, showing that activity has remained low for the last six months.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3MRRa/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/97574e46-cdd9-4522-a05e-765aab93a3a0_1220x488.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bf45858a-5358-4352-b70a-ee42418c136f_1220x750.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:369,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The main indicators of Covid activity in Hong Kong have remained very low for the past six months.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), test positivity rate (%),&nbsp;and average consultation rate (per 1,000 consultations) for Covid in Hong Kong by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 14, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3MRRa/1/" width="730" height="369" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>In contrast, New Zealand presents a mixed picture, with Covid levels in wastewater climbing since the start of the year, even as reported cases stay relatively low.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gbTct/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/966000b9-1aba-409f-a696-ec9c60e770eb_1220x488.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/328d96a8-dbf1-41a6-9e95-6dc2b293dde7_1220x720.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:354,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;In New Zealand, Covid levels found in wastewater are rising fast, while reported cases are rising more slowly.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Covid levels and Covid cases in New Zealand by week:  Jan 7, 2024 to Mar 8, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gbTct/2/" width="730" height="354" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>You can find more information about local Covid activity levels in New Zealand<strong> <a href="https://esr-cri.shinyapps.io/wastewater/#region=Auckland&amp;site=Auckland%20Region&amp;log_or_linear=linear&amp;period=eighteenMonthsButton">here</a></strong>.</p><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is low. Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now at baseline levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are very low across European countries  In the USA, Covid activity fell slightly and is at low levels, but remains higher in a few states.  Flu A activity in both the USA and Canada has fallen to low levels, although Flu B activity has increased in Canada. </p><p>Covid activity in Hong Kong has remained very low for many months, whereas activity levels in New Zealand have risen slowly over the past month.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: March 12, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-march-12-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-march-12-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2026 15:24:56 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5a5a28b8-7d78-499e-87d0-8254550d2c04_720x405.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><blockquote><p><em>Charts for the USA and New Zealand were updated on Friday, March 13 to reflect the latest published data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland stayed low, indicating a low level of risk. </strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity is now at baseline levels across all home nations, confirming that this year&#8217;s Flu season is over.</strong></p><p>In England, all key hospital indicators of Covid activity have stayed well within baseline levels. Flu and RSV cases have also dropped and are circulating at baseline levels as well.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid fell slightly and are at low levels. The BA.3.2 Covid variant remains dominant in Scotland but has not led to any increase in activity. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu have fallen significantly from the recent peak and are at baseline levels.</p><p>Over the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed low, while Flu and RSV admissions remained very low.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity fell across all surveillance indicators and stayed at low levels. Flu and RSV activity has also fallen across all indicators reaching low levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater fell in most European countries that share this data and remained low.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA for week ending <strong>March 7 </strong>fell slightly this week and stayed at a low level of activity nationwide, though there are some variations from state to state. Flu activity also fell this week with wastewater activity now low in all states..</p><p>Covid activity in Hong Kong has remained very low for many months, whereas activity levels in New Zealand have risen over the past month.</p><p>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign is set to run from April 13 to June 30, 2026 and will use the same eligibility criteria as the Autumn 2025 campaign.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section usually starts with the latest data on Covid test positivity rates in England, but this week UKHSA hasn&#8217;t released this data due to a technical issue in the Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS). Regular updates are expected to return next week.</p><p>The following chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8oJ6T/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/674853d4-3218-44ef-a6fe-e6c985f57f2a_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/adf43d43-c788-4b8a-b895-4e66821a80a3_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England stayed very low.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Mar 8, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8oJ6T/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels indicating a low level of risk.</p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions remain at historic lows, while Flu and RSV cases have peaked and are at baseline activity levels. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/P6pPc/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2e90718c-9e4d-42ed-b819-25f5c92e5f9e_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/239ea7f9-1323-4c7c-a972-9e9454597f94_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid, Flu and RSV  hospital admissions in England remained at low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Mar 8, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/P6pPc/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-12-march-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/50iKY/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/113060e9-e196-40b9-9089-f0a17b895cae_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7a4a39c7-af90-438c-adc5-6e45f63e1092_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland have continued to fall and remain at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 8, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/50iKY/2/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All Covid indicators in Scotland fell slightly this week and remained low, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. Flu positivity rates have continued to fall to baseline levels and are now lower than for Covid.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NcC80/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9cafb16a-fd34-4055-bf30-901038e854bb_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/928791a8-69c6-4388-850e-b843764bfeb0_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, both&nbsp;Covid and  Flu  test positivity in Scotland fell slightly and remain at low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 8, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NcC80/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid test positivity decreased from 2.7% to 1.9% and overall activity remained at baseline level. Hospitalisations fell for the fourth week in a row to 40.</p><p>The BA.3.2 variant remained dominant accounting for the majority (75.8%) of detected Covid sequences, replacing the previously dominant XFG variant. It is notable that the newly dominant BA.3.2 variant has not led to any increase in Covid activity.</p><p>All laboratory-confirmed Flu  indicators remained at baseline activity, with a slight decrease in overall test positivity. Overall RSV activity decreased and stayed at baseline levels. Test positivity continued to fall and hospital admissions decreased from 60 in the previous week to 41 this week.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending <strong>March 8, 2026</strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iFzNg/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/52e80ef7-de9e-4216-8c10-3e816a8c8b56_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cf140db9-534a-4c4b-b1a7-44ff2f3a2fd8_1220x1064.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid&nbsp;remained stable and low, while Flu admissions stayed at very low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 8, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iFzNg/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have remained steady over the past few months and are low. Flu cases needing hospitalisation remained very low and are much lower than for Covid. RSV admissions also fell and are at low levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that while Flu is still circulating in Wales, activity remained at baseline levels. Confirmed case numbers have stayed at low levels in the current week, as has test positivity. </p><p>Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable in recent weeks and are at low levels. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity fell overall and is at low intensity levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jaXi!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jaXi!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jaXi!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jaXi!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jaXi!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jaXi!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:434899,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/190702938?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jaXi!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jaXi!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jaXi!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jaXi!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54e5c8bf-25d5-4721-bcd6-e3c5639f5925_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, continued to fall this week and remained relatively low. </p><p>Covid activity has dropped across all surveillance indicators, with levels staying low. Flu activity has also fallen across all indicators and is now at baseline. RSV activity is down as well and is circulating at low levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Activity in Other Countries.</h3><p>This section reviews the latest Covid trends in Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific. In most countries across these regions, cases have dropped and remain lower than during earlier waves. The exception is New Zealand, where Covid activity is gradually increasing.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>March 5, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8ipDm/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e90d2245-f18c-4742-a442-820e1320deae_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e1091015-448f-4ef9-afbe-39e5490a2339_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater stayed at low levels across all European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Mar 5, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8ipDm/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater stayed low across all European countries still reporting this data, with Germany and the Netherlands reporting record low activity levels.</p><blockquote><p><em>Data for the USA was updated on Friday, March 13 to reflect the latest information.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>March 7, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA remained stable and relatively low, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uJXkX/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/78c63ea1-d813-415b-8b4e-195d74599c6c_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0fcb7f32-a0f6-41f3-9509-709cf3bf80a3_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, wastewater activity in the USA stayed at low levels, and all hospital indicators for Covid remained low.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The activity levels in wastewater sampling, percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, test positivity rate, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 7, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uJXkX/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows Covid wastewater viral activity levels continued to fall slowly and are now within the low activity level for the week ending <strong>March 7, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits, test positivity, and hospital admissions also fell slightly and remained at low levels.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest in Mid West and Northeast states, while staying relatively low in the West region as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n9VjQ/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8f4fd5d0-93a3-420a-a67f-d155d79f307f_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/de8afd1c-b164-40a3-be38-22a9c12ec498_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater fell in most states but remain higher in the the North East and Mid West.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Mar 7, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n9VjQ/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>March 7, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It shows that while Covid activity has now dropped to a low level, flu activity also fell but stayed at a moderate level nationwide.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PxWAF/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/872ac896-1bc6-4295-ad9e-32a34b5a7616_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/05ee86cc-811e-4d2b-824a-4bb35fa19d55_1220x1040.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:514,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA fell slightly for  Covid&nbsp;and for&nbsp;Flu.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Mar 7, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PxWAF/2/" width="730" height="514" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>However, flu activity based on wastewater measurements paints a different picture, with all states showing low or very low levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/U0VUe/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c1d5e0ae-13e6-42fd-b72c-34eff6c8ad7a_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/341abc56-5f2b-47bd-87b7-e998506545d0_1220x1184.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:584,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater are low or very low in all states.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Mar 7, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/U0VUe/2/" width="730" height="584" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Turning to Canada, the latest data for week ending <strong>March 7, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels continued to rise slowly but remain at a moderate level nationwide. However, there are regional variations, with western provinces showing higher activity.  Flu activity has stayed very low, but RSV activity again increased this week.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/q6Mrq/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e756a536-8749-46c2-b452-670cec1e9a08_1220x508.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/376a5423-1268-4a14-8a29-1a9294789ea2_1220x786.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:389,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid activity in Canada measured in wastewater increased slightly, Flu activity remained at low levels, and RSV levels increased.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, Flu A, and RSV levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Feb 28, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/q6Mrq/1/" width="730" height="389" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The last countries in this section are Hong Kong and New Zealand, each displaying different trends.</p><p>The following chart presents the key Covid activity indicators for Hong Kong, showing that activity has remained low for the last six months.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/bpvb8/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fd23faf4-bff5-4874-aff8-234e0ea0d50c_1220x488.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/372665b0-f3d7-409a-8e4f-f2ecb8331087_1220x750.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:369,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid activity in Hong Kong has remained low for the past six months, according to the main indicators.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), and average consultation rate (per 1,000 consultations) for Covid in Hong Kong by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Mar 7, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/bpvb8/1/" width="730" height="369" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>In contrast, New Zealand presents a mixed picture, with Covid levels in wastewater climbing since the start of the year, even as reported cases stay relatively low.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gbTct/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/966000b9-1aba-409f-a696-ec9c60e770eb_1220x488.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/328d96a8-dbf1-41a6-9e95-6dc2b293dde7_1220x720.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:354,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;In New Zealand, Covid levels found in wastewater are rising fast, while reported cases are rising more slowly.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Covid levels and Covid cases in New Zealand by week:  Jan 7, 2024 to Mar 8, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gbTct/2/" width="730" height="354" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>You can find more information about local Covid activity levels in New Zealand<strong> <a href="https://esr-cri.shinyapps.io/wastewater/#region=Auckland&amp;site=Auckland%20Region&amp;log_or_linear=linear&amp;period=eighteenMonthsButton">here</a></strong>.</p><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is low. Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now at baseline levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are low across European countries  In the USA, Covid activity also fell slightly and is at moderate levels, but remains at high levels in a some states.  Flu activity in both the USA and Canada is falling to low levels.</p><p>Covid activity in Hong Kong has remained very low for many months, whereas activity levels in New Zealand have risen slowly over the past month.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: March 5, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-march-5-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-march-5-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2026 14:50:33 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d46884c8-3286-4473-8fdf-b7dbf9d98b76_652x435.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><blockquote><p><em>USA charts were updated on Friday, March 6 to reflect the latest published data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland stayed low, indicating a low level of risk. </strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity is now at baseline levels across all home nations, confirming that this year&#8217;s Flu season is over.</strong></p><p>In England, all key indicators of Covid activity have stayed well within baseline levels. Flu and RSV cases have also dropped and are circulating at baseline levels as well.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid fell slightly and are at low levels. The BA.3.2 Covid variant remains dominant in Scotland but has not led to any increase in activity. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu have fallen significantly from the recent peak and are at baseline levels.</p><p>Over the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed low, while Flu admissions remained very low.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity decreased across all surveillance indicators and remained at low levels. Flu and RSV activity has fallen across all indicators reaching low levels.</p><p>Once again, Covid levels in wastewater remained low across all European countries that share this data.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA for week ending <strong>February 27 </strong>remained stable this week and at a low level of activity nationwide, though there are significant variations from state to state. Flu activity remained stable, but is still high in a few states.</p><p>Covid activity in Hong Kong has remained very low for many months, whereas activity levels in New Zealand have risen slowly over the past month.</p><p>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign is set to run from April 13 to June 30, 2026 and will use the same eligibility criteria as the Autumn 2025 campaign.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section starts with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gMxRd/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e254acbb-5502-4954-9890-13dbb369566a_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6bff0735-69d8-4960-b780-49f2a7426705_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate remained stable and well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Mar 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gMxRd/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate remained stable this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates stayed low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wNPBQ/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/519b256c-8123-4e59-8d1c-a8d4166db9a6_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dfd3662d-0968-4999-854a-835908380ff4_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Mar 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wNPBQ/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels indicating a low level of risk.</p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are at historic lows, while Flu and RSV cases have peaked and are at baseline activity levels. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lvJoi/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8187c5a5-0784-42f6-a8f5-cf8338fbd535_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5bac521f-6694-4770-b09b-7d99698403ea_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid, Flu and RSV  hospital admissions in England remained at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Mar 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lvJoi/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-5-march-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/myLrb/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6a423d8a-db98-4746-af8b-f513bc9263c7_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9a96c1a4-416c-414c-97b9-c530004059c8_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland have continued to fall gradually and remain at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/myLrb/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All Covid indicators in Scotland fell this week and remained low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. Flu positivity rates have continued to fall to baseline levels and are now lower than for Covid.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wJxT7/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9d5d152b-69da-445a-b43e-631cb7fc8d6c_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/591ee469-4af9-4fdd-8adc-a5b62af60b4d_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid and  Flu  test positivity in Scotland fell slightly and stayed at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 1, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wJxT7/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid test positivity decreased from 3.6% to 2.9% and overall activity remained at baseline level. Hospitalisations fell for the third week in a row to 50, with children under 5 making up about a third of the cases. </p><p>The BA.3.2 variant remained dominant accounting for the majority (73.5%) of detected Covid sequences, replacing the previously dominant XFG variant. It is notable that the newly dominant BA.3.2 variant has not led to any increase in Covid activity.</p><p>Laboratory-confirmed flu cases remained at baseline activity overall this week, with a slight decrease in overall test positivity. Hospital admissions continued to fall from 56 to 37, with individuals aged 65-74 accounting for the highest proportion of cases, at 43%.</p><p>Overall RSV activity decreased, returning to baseline levels. Test positivity continued to fall and hospital admissions decreased from 79 to 56.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending <strong>March 1, 2026</strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/D2rPG/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2b1ecbe3-ff45-4d83-8301-2c215aef658d_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/31857ea9-8ca6-41f6-bc1d-3b63e5584138_1220x1064.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid&nbsp;remained stable and low, while Flu admissions stayed at very low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Mar 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/D2rPG/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have remained steady over the past few months and are low. Flu cases needing hospitalisation remained very low and are much lower than for Covid. RSV admissions also fell and are at low levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that Flu activity remained at baseline levels. Confirmed case numbers have stayed at low levels in the current week, as has test positivity. </p><p>In addition, GP consultations for influenza-like illness remained stable and are well below the &#8216;low intensity&#8217; threshold. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity is decreasing overall and is now at low intensity levels. Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable in recent weeks and at low levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VJU!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VJU!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VJU!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VJU!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VJU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VJU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:440787,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/189971583?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VJU!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VJU!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VJU!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VJU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dd1cd5f-ca3c-4e7e-8d80-d8d7da0fcbc6_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, continued to fall this week and remained relatively low. </p><p>Covid activity has dropped across all surveillance indicators, with levels staying low. Flu activity has also declined across all indicators and is now at baseline. RSV activity is down as well and is circulating at low levels.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Activity in Other Countries.</h3><p>This section reviews the latest Covid trends in Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific. In most countries across these regions, cases have dropped and remain lower than during earlier waves. The exception is New Zealand, where Covid activity is gradually increasing.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>February 26, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9wBNG/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/84dacf54-5bca-4960-ac31-eee5b6662cd7_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3e457849-26f6-44fa-8ae8-4732ea4ad4f8_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained at low levels across all European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Feb 26, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9wBNG/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained low in all European countries that still share this data.</p><blockquote><p><em>The data for the USA was updated on Friday, March 6 to reflect the latest information.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>February 28, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA remained stable and relatively low, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GGEjS/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0f3db7c1-d1ec-48fa-9886-85718314dace_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3632478a-ccab-4ab7-8947-4aa0fc12b480_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, wastewater activity in the USA fell to low levels, and all hospital indicators for Covid remained low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The activity levels in wastewater sampling, percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, test positivity rate, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Feb 28, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GGEjS/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows Covid wastewater viral activity levels continued to fall slowly and are now just within the low activity level for the week ending <strong>February 28, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits, test positivity, and hospital admissions also fell slightly and remained at relatively low levels.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest in Mid West and Northeast states, while staying relatively low in the West region as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tU0NS/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/22e55809-4c51-47e9-986b-c990f882ae1d_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a2f71ba7-d6c7-4813-9df8-05e5feefd5f0_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater are falling in most states but remain higher in the the North East and Mid West&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Feb 28, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tU0NS/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>February 28, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It shows that while Covid activity has now dropped to a low level, flu activity has stayed steady at a moderate level nationwide.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/T6jLD/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c0dd082c-51ad-4d9a-87c0-b69b46d30884_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9199ba82-86de-4c86-9890-268b2c7c36f1_1220x1090.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:506,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA fell slightly for  Covid, but stay moderately high for&nbsp;Flu.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Feb 28, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/T6jLD/2/" width="730" height="506" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>However, Flu activity varies across states, with cases increasing in just 9 and decreasing in 35. While most states are experiencing moderate or low activity levels, Louisiana is  still facing high activity, as shown on the interactive map.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/puUtJ/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4ae17a80-cade-4817-9131-18eb7b68769d_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a0242e1a-c22a-45c6-94ff-2c9427aae50c_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater is low in many states, with just one experiencing high activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Feb 28, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/puUtJ/1/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Turning to Canada, the latest data as of <strong>February 21, 2026</strong>, shows that COVID wastewater levels are rising very slowly but remain moderate, flu activity has dropped to very low, and RSV activity has increased this week.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SPvW5/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c40c053a-ffb0-4f99-96d7-a9111feaced3_1220x508.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/736aeb87-1b80-4e05-ad9e-e24f91e51ce2_1220x786.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:389,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid activity in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, Flu activity fell to low levels, and RSV levels increased.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, Flu A, and RSV levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Feb 21, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SPvW5/1/" width="730" height="389" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The last countries in this section are Hong Kong and New Zealand, each displaying different trends.</p><p>The following chart presents the key Covid activity indicators for Hong Kong, showing that activity has remained low for the last six months.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/faXP8/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9f911bac-8b0b-4b65-bbcb-2d7997074b7d_1220x488.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e9c3f054-e0ae-4f72-996b-18f7d452ec51_1220x750.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:369,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid activity in Hong Kong has stayed low for the past six months, according to the main indicators.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), and average consultation rate (per 1,000 consultations) for Covid in Hong Kong by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Feb 28, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/faXP8/1/" width="730" height="369" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>In contrast, New Zealand presents a mixed picture, with Covid levels in wastewater climbing since the start of the year, even as reported cases stay relatively low.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aT5R1/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0f154e28-6b3f-42bf-990a-d87c38fe9ebd_1220x488.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8c606ce0-5e7c-4aad-b2ae-db93fe04f4cf_1220x754.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:371,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;In New Zealand, Covid levels found in wastewater are rising, even though reported cases stay relatively low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Covid levels and Weekly Covid cases in New Zealand by week:  Jan 7, 2024 to Feb 22, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aT5R1/1/" width="730" height="371" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is low. Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now at baseline levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are low across European countries  In the USA, Covid activity also fell slightly and is at moderate levels, but remains at high levels in a some states.  Flu activity in both the USA and Canada is falling to low levels.</p><p>Covid activity in Hong Kong has remained very low for many months, whereas activity levels in New Zealand have risen slowly over the past month.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: February 26, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-february-26</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-february-26</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:11:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bd1465a8-bb50-46a6-97e8-012824f80fb1_759x622.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><blockquote><p><em>USA charts updated on Friday, February 27 to reflect the latest published data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland stayed low, indicating a low level of risk. </strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity is now at baseline levels across all home nations, indicating that this year&#8217;s Flu season is over.</strong></p><p>In England, all main indicators of Covid activity remained well within the baseline activity level. Flu and RSV activity has also fallen and is circulating at low activity levels.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid fell slightly and are at low levels. The BA.3.2 Covid variant is now dominant in Scotland but has not led to any increase in activity. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu have fallen significantly from the recent peak and are also at baseline levels.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed at low levels.  Flu admissions continued to fall this week and are at very low activity levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity decreased slightly across most surveillance indicators and remained at low levels. Flu and RSV activity has fallen across all indicators to low levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater stayed low in all European countries that report this data.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA for week ending <strong>February 27 </strong>remained stable this week and at a low level of activity nationwide, though there are significant variations from state to state. Flu activity remained stable, but is still high in a few states.</p><p>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign is set to run from April 13 to June 30, 2026 and will use the same eligibility criteria as the Autumn 2025 campaign.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section starts with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/G3Sgd/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/044e179f-a97d-4c10-9c90-bcc3f1badbbd_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2b9f6e6d-c548-439f-aa5d-5ec384dbbed0_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate stayed stable and well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/G3Sgd/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate remained stable this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates remained low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ouv6e/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/42e5d853-6479-473c-b05f-4f20de485064_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dbf2601d-71fd-44a7-a4d2-58e7476b193f_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England stayed low.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Feb 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ouv6e/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remain at historically low levels indicating a low level of risk.</p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are at historic lows, while Flu and RSV cases have peaked and are at low activity levels. Both remain slightly higher than Covid, suggesting they currently pose a bit more of a risk.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QBezT/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dae1ee91-3d0b-4ce7-9cb6-c17f8bdc3e12_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/875d3589-0403-4192-97e4-fe00ae2d3c93_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid, Flu and RSV  hospital admissions in England remained at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QBezT/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) positivity rates remained stable and are stayed at the low level of activity.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jB3Te/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/95a300ec-aa12-4e6b-916d-0874c33d3cdc_1220x770.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9ba7886d-ed5a-49e0-90ed-394721fa3e3c_1220x1028.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:510,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the test positivity rate for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) remained stable and remained at a low activity level.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percent testing positive for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) in hospital patients with respiratory illness symptoms by week in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 22, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jB3Te/1/" width="730" height="510" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-26-february-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZoOTh/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4a720aab-cdf4-44bc-b546-c3cf531a6a24_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8d97de51-3588-4cd1-ba88-41c148afebce_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland fell slightly and stayed at low levels of activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZoOTh/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All Covid indicators in Scotland continued to stay low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. Flu positivity rates have continued to fall to baseline levels and are now lower than for Covid.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8Xqsw/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a13f837c-05e4-479d-a56e-c4962d97ff86_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a6ddfea6-aa1e-486f-bf7f-5f8a5119ec38_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid and  Flu  test positivity in Scotland remained stable and at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 22, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8Xqsw/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid test positivity decreased from 3.7 to 3.5% and activity remained baseline overall. Hospitalisations declined for the second consecutive week, with children aged 0&#8211;14 years accounting for 40% of COVID-19 admissions. </p><p>In week ending February 5 (the week with the latest data), the BA.3.2 variant accounted for the majority (66.7%) of detected Covid sequences, replacing the previously dominant XFG variant. It is notable that the newly dominant BA.3.2 variant has not led to a significant increase in Covid activity.</p><p>Laboratory-confirmed flu cases remained at baseline activity overall this week, with a slight increase in overall test positivity. Hospital admissions fell, with individuals aged 75 years continuing to account for the highest proportion of cases, at 39.6%.</p><p>RSV cases and test positivity continued to fall, remaining at a low activity level overall. Hospital admissions also decreased from 91 to 68, with the highest proportion reported in the 1-4 age group (33.8%).</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending <strong>February 22, 2026</strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cXTf2/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2d8ec82c-8f58-48ce-a8e1-f7e41d9b295e_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/db28a3ae-341d-4ab2-8e7a-a4a5faf64c70_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid&nbsp;stayed stable and low, while Flu admissions are at very low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cXTf2/2/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have remained steady over the past few months and are low. Flu cases needing hospitalisation continue to fall and are now much lower than for Covid. RSV admissions also fell and are approaching low levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that Flu activity has returned to baseline levels. Confirmed case numbers have continued to fall in the current week, as has test positivity. </p><p>In addition, GP consultations for influenza-like illness remained stable and are well below the &#8216;low intensity&#8217; threshold. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity is decreasing overall and is now at low intensity levels. Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable in recent weeks.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity fell across the majority of surveillance indicators and activity levels remain at low levels. Flu activity also has fallen across all surveillance indicators and is now at baseline levels. RSV activity fell across the majority of indicators and is circulating at low levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yR7i!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yR7i!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yR7i!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yR7i!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yR7i!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yR7i!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/df692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:440935,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/189124552?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yR7i!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yR7i!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yR7i!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yR7i!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf692488-093b-4271-9a92-130b29f5a264_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, fell slightly this week and stayed relatively low. Covid activity also fell across the majority of all other surveillance indicators and remains low.</p><p>Flu test positivity, shown in green, has continued to fall along with all other surveillance indicators indicating that the winter Flu wave is over.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. Covid levels have fallen in most countries across these regions and remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>February 19, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CyFwY/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/488be527-dd73-403d-9cca-a044433535a3_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3b04286c-6374-487e-a24d-fec54d47e573_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained at low levels across all European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Feb 19, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CyFwY/2/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained low in all European countries that still share this data, with only France showing a slight increase.</p><blockquote><p><em>The data for the USA was updated on Friday, February 27 to reflect the latest information.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>February 21, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA remained stable, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2pza9/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ccc32010-3d78-4f65-92cf-a1db25357d47_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/648eb0a0-b5b6-4d9f-ad3a-82d36b11747f_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, while wastewater activity in the USA remained moderate, all hospital indicators for Covid stayed low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The activity levels in wastewater sampling, percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, test positivity rate, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Feb 21, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2pza9/2/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows Covid wastewater viral activity levels were stable and remained at moderate activity for the week ending <strong>February 21, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits, test positivity, and hospital admissions fall remained broadly stable at relatively low levels.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest in Mid West and Northeast states, while staying relatively low in the West region as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/d9yGx/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/85d84eae-1b7d-4749-a168-10a5f201691d_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/61425374-ca63-41d0-abbb-5962d0afbbe8_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater are falling in most states but remain highest in the the North East and Mid West&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Feb 21, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/d9yGx/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>February 21, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It indicates that while activity for Covid is moderate, Flu activity data has also remained stable at a moderate level nationally.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/H51lr/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/646f6702-1885-4839-ba62-cce7a84df620_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e26aad1a-a4cc-4212-8394-f42d562904a7_1220x1090.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:541,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA stayed stable for  Covid, but have stayed stable for&nbsp;Flu.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Feb 21, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/H51lr/1/" width="730" height="541" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>However, Flu activity varies across states, with cases increasing in 17 and decreasing in 27. While most states are experiencing moderate or low activity levels, four are still facing high or very high activity, as shown on the interactive map.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/49u9t/3/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/77d5402c-4c42-439b-be42-38042aa431c6_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/38df0701-c4d1-46c2-a1f4-1cc53c6c0090_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater is low in many states, with just four experiencing high or very high activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Feb 21, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/49u9t/3/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada, up to <strong>February 14, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels are rising very slowly but remain at moderate levels, flu activity has dropped to low, while RSV activity remained broadly stable.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8IqEP/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ffa1b064-2f92-4388-90cc-6646585bd7de_1220x508.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e2e03236-83c4-4aed-9ace-f6cfa6305cb7_1220x786.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:389,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid activity in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, Flu activity fell, and RSV levels remained stable.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, Flu A, and RSV levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Feb 14, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8IqEP/1/" width="730" height="389" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. Flu activity had fallen from its recent peak and is now at very low levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are low across European countries  In the USA, Covid activity also fell slightly and is at moderate levels, but remains at high levels in a some states.  Flu activity in both the USA and Canada is falling to low levels</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: February 19, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-february-19</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-february-19</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2026 15:12:54 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/eddc09b3-d1c4-4eac-b025-0f50d95a56bb_768x469.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><blockquote><p><em>USA charts were updated on Friday, February 20 to reflect the latest available data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland stayed low, indicating a low level of risk. </strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity levels continued to fall across all home nations, indicating that this year&#8217;s Flu season is over.</strong></p><p>In England, all main indicators of Covid activity remained well within the baseline activity level. Flu and RSV activity has also fallen and is circulating at low activity levels.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid remained stable and at low levels. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu and RSV have fallen significantly from the recent peak and are also at low levels.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed at low levels.  Flu admissions continued to fall this week and are now at low activity levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity increased slightly across most surveillance indicators but remained at low levels. Flu and RSV activity has fallen across all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater remained low in most European countries that still report this data.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA for week ending <strong>February 7</strong> remained stable this week and at a moderate level of activity nationwide, though there are significant variations from state to state. Flu activity continued to fall, but is still high in a few states.</p><p>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign is set to run from April 13 to June 30, 2026 and will use the same eligibility criteria as the Autumn 2025 campaign.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section starts with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tsVwp/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e7e67244-11d6-4954-993b-77b8870aba43_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1a50f2c1-a0b6-48ff-a5b3-55c3c278360e_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate remained stable and well below the baseline threshold for activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tsVwp/2/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate remained stable this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates remained low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Jcl6B/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/eee20b39-09e2-4825-8226-143b4ebe97ae_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af952966-8501-4599-a081-bfd3660add51_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained low.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Feb 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Jcl6B/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remain at historically low levels indicating a low level of risk.</p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are at historic lows, while Flu and RSV cases have peaked and are at low activity levels. Both remain slightly higher than Covid, suggesting they currently pose a bit more of a risk.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4ZvaG/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/abdf1ac4-be5d-4f6f-b000-ca986e40a027_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c7a3d8eb-855e-4dbb-9b7a-332da63674cd_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid hospital admissions in England stayed low, while Flu and RSV admissions continued to fall to low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4ZvaG/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>While hospital admissions have fallen significantly, they still differ by age. Below are the hospital admission rates per 100,000 people by age group for Covid, Flu, and RSV for the week ending February 15, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Fa1KW/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/99e23efa-5b14-4566-bff7-ece9734278ff_1220x676.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0a95acaa-705c-4f7e-a5e9-fb917528679b_1220x934.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:473,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Although hospital admissions have fallen significantly , they remain highest for over 85 year olds with Flu  and&nbsp;RSV, and children under 5 years with RSV.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory illnesses by age for England: Week ending Feb 15, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Fa1KW/1/" width="730" height="473" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the risk of hospitalisation remains highest among the very youngest age group and the elderly for both Flu and RSV. While current hospital admissions for Covid are slightly lower, the elderly remain more likely to be hospitalised.</p><p>Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) positivity rates also fell and are now just within the low level of activity.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Bgx1I/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a969a99b-79d6-45bc-9e00-d0fd0d656ed3_1220x770.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7482f980-675f-4941-9119-37a7b0270254_1220x1028.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:510,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the test positivity rate for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) fell slightly and is now at a low activity level.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percent testing positive for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) in hospital patients with respiratory illness symptoms by week in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 15, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Bgx1I/2/" width="730" height="510" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-19-february-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QYU2L/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/21c7d29f-311e-407b-a864-59e50feaae0f_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ebfc88fd-b3d0-473c-863c-7f33ae79265e_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland remained stable at low levels of activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QYU2L/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Once again, all Covid indicators in Scotland stayed low this week, suggesting the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. Flu positivity rates have continued to fall to baseline levels and are now lower than for Covid.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pB6p1/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8218a1b5-877b-4a1a-bdb2-006cb398d669_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/489de0c6-5162-4d9f-b694-c426b9880dcf_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid test positivity in Scotland remained stable, while Flu positivity continued to fall to low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 15, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pB6p1/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid test positivity fell from 4.2 to 3.7%  and activity remained at baseline levels overall. Activity is higher in those aged 1-14 compared to other age groups, although there are indications that these are decreasing. Hospitalisations have increased slightly in recent weeks with just over a half of Covid admissions being in children aged 0-14 yrs.</p><p>Laboratory-confirmed Flu cases remained at baseline activity , with test positivity remaining stable or decreasing in all age groups. Hospital admissions decreased, with individuals aged 75 years continuing to account for the highest proportion at 36.2%.</p><p>RSV cases and test positivity continued to fall and remained at a low activity level overall. Hospital admissions also decreased from 118 to 79, with the highest proportion reported in the over 75 age group (25.3%).</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending February 15, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Vd0bS/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2f4afc59-8b0c-460e-a8bd-a9fc68c9aa6b_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7245178a-3b6a-4aeb-9471-57e2ae723261_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid remained low, while Flu admissions have now fallen to very low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Vd0bS/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have stayed fairly steady over the past few months and remain low. Flu cases needing hospitalisation continue to fall and are now lower than for Covid. RSV admissions also fell and are approaching low levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that Flu activity has returned to low levels. Confirmed case numbers have decreased in the current week, as has test positivity. </p><p>In addition, GP consultations for influenza-like illness remained stable and are well below the &#8216;low intensity&#8217; threshold. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity is decreasing overall and is now at low intensity levels. Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable in recent weeks.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity increased across the majority of surveillance indicators but activity levels remain at low levels. Flu activity also has fallen across all surveillance indicators and is now at baseline levels. RSV activity fell across the majority of indicators and is now circulating at low levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y4NG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y4NG!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y4NG!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y4NG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y4NG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y4NG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:425263,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/188431330?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y4NG!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y4NG!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y4NG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y4NG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3a89828-9c02-4ef8-b521-9b68bc1fdeb9_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, again increased slightly this week but stayed relatively low. Covid activity also increased across the majority of all other surveillance indicators but remains low.</p><p>Flu test positivity, shown in green, has continued to fall along with all other surveillance indicators indicating that the winter Flu wave is over.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. Covid levels have fallen in most countries across these regions and remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>February 12, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Rglxj/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cdacd1ec-2e2b-478c-8f71-ec47e8191c73_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/500846c0-5588-4e8f-8336-19e8e6b30e82_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater stayed at low levels across most European countries.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Feb 12, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Rglxj/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained low in most European countries that still share this data, with only France showing a slight increase. Note that no update was provided for Sweden this week.</p><blockquote><p><em>The data for the USA was updated on Friday, February 20 to reflect the latest information.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>February 14, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA remained stable, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nEC1O/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ec1b3640-8437-4fef-abaf-6647e7fd0d7b_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dd68b148-1369-438b-91fd-d2da67c4fd82_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in the USA fell, with only wastewater activity levels rising slightly.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The activity levels in wastewater sampling, percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, test positivity rate, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Feb 14, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nEC1O/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows Covid wastewater viral activity levels increased slightly this week but remains at moderate activity for the week ending <strong>February 14, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits, test positivity, and hospital admissions fall ell slightly.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest Mid West and Northeast states, starting to rise in the South, while staying relatively low in the West region as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/YxXzB/3/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4c7af8d0-2f2e-4417-819e-35313aabdce3_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5872d93-a16a-4c34-bc98-25b71f96aa76_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater are highest in the the North East and Mid West, but are starting to rise in the South.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Feb 14, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/YxXzB/3/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>February 14, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It indicates that while activity for Covid is moderate, Flu activity data has been revised upwards this week and has remained stable at a moderate level nationally.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QlVUQ/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1682ca91-ae7c-48d9-935b-aaf9fc300e10_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b1dbabbc-90f0-42e3-9f67-062cade797e4_1220x1090.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:541,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA stayed stable for  Covid, but have stayed stable for&nbsp;Flu.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Feb 14, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QlVUQ/2/" width="730" height="541" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>However, Flu activity varies across states, with cases increasing in 13 and decreasing in 33. While most states are experiencing moderate or low activity levels, seven are still facing high or very high activity, as shown on the interactive map.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XTovk/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/414eeba9-fcb8-49d1-a484-2597dc028dd7_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1a7daf6e-e612-44d9-a1d0-12793ee98aeb_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater is low in most states, with just seven experiencing high or very high activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Feb 14, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XTovk/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada, up to <strong>February 7, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels are holding steady at moderate levels, flu activity has dropped to low, while RSV activity remained broadly stable.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/H6YCR/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/936d4669-c177-419d-97a1-0947c73757c6_1220x508.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/231c9378-8d10-480f-8088-832a62c3c15c_1220x786.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:389,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid activity in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, Flu activity fell to low levels, and&nbsp;RSV levels remained stable.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, Flu A, and RSV levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Feb 7, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/H6YCR/1/" width="730" height="389" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. Flu activity had fallen from its recent peak and is now at very low levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are low across European countries  In the USA, Covid activity also fell slightly but remains at high levels in a some states.  Flu activity in both the USA and Canada is falling to low levels</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: February 12, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-february-12</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-february-12</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2026 15:38:23 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/adbaa4d6-8698-46f4-8fda-f57737902b78_1024x655.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><blockquote><p><em>Charts for the USA were updated on Friday, Feb 13 to reflect the latest available data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>This week the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland stayed low, indicating a low level of risk. </strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity has continued to fall across all home nations, indicating that this year&#8217;s Flu season is over. However, there&#8217;s still a chance of some late seasonal activity.</strong></p><p>In England, all main indicators of Covid activity remained well within the baseline activity level. Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now circulating at low activity levels.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators for Covid remained stable and within baseline levels though the slight rise in test positivity continued. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu and RSV have fallen significantly from the recent peak and are at low levels.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed at low levels.  Flu admissions continued to fall this week and are now at low activity levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity increased slightly across some surveillance indicators but remained at low levels. Flu and RSV activity has fallen across all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater remained low in most European countries that still report this data.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA remained broadly stable this week and is at a moderate level of activity nationwide, though there are significant variations from state to state. Flu activity continued to fall, but is still high in some states.</p><p>At the close of the Autumn 2025 booster campaign, coverage is highest among residents in care homes, but much lower for immunosuppressed individuals at risk. Scotland recorded the highest coverage, while Northern Ireland had the lowest.</p><p>The NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign will use the same eligibility criteria as the Autumn 2025 campaign and is set to run from April 13 to June 30, 2026.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section starts with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NQ6ih/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ef875340-9260-4aa6-9845-d7035b0c6f0a_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c680d509-3455-4159-8639-62c70c878107_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate increased slightly but stayed well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 8, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NQ6ih/2/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate increased slightly this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates remained low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xsrPR/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/130e89ec-01ad-4a18-b64c-d87e6e9b2385_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a8e21c41-d860-46a0-8085-4e9b97742ed1_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England stayed low.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Feb 8, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xsrPR/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>While all key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels there were slight increase in the positivity rate. </p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are at historic lows, while Flu and RSV cases have peaked and are now dropping to low activity levels. Both remain slightly higher than Covid, suggesting they currently pose a bit more of a risk.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LfciG/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dd8029ec-054a-4990-8e30-b0d433dc3897_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a8c7691d-a035-48b5-ba08-31d3d95cc107_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:527,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid hospital admissions in England stayed low, while Flu and RSV admissions continued to fall from their recent peaks.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 8, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LfciG/1/" width="730" height="527" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>While the activity levels for most respiratory viruses are falling, Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) levels increased but remained at a moderate level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ogpm8/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/232a966c-6c1a-4b94-9a18-b728a06e321b_1220x770.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/98d6b610-2142-4873-bc66-5775e1f8a13e_1220x1028.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:510,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the test positivity rate for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) increased but stayed at a moderate activity level.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percent testing positive for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) in hospital patients with respiratory illness symptoms by week in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 8, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ogpm8/1/" width="730" height="510" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-12-february-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/S3G4W/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/854957dc-2b4d-494c-b8ab-13edda43f021_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6aa66a05-ad5d-4e4c-88c7-cae17ccff818_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland stayed low, though the slight rise in test positivity continued.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 8, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/S3G4W/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Once again, all Covid indicators in Scotland stayed low this week, suggesting the risk from the virus remains low, though there was a slight rise in test positivity for the second week in a row.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. While Flu positivity rates have continued to fall to low levels they remain higher than for Covid. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DsN9j/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7ce1841a-37b1-4c11-93e8-2d8d2cada198_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fcbb3927-7162-491f-bd32-5316f4d3aafe_1220x1024.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:508,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid test positivity in Scotland again increased slightly but remained low, while Flu positivity remained at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 8, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DsN9j/2/" width="730" height="508" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Despite influenza levels peaking earlier than expected this season, high activity has not been sustained, with continued decreases seen across all measures. </p><p>This week, Covid laboratory test positivity increased from 3.5 to 4% in week 6, though activity remained at baseline levels. Activity remains higher in those aged 1-14 compared to other age groups. Hospitalisations remained stable.</p><p>Flu cases remained at baseline activity overall, though with an increase in test positivity in those aged 5-14. Hospital admissions remained stable, with individuals aged 75 years and older accounting for 29.4% of admissions.</p><p>RSV cases continued to fall, remaining at a low activity level overall. Hospital admissions due to RSV also fell from 142 to 109, with the highest proportion reported in the 1&#8211;4 age group (33%).</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Feb 8, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DpMLP/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9b70f186-11ac-49ef-9a7b-7d6aefd53ad9_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4de4571c-065c-41db-a788-7df9dcb0ca60_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid remained low, while Flu admissions have now fallen to baseline levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 8, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DpMLP/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have stayed fairly steady over the past few months and remain very low. Flu cases needing hospitalisation continue to fall and are now lower than for Covid. RSV admissions also fell and are approaching low levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that Flu activity has returned to low levels. Confirmed case numbers have decreased in the current week, as has test positivity. </p><p>In addition, GP consultations for influenza-like illness remained stable and are well below the &#8216;low intensity&#8217; threshold. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity is decreasing overall but remains at medium intensity levels. Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable in recent weeks.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity fell across all surveillance indicators and remains at low levels. Flu activity also has fallen across all surveillance indicators and is now at low levels, while RSV activity remained stable across the majority of surveillance indicators and is circulating at moderate levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lMuV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lMuV!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lMuV!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lMuV!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lMuV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lMuV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:427727,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/187623410?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lMuV!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lMuV!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lMuV!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lMuV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bf4746c-8a33-44e1-9c2b-28f6349aaa6b_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, increased slightly this week and stayed relatively low. Covid activity increased across the majority of surveillance indicators but remains low.</p><p>Flu test positivity, shown in green, has continued to fall along with all other surveillance indicators indicating that the winter Flu wave is over.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. Covid levels have fallen in most countries across these regions and remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>February 5, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RTEBU/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/12a0954a-e99d-42d7-bb34-ad3bccf8d271_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1d62b36e-fd8b-4caa-8db7-979139d88c2d_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained low levels across most European countries.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Feb 5, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RTEBU/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater remained low in most European countries that still share this data, with only Denmark staying at moderate levels.</p><blockquote><p><em>Updated on Friday, February 13 to reflect the latest published data.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>February 7, 2026</strong> Covid activity in the USA remained stable, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/16U4e/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/48179dc2-7c45-42c7-aefa-dea1f24c85f4_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/06909ac3-2013-4000-8db8-1ba6985e9772_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, COVID indicators in the USA remained broadly stable, with wastewater activity at moderate levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Feb 7, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/16U4e/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows Covid levels in wastewater remained stable and are at moderate activity for the week ending <strong>February 7, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits and hospital admissions fell slightly, while Covid test positivity remained broadly unchanged.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest Mid West and Northeast states, while staying relatively low in the South and West regions, as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/udYYU/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d1d67c02-86b3-432c-b78f-c426eeaf432c_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1567f989-af6c-40e8-a4d1-52963848ae3e_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater are highest in the the North East and Mid West.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Feb 7, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/udYYU/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>February 7, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It indicates that while activity for Covid is moderate, Flu activity has has continued to fall and is now at a low level nationally.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JVNRI/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/095e43d8-5469-4660-8ca6-8904c3d83c4a_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2fd6c938-7bbf-4ed7-961d-d03d2f717a91_1220x1024.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:508,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA stayed stable for  Covid, but continued to fall for&nbsp;Flu.&nbsp;&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Feb 7, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JVNRI/1/" width="730" height="508" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>However, Flu activity varies across states, with cases increasing in 21 and decreasing in 27. While most states are experiencing moderate or low activity levels, six are still facing high or very high activity, as shown on the interactive map.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DFNg8/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c8b65a50-3fe7-4d5c-8037-f9a8a3f53693_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3ac1556d-333f-4b14-841a-c1388c146fa8_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater is low in most states, with just six experiencing high or very high activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Feb 7, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DFNg8/1/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada, up to <strong>January 31, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels are holding steady at moderate levels, flu activity has dropped to low, while RSV activity fell this week after last weeks rise.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tHYp4/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bcf511b0-2735-4927-9b1c-303163483842_1220x508.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f6223f8a-9f5a-4f7d-b1c0-0862eef246c0_1220x786.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:389,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid activity in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, Flu activity fell to low levels, and&nbsp;RSV levels have started to fall.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, Flu A, and RSV levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Jan 31, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tHYp4/1/" width="730" height="389" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>UK Autumn 2025 Covid Booster Campaign Update</h3><p>The NHS Autumn 2025 Covid booster campaign closed on January 31, 2026 across all Home Nations.  The campaign provided free vaccinations for all individuals aged 75 years and older; residents in care homes for older adults; and immunosuppressed individuals aged 6 months and above.</p><p>The following chart shows the coverage for these three eligible groups at the end of the campaign.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zSi8I/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c0401992-ce67-4ef8-b8ac-dbe9dc2c02fa_1220x608.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ca18f6e7-cdf8-432f-b8f6-48f41b19a546_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:470,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;As the Autumn 2025 Covid booster campaign ends, coverage is noticeably lower among people with weakened immune systems.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage for each eligible cohort by Home Nation: Up to Jan 31, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zSi8I/2/" width="730" height="470" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Overall, coverage is the highest among residents in care homes, but much lower for immunosuppressed individuals at risk. Scotland recorded the highest coverage, while Northern Ireland had the lowest.</p><p>The next chart highlights the overall coverage trends for each booster campaign carried out in England.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VIROO/3/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fdf7cd30-7f70-416e-80ae-e387f34e1298_1220x936.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dee51f82-aa6c-4088-bd43-66340b0ad809_1220x1260.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:625,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;In England, coverage for those aged 75 and older in the Autumn 2025 campaign matched that of Autumn 2024 and was higher than in the Spring 2025 campaign.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Vaccine coverage by age for each booster campaign in England: Jan 31, 20265.  Hover the cursor over the key to highlight the campaign.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VIROO/3/" width="730" height="625" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Until this booster campaign, coverage had been declining for both the Autumn and Spring campaigns in England. However, for those aged 75 and over, the Autumn 2025 campaign matched the coverage levels seen in Autumn 2024.</p><p>The chart shows that, unlike past Autumn campaigns, people aged 65 to 74 weren&#8217;t eligible for Covid boosters. On top of that, the rules for being considered immunosuppressed were made stricter, which meant far fewer people qualified for the Autumn 2025 campaign compared to previous years. As a result, in England the number of boosters given during the Autumn 2025 campaign (4.7 million) was just under half of those administered in Autumn 2024 (9.8 million).</p><p>Finally, the NHS Spring 2026 Covid booster campaign will use the same eligibility criteria as the Autumn 2025 campaign and is set to run from April 13 to June 30, 2026.</p><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. Flu activity had fallen from its recent peak although and is now at low levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are low across European countries  In the USA, Covid activity also fell slightly but remains at high levels in a some states.  Flu activity in both the USA and Canada is falling.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: February 5, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-february-5</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-february-5</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2026 15:46:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/13310aa3-4084-4540-b4c4-cb733a2d79d6_1200x729.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><blockquote><p><em>Charts for the USA were updated on Friday, Feb 6 to reflect the latest available data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>This week the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland remained low, indicating a low level of risk. </strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity has continued to fall across all home nations, indicating that this year&#8217;s Flu season is over. However, there&#8217;s still a chance of some late seasonal activity.</strong></p><p>In England, the all main indicators of Covid activity remained well within the baseline activity level. Flu activity has again fallen from its recent peak and is now circulating at low activity levels.  Hospital admissions remain highest among those over 85 years old with Flu and children under 5 years with RSV.</p><p>In Scotland, although all indicators for Covid remained stable and within baseline levels. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu and RSV have fallen significantly from the recent peak and are at low levels of activity.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed at low levels.  Flu admissions continued to fall this week and are now at low activity levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity remained stable across all surveillance indicators and remains at low levels. Flu and RSV activity has fallen across all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater remained low in most European countries that still report this data.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA again fell slightly last week and is at a moderate level of activity nationwide, though there are significant variations from state to state. Flu activity continued to fall, but is still high in some states.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section begins with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/63BgC/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/25c1c22e-8e5d-4357-aff8-24cdeb0a17f3_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6d3ec811-97e0-4dee-b977-a04746a9a52f_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate remained well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/63BgC/2/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate fell slightly this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates remained low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LF6dP/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b6b3e4cf-eb1c-4b55-8907-3bb35e127709_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/381e3d68-03b5-4709-8213-c0691a9ccaac_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained low.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Feb 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LF6dP/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>While all key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels there were slight increase in Emergency Department visits. </p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are historically low, while Flu and RSV admissions have peaked and are returning to low activity levels. Both still remain higher than Covid, indicating that Flu and RSV currently pose a slightly greater risk.  If you&#8217;re experiencing Covid-like symptoms, there&#8217;s a good chance it is Flu or RSV.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/571sA/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8d9671d2-65da-423f-90ed-12675aacd115_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8edfd1fd-cf53-484c-8054-f27a4a4f2480_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:527,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid hospital admissions in England stayed low, while Flu and RSV admissions continued to fall from their recent peaks.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/571sA/1/" width="730" height="527" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>While hospital admissions are falling, they still differ by age. Below are the hospital admission rates per 100,000 people by age group for Covid, Flu, and RSV for the week ending February 1, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OXAef/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a0d8ecbd-947a-4cda-abb5-c9d4df1f470f_1220x676.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c6a0b3a0-612c-40f3-90f5-261ff1f78a87_1220x884.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:446,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions remain highest for over 85 year olds with Flu  and&nbsp;RSV, and children under 5 years with RSV.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory illnesses by age for England: Week ending Feb 1, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OXAef/2/" width="730" height="446" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the risk of hospitalisation remains highest among the very youngest age group and the elderly for both Flu and RSV. While current hospital admissions for Covid are much lower, the elderly remain more likely to be hospitalised.</p><p>While the activity levels for most respiratory viruses are falling, Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) levels have remained at a moderate level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fp8ff/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1682e2ae-05f3-447b-be96-f5970ee673d1_1220x770.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9e54eeea-fca1-421a-a55e-7d7f3cb768f5_1220x1028.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:510,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week the test positivity rate for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) remained at a moderate activity level.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percent testing positive for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) in hospital patients with respiratory illness symptoms by week in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Feb 1, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fp8ff/1/" width="730" height="510" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-5-february-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yu28Y/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1b965022-5d6c-4fd2-b56f-7b62b5be4000_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/248ece45-8be3-4d51-b735-2067e3477ff9_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland stayed low, though there was a small rise in test positivity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yu28Y/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Once again, all Covid indicators in Scotland stayed stable and low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. While Flu positivity rates have continued to fall to low levels they remain higher than for Covid. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lzZM3/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/159d19fc-5cb4-402a-98af-db98ab067e4c_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6e1be5ca-54f4-49f7-8054-bd5835120e25_1220x1024.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:508,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid test positivity in Scotland increased slightly but remained low, while Flu positivity continued to fall to low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 1, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lzZM3/2/" width="730" height="508" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Despite influenza levels peaking earlier than expected this season, high activity has not been sustained, with continued decreases seen across all measures. </p><p>Laboratory-confirmed Flu cases continued to fall to 125 from the peak of 1,994, with overall activity remaining at baseline for this week. Test positivity also fell and hospital admissions for Flu also decreased from 139 to 82, with individuals aged 75 years and older accounting for 29.3% of admissions. </p><p>RSV laboratory&#8209;confirmed cases fell to low levels this week with test positivity falling to 8.1% from 9.9%. Hospital admissions due to RSV also decreased; the highest proportion occurred in under 1 age group followed by the 1&#8211;4 age group.</p><p>Although Covid test positivity increased slightly this week, overall activity remained stable and within baseline levels. Activity rose from low to medium among 5&#8211;14 year olds, while dropping to low in children under four. Hospitalisations also declined, falling to 77 from 85 the week before.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Feb 1, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/65ghg/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6505b2e0-55e7-48c3-943f-c51178a8fbea_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/39015fb8-a433-4f6d-bd22-f0cd5d9586bb_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid stayed low, while Flu admissions have now fallen to baseline levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Feb 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/65ghg/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have stayed fairly steady over the past few months and remain very low. Flu cases needing hospitalisation continue to fall and are now lower than for Covid. RSV admissions also fell but remain at moderate levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that Flu activity has returned to low levels, but warns that the potential remains for late seasonal activity. Confirmed case numbers have decreased in the current week, as has test positivity. </p><p>In addition, GP consultations for influenza-like illness have fallen below the &#8216;low intensity&#8217; threshold. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity is decreasing overall but remains at medium intensity levels. Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable in recent weeks.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity fell across all surveillance indicators and remains at low levels. Flu activity also has fallen across all surveillance indicators and is now at low levels, while RSV activity remained stable across the majority of surveillance indicators and is circulating at moderate levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b--8!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b--8!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b--8!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b--8!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b--8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b--8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:416986,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/186758986?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b--8!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b--8!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b--8!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b--8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa15949b9-7754-4434-a048-2670f651b4d4_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, fell slightly this week and stayed relatively low. Flu test positivity, shown in green, has continued to fall indicating that the winter Flu wave is over.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. Covid levels have fallen in most countries across these regions and remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>January 29, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wdESp/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ad00a0cc-a8ea-4220-ab60-49020ba0b529_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2f42c82c-6a20-467a-9c39-4800b6fbfc2f_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater continued to fall, reaching low levels across most European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Jan 29, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wdESp/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater dropped in most European countries that still share this data, with only Denmark and Sweden reporting increases while staying at moderately low levels.</p><blockquote><p><em>Updated on Friday, February 6 to reflect the latest published data.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>January 31, 2026</strong>, Covid activity in the USA continued to fall, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QuiE3/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9a56a259-efc0-4b52-bfc9-fc3322894e58_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2334ae76-f914-47a4-a364-9e2c4408299e_1220x1298.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:645,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, COVID indicators in the USA painted a mixed picture, with wastewater activity and test positivity rates levelling off.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QuiE3/1/" width="730" height="645" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows Covid levels in wastewater remained stable and are at moderate activity for the week ending <strong>January 31, 2026</strong>. Emergency department visits and hospital admissions also fell, while Covid test positivity remained broadly unchanged.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest Mid West and Northeast states, while staying relatively low in the South and West regions, as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/M2jub/3/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/27edbc61-f5e2-4d40-a629-9df2e78642b7_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0613db80-1aa1-4b71-bd15-ad1d31a726b1_1220x1284.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:638,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater are rising in the North East and Mid West, with some states seeing high or very high activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Jan 31, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/M2jub/3/" width="730" height="638" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending <strong>January 31, 2026</strong>.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It indicates that while activity for Covid is moderate, Flu activity has has continued to fall and is now at a moderate level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LUGKu/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8eec157f-25f8-4998-a9d6-42270a07b809_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aa034b7c-759a-4608-8c85-6d7172563888_1220x1024.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA was stable for  Covid, but continued to fall for&nbsp;Flu.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Jan 24, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LUGKu/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Flu activity varies across states, with cases increasing in 24 and decreasing in 23. While most states are experiencing moderate levels, seven are still facing high or very high activity, as shown on the interactive map.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ycgCD/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cd02546e-4067-4d57-bb0d-b4ac24714009_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d80b3b31-c0aa-493e-868f-fb307244964a_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater varies across the states, but just seven are experiencing high or very high activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Jan 31, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ycgCD/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada, up to <strong>January 24, 2026</strong>, shows that Covid wastewater levels are holding steady at moderate levels, flu activity has dropped to low, but RSV activity is on the rise.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZGrUe/3/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4c9ede05-ed1e-4cc0-9957-a24367d3bc98_1220x508.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2e509077-c01e-402b-b0d9-183cb03c9181_1220x786.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:389,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid activity in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, Flu activity continued to fall, and&nbsp;RSV levels increased.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid, Flu A, and RSV levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Jan 24, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZGrUe/3/" width="730" height="389" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. Flu activity had fallen from its recent peak although and is now at low levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are dropping across European countries and are low in most areas. In the USA, Covid activity also fell slightly but remains at high levels in a some states.  Flu activity in both the USA and Canada is falling.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: January 29, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-january-29</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-january-29</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 29 Jan 2026 15:22:06 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/87bd4aaa-c9f1-4b59-966e-06febc1eb179_652x435.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><blockquote><p><em>Charts for the USA were updated on Friday, January 30 to reflect the latest available data.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>This week the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland remained low, indicating a low level of risk. However, there were slight increases in some indicators for England and Northern Ireland.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity has continued to fall across all home nations, indicating that this years winter Flu season is almost over.</strong></p><p>In England, the Covid test positivity rate and key hospital indicators showed mixed trends this week, but remain well within the baseline activity level. Flu activity has again fallen from its recent peak and is now circulating at low activity levels.  Hospital admissions remain highest among those over 85 years old with Flu and children under 5 years with RSV.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators of Covid activity remained at low levels of activity this week. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu have fallen significantly from the recent peak and are at low levels of activity.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed at low levels.  Flu admissions continued to fall this week and are returning to low activity levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity increased across some surveillance indicators but remains at low levels. Flu activity has fallen across all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater fell in most European countries that still report this data.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA again fell slightly last week and is at a medium level of activity nationwide, though there are significant variations from state to state. Flu activity continued to fall, but is still high in some states.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section begins with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gQ2mo/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e967988d-c8f6-415f-b0d0-5398f273411a_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/78657aff-d03e-4fb1-9666-3bc27835eef7_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate stayed well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Jan 25, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gQ2mo/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate increased slightly this week but continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates remained low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vCXtX/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/46b62af2-d6ed-47e2-9d41-287e75b98dad_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/56833e89-b963-4683-a75b-7f93f2eaf2e8_1220x1212.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:602,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, hospital indicators for Covid in England stayed low, but there were slight increases in emergency visits and the positivity rate.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Jan 25, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vCXtX/1/" width="730" height="602" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>While all key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained at historically low levels there were slight increases in Emergency Department visits and the positivity rate. </p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are historically low, while Flu and RSV admissions have peaked and are returning to low activity levels. Both still remain higher than Covid, indicating that Flu and RSV currently pose a slightly greater risk.  If you&#8217;re experiencing Covid-like symptoms, there&#8217;s a good chance it is Flu or RSV.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9pftA/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/efa3c70f-4925-42e4-ba3c-6b4ca257767a_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5f72a41e-4c6f-4314-a8a9-47d9ecf8bf7b_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:527,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid hospital admissions in England stayed low, while Flu and RSV admissions continued to fall from their recent peaks.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Jan 25, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9pftA/1/" width="730" height="527" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>While hospital admissions are falling, they still differ by age. Below are the hospital admission rates per 100,000 people by age group for Covid, Flu, and RSV for the week ending January 25, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fnuqY/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4015602c-c07c-4c7d-821b-01b991b22de9_1220x676.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c66a29e7-8c21-4d06-bcd2-386e04ab4fbd_1220x884.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:446,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions remain highest for over 85 year olds with Flu  and&nbsp;RSV, and children under 5 years with RSV.&nbsp; &nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory illnesses by age for England: Week ending Jan 25, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fnuqY/1/" width="730" height="446" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the risk of hospitalisation remains highest among the very youngest age group and the elderly for both Flu and RSV. While current hospital admissions for Covid are much lower, the elderly remain more likely to be hospitalised.</p><p>While the activity levels for most respiratory viruses are falling, Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) levels have increased recently although they remain at a moderately low level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xub9D/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d467bdf2-94a1-4b4c-92f1-26b2acd0aedb_1220x770.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/28251804-ce7a-4723-b01b-c0b0ccc158cd_1220x1028.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:510,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week the test positivity rate for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) remained at a moderate activity level .&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percent testing positive for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) in hospital patients with respiratory illness symptoms by week in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Jan 25, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xub9D/1/" width="730" height="510" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-29-january-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Rl4NV/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/573c75ee-5d20-4e28-b07d-b99b858ce902_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a5bcd42b-ff72-491f-b196-a616db64994c_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland stayed at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 25, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Rl4NV/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Once again, all Covid indicators in Scotland stayed stable and low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. While Flu positivity rates have continued to fall to low levels they remain higher than for Covid. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uj9II/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/29f050e4-9209-4988-9dfd-3c22024343f7_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7ae40553-c3a9-4e64-9d67-a0829fe0f992_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid test positivity in Scotland stayed low this week, while Flu positivity has fallen to low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 25, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uj9II/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Despite influenza levels peaking earlier than expected this season, high activity has not been sustained, with continued decreases seen across all measures. </p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Jan 25, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1whQ9/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/197b0945-7930-4df9-96e4-a359710339e7_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/33c8e7ce-c63f-41b9-816a-9bf5da309d06_1220x1064.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid remained low, while Flu admissions continued to fall and are now at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 25, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1whQ9/2/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have stayed fairly steady over the past few months and remain very low at baseline levels. Flu cases needing hospitalisation are falling, while RSV admissions remain stable at moderate levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that Flu activity is returning to low levels, but potential remains for late seasonal activity. Confirmed case numbers have decreased in the current week, as has test positivity. </p><p>In addition, GP consultations for influenza-like illness have fallen below the &#8216;low intensity&#8217; threshold. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity is decreasing overall but remains at medium intensity levels. Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable in recent weeks.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity increased across some surveillance indicators but remains at low levels. Meanwhile, Flu activity has fallen across all surveillance indicators and is reaching low levels, while RSV activity increased slightly across the majority of surveillance indicators and is circulating at moderate levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-5y!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-5y!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-5y!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-5y!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-5y!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-5y!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:411237,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/186096392?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-5y!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-5y!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-5y!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-5y!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14884ff-12af-4a6f-a423-a75da4959ef4_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, increased slightly this week although remaining relatively low. Flu test positivity, shown in green, has continued to fall confirming that the winter Flu wave is over.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. Covid levels have fallen in most countries across these regions and remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>January 22, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PnAbu/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/54cba10e-cdad-4ceb-b6b1-b664dab8f67e_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3c16fb6f-aca4-4d7d-b0c9-3469154eeec1_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater have continued to fall, reaching low levels across most European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Jan 22, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PnAbu/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater dropped in most European countries that still share this data, with only Denmark and Austria reporting increases while staying at moderate levels.</p><blockquote><p><em>Updated on Friday, January 30 to reflect the latest published data.</em></p></blockquote><p>As of week ending <strong>January 24, 2026</strong>, Covid activity in the USA continued to fall, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/e35XY/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/06e589e6-d665-4f7b-bcca-1bbaa0ea3134_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ed730602-456a-41ab-8796-22f5cfaceb3f_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, most Covid indicators for the USA fell, with wastewater activity now at moderate levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Jan 24, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/e35XY/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows Covid levels in wastewater fell slightly and are now moderate for the week ending January 24, 2026. Emergency department visits and hospital admissions also fell, while Covid test positivity remained broadly unchanged.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest Mid West and Northeast states, while staying relatively low in the South and West regions, as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iadiR/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9167fb41-55b8-49a7-a446-cc9c0b13b1e6_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/263006a4-912e-4f55-8466-2cae55637ae0_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater are falling in many states, though some are still seeing high or very high activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Jan 24, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iadiR/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending January 24, 2026.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It indicates that while activity for Covid is moderate, Flu activity has has continued to fall and is now at a moderately low level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wv5q0/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1393b7d5-8f7e-4612-b74c-6ea7ed436323_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ec55b47a-fb2c-447d-9af4-6c64c121f5e6_1220x1024.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:508,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA was stable for  Covid, but continued to fall significantly for&nbsp;Flu.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Jan 24, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wv5q0/2/" width="730" height="508" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Flu activity varies across states, with cases falling in 29 states, with only 6 still seeing high or very high levels, as shown on the interactive map.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AKxsR/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d8a53adb-a264-4cd3-9b53-1df75a3cb01a_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9656f231-f220-420c-ba02-e152eb312dff_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater have fallen across many states, with just six still experiencing high or very high activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Jan 24, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AKxsR/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada, up to January 17, 2026, shows that Covid wastewater levels remain steady at moderate levels, while flu activity has fallen to low activity levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wTwlG/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a7faa90f-b034-45de-901b-66d159c8853c_1220x508.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/23d14f0b-0c7d-4d6f-acd1-410844431f0c_1220x786.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:389,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, while Flu levels have continued to fall.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid and Flu A levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Jan 17, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wTwlG/1/" width="730" height="389" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. Flu activity had fallen from its recent peak although and is now at low levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are dropping across European countries and are low in most areas. In the USA, Covid activity also fell slightly but remains at high levels in a some states.  Flu activity in both the USA and Canada is falling.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: January 22, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-january-22</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-january-22</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2026 15:10:49 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7f42061d-3397-491a-947d-edfd611c0adf_1024x655.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><p><em>Online version updated on January 23, 2026 with latest USA data.</em></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>2026 continues with good news as the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland remain low, signalling a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity has continued to fall across all home nations, indicating that this years winter Flu season is almost over.</strong></p><p>In England, the Covid test positivity rate and key hospital indicators stayed steady this week, well within the baseline activity level. Flu activity has again fallen from its recent peak and is now circulating at low activity levels.  Hospital admissions remain highest among those over 85 years old with Flu and children under 5 years with RSV.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators of Covid activity remained at low levels of activity this week. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu have fallen significantly from the recent peak and are approaching low levels of activity.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales stayed at low levels.  Flu hospital admissions continued to fall this week but remain at medium activity levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity was stable across all surveillance indicators in the past week and remains at low levels. Flu activity has fallen across all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater fell in most European countries that still report this data.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA fell slightly this week and has returned to a medium level of activity nationwide, though there are significant variations from state to state. Flu activity is starting to fall, but is still high in many states.</p><p>Free vaccinations in the Autumn 2025 booster campaign will be available for adults aged 75 and older; residents in care homes for older adults; and immunosuppressed individuals aged 6 months and above until January 31, 2026.</p><p>People registered with a GP surgery in England can check their eligibility and book a vaccination appointment through this link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Book a Covid Booster&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/"><span>Book a Covid Booster</span></a></p><p>Details of booking a free NHS Covid vaccination in Scotland can be found <strong><a href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/healthy-living/immunisation/winter-vaccines/">here</a></strong>, for Wales <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/">here</a></strong>, and in Northern Ireland <strong><a href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/covid-19-vaccine">here</a></strong>.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section begins with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nkHQt/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ccbbfc33-e63e-45ee-ac62-310720f9c651_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f71a5aef-58d6-428c-b8f0-07ab827dc287_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate stayed low and is well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Jan 18, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nkHQt/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate remained stable this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates remained low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GTGhH/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bd1025bd-961c-41d3-b8d0-82433d80e0f8_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fbd42628-b5c7-4b40-91e9-0b0ba7b9966e_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Jan 18, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GTGhH/2/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained stable this week and overall activity is at historically low levels. </p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are historically low, while Flu and RSV admissions have peaked and are close to low activity levels. However, both remain higher than Covid, indicating that Flu and RSV currently pose a greater risk.  If you&#8217;re experiencing Covid-like symptoms, there&#8217;s a good chance it is Flu or RSV.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KICz6/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a4f62836-1c54-458d-8975-0d6d919678d7_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/859848d7-1cf5-4db1-954e-052103cfc4be_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid&nbsp;hospital admissions in England stayed low, while&nbsp;Flu&nbsp;admissions continued to fall from their recent peak.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Jan 18, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KICz6/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>While hospital admissions are falling, they still differ by age. Below are the hospital admission rates per 100,000 people by age group for Covid, Flu, and RSV for the week ending January 18, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lO1n9/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/233903d1-2ef1-4f46-b0d9-d952a779eae0_1220x676.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/474d90e0-9359-4b65-9ed2-ce5c670e993d_1220x884.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:446,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions remain highest for over 85 year olds with Flu  and&nbsp;RSV, and children under 5 years with RSV.&nbsp;&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory illnesses by age for England: Week ending Jan 18, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lO1n9/1/" width="730" height="446" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the risk of hospitalisation remains highest among the very youngest age group and the elderly for both Flu and RSV. While current hospital admissions for Covid are much lower, the elderly remain more likely to be hospitalised.</p><p>Although the activity levels for most respiratory viruses are falling, Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) levels are increasing although it remains at a moderately low level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7juNi/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ff195b62-ae78-4fa2-9412-9a955cfd1a27_1220x770.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/547571c8-28eb-4352-ab4e-671eebd74ac0_1220x1028.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:510,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week the test positivity rate for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) increased and is now at a moderate level of activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percent testing positive for Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) in hospital patients with respiratory illness symptoms by week in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Jan 18, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7juNi/1/" width="730" height="510" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, while Flu activity is falling, it&#8217;s still  a good idea to check your eligibility and book a free vaccination through the following link if you have not already done so.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in England&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/"><span>Flu vaccinations in England</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-22-january-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0rdcY/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ef7f6e64-e0e7-4c5b-b9da-3fa0b658345c_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b353c74b-c433-4f98-924c-b02507f23746_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland remained at low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 18, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0rdcY/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Once again, all Covid indicators in Scotland stayed stable and low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. While Flu positivity rates have continued to fall they remain higher than for Covid. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pvFWH/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c26b4f68-f7e8-4bfb-b035-cabd1336c6a1_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1ad87478-28cf-4f5c-b437-d42617dd9df8_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid test positivity in Scotland stayed low this week, while Flu positivity continues to fall.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 18, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pvFWH/2/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Despite influenza levels peaking earlier than expected this season, high activity has not been sustained, with continued decreases seen across all measures. Confirmed cases fell by 33%, from 505 last week to 335 this week, remaining at low activity overall. There were 179 hospital admissions due to Flu this week, down from 239 in the previous week; more than 39% were among those aged 75 years and older. Influenza A(H3N2) continues to dominate.</p><p>RSV case rates have fallen this week, although test positivity increased slightly from 8.9% to 9.1%. RSV test positivity increased in children 1-5 years and those aged over 75 years but decreased or remained stable in all other ages groups. Hospital admissions due to RSV decreased to 134; the highest proportion occurred in infants under 1 year, followed by children aged 1-4 years and adults aged 75 and over.</p><p>Although the Flu season is coming to an end in Scotland, it&#8217;s still possible to check if you're eligible for a free Flu vaccination <strong><a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/population-health/health-protection/immunisation-vaccine-and-preventable-disease/seasonal-immunisations/flu-immunisations/adult-flu-immunisations/overview/">here</a></strong>. If you haven't been contacted yet, you can still book your vaccination using the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Scotland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu"><span>Flu vaccinations in Scotland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Jan 18, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wTNxP/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dc3e45e6-8052-4b73-9a0f-b31ba1cef1bd_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d2db2b70-27a1-498d-ab83-4b501f52f6f2_1220x1064.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid remained low, while Flu admissions continued to fall and are at moderate levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 18, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wTNxP/2/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have stayed fairly steady over the past few months and remain very low at baseline levels. Flu cases needing hospitalisation are falling, while RSV admissions remain stable at moderate levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that Flu whilst activity is at a medium level it is returning to low intensity levels. Confirmed case numbers have decreased in the current week, as has test positivity. In the week ending January 11, 2026, GP consultations for influenza-like illness are now at baseline levels.</p><p>Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity is also on the decline, though at a slower pace, and remains at medium intensity levels.</p><p>Free Flu vaccinations are still available for individuals aged 65 and older, certain young children, pregnant women, and those with specific medical conditions. You can check your eligibility and book a vaccination through the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Wales&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How"><span>Flu vaccinations in Wales</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity activity has remained stable and at low levels across all surveillance indicators. Meanwhile, Flu activity has fallen across all surveillance indicators and is approaching low levels, while RSV activity has decreased across most surveillance indicators and is circulating at moderate levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J0bx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0e913c02-6880-49c3-8417-5053578ceb84_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J0bx!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0e913c02-6880-49c3-8417-5053578ceb84_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J0bx!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0e913c02-6880-49c3-8417-5053578ceb84_1308x1006.png 848w, 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J0bx!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0e913c02-6880-49c3-8417-5053578ceb84_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J0bx!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0e913c02-6880-49c3-8417-5053578ceb84_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J0bx!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0e913c02-6880-49c3-8417-5053578ceb84_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J0bx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0e913c02-6880-49c3-8417-5053578ceb84_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, has again remained stable this week, indicating a low level of Covid activity. Flu test positivity, shown in green, has continued to fall confirming that this wave has peaked.</p><p>Information about who qualifies for free flu vaccinations and how to schedule an appointment can be found at the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine"><span>Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. Covid levels have fallen in most countries across these regions and remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows latest levels of Covid up to week ending <strong>January 15, 2026</strong> as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GfeOS/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/757fe909-7dcb-4331-b799-76e3c6166905_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6db5ef5c-12a2-434a-824e-f99076f833ac_1220x1194.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater continued to fall in most European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Jan 15, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GfeOS/1/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater dropped in most European countries that still share this data, with only Denmark and Austria reporting increases while staying at moderate levels.</p><p>As of week ending <strong>January 17, 2026</strong>, Covid activity in the USA continued to fall, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lwHZK/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a1a3d147-bf02-4e3a-9106-3e2772cf0d55_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f9854352-5dea-457d-aae3-160581fddddf_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid indicators for the USA fell, with wastewater activity now at moderate levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Jan 17, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lwHZK/2/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows Covid levels in wastewater fell slightly and are now moderate for the week ending January 17, 2026. Emergency department visits and hospital admissions also fell, while Covid test positivity remained broadly unchanged.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest Mid West and Northeast states, while staying relatively low in the South and West regions, as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/R2XPf/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/55432960-203f-41af-adcf-d81ae05a2b3b_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e1fb1853-06a9-4636-84de-650f5edb1c10_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater are falling in most states, though some are still seeing high or very high activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Jan 17, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/R2XPf/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending January 17, 2026.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It indicates that while activity for Covid is moderate, Flu activity has has continued to fall and is now at a moderate level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TGxNp/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/18f79ef4-eb4b-498c-a9b0-c648bb699bf9_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a2595fbb-c99b-4f6f-acc2-c11e060d9575_1220x1024.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA fell slightly for  Covid and significantly for&nbsp;Flu.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Jan 17, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TGxNp/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Flu activity varies across states, with cases falling in 42 states, with only 6 still seeing high or very high levels, as shown on the interactive map.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QKhzR/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a4e2e889-c894-4c3b-b493-7ab014e14027_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f11988e8-ed44-4a67-be7b-507141efe171_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater have fallen across most states, with just six still experiencing high or very high activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Jan 17, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QKhzR/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada, up to January 10, 2026, shows that Covid wastewater levels remain steady at moderate levels, while flu activity has peaked.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q2n6x/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/da5aa9fc-99fc-471e-8a99-54277e7ae4c3_1220x508.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cd0e28cf-c4b7-414a-9be2-8e433142b57f_1220x786.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:389,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, while Flu levels have fallen significantly.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid and Flu A levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Jan 10, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q2n6x/1/" width="730" height="389" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. Flu activity had fallen from its recent peak although and is approaching low levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are falling in most European countries. In the USA, Covid activity also fell slightly but remains at high levels in a some states.  Flu activity in both the USA and Canada has started to fall.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: January 15, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-january-15</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-january-15</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 15 Jan 2026 15:14:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/261b1b61-61d5-4bd0-9003-f12b8999f5b6_768x469.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. </p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>2026 continues the good news with the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland remaining low, indicating a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu and RSV activity has fallen to medium levels for all home nations, indicating that this years winter Flu season has peaked.</strong></p><p>In England, the Covid test positivity rate and key hospital indicators stayed steady this week, well within the baseline activity level. Although Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now circulating at medium levels.  Hospital admissions remain highest among those over 85 years old with Flu and children under 5 years with RSV.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators of Covid activity remained at low levels of activity this week. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu have fallen significantly from the recent peak but remain at medium levels of activity.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales remained at low levels of activity.  Flu hospital admissions fell this week but are still at medium activity levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity was stable across all surveillance indicators in the past week and remains at low levels. Flu activity has fallen across all indicators.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater fell in most European countries that still report this data.</p><p>Covid activity in the USA continued to increase and is now at a high level nationwide, though there are significant variations from state to state. Flu activity has risen sharply and is at high levels in many states.</p><p>Free vaccinations in the Autumn 2025 booster campaign will be available for adults aged 75 and older; residents in care homes for older adults; and immunosuppressed individuals aged 6 months and above until January 31, 2026.</p><p>People registered with a GP surgery in England can check their eligibility and book a vaccination appointment through this link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Book a Covid Booster&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/"><span>Book a Covid Booster</span></a></p><p>Details of booking a free NHS Covid vaccination in Scotland can be found <strong><a href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/healthy-living/immunisation/winter-vaccines/">here</a></strong>, for Wales <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/">here</a></strong>, and in Northern Ireland <strong><a href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/covid-19-vaccine">here</a></strong>.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section begins with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oChHr/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c74b4364-d790-4355-8556-a34f9faa4fc6_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/838c859f-3b21-4858-adcd-ee15eb3b5e4a_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate remained low and is well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Jan 11, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oChHr/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate remained stable this week and continues to be well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates remained low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OK3Ae/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6176e695-5883-46f2-8416-49d8272dd899_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/881b5968-3ba8-4852-a45f-9e6541ecc29d_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England stayed at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Jan 11, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OK3Ae/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained stable this week and overall activity is at historically low levels. </p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are historically low, while Flu and RSV admissions have peaked and are at medium activity levels. However, both remain higher than Covid, indicating that Flu and RSV currently pose a greater risk.  If you&#8217;re experiencing Covid-like symptoms, there&#8217;s a good chance it is Flu or RSV.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ijIyY/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ccf353a3-0b84-4817-bfb7-64dace9f5c81_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/65c2428a-2263-4fc1-a7ed-ec2b36786dce_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid&nbsp;hospital admissions in England stayed low, while&nbsp;Flu&nbsp;admissions continued to fall from their recent peak.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Jan 11, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ijIyY/2/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The last chart in this section shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 people by age group for Covid, Flu, and RSV for the week ending January 11, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BTZNM/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/96256dee-6368-4baa-a671-721377b00c25_1220x676.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9e952261-c345-4da9-9138-741a10d296e2_1220x884.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:446,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions remain highest for over 85 year olds with Flu  and&nbsp;RSV, and children under 5 years with RSV.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory illnesses by age for England: Week ending Jan 11, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BTZNM/2/" width="730" height="446" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart clearly shows that the risk of hospitalisation remains highest among the very youngest age group and the elderly for both Flu and RSV. While current hospital admissions for Covid are much lower, the elderly remain more likely to be hospitalised.</p><p>Although Flu activity is falling, it&#8217;s still  a good idea to check your eligibility and book a free vaccination through the following link if you have not already done so.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in England&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/"><span>Flu vaccinations in England</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-15-january-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for Covid levels in wastewater in blue, weekly Covid test positivity shown in red,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/r5643/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/677307a3-0fb3-46a2-a164-c5042fd3dc4d_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/110b9050-632d-466e-8d4e-4cea3dfcdadd_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland stayed at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 11, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/r5643/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Once again, all Covid indicators in Scotland stayed stable and low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. While Flu positivity rates have continued to fall they remain higher than for Covid. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mFPRa/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d98451d0-991d-48bc-a523-2a3b1d79e389_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/045f9301-9f18-40a5-a42c-f38d9d647943_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid test positivity in Scotland remained low this week, while Flu positivity continues to fall.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 11, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mFPRa/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Although Flu levels peaked earlier than expected this season, the high activity hasn&#8217;t lasted, with steady drops across all measures. Confirmed cases fell by 18.3%, from 602 last week to 492 this week, keeping overall activity low. Hospital admissions also declined, with 226 this week compared to 303 the week before; over 38% were among people aged 75 and older. Influenza A(H3N2) remains the dominant strain.</p><p>RSV case rates have dropped compared to the previous week, with test positivity falling from 11.4% to 8.7%. Test positivity is going down among children under 14 and in the 15&#8211;44 and 65&#8211;74 age groups, but it&#8217;s still rising in adults aged 45&#8211;64 and those over 75. Hospital admissions due to RSV are down to 169, with infants under 1 year making up 28.4% of admissions and adults 75 and older accounting for 25.4%.</p><p>Although the Flu season is coming to an end in Scotland, it&#8217;s still possible to check if you're eligible for a free Flu vaccination <strong><a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/population-health/health-protection/immunisation-vaccine-and-preventable-disease/seasonal-immunisations/flu-immunisations/adult-flu-immunisations/overview/">here</a></strong>. If you haven't been contacted yet, you can still book your vaccination using the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Scotland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu"><span>Flu vaccinations in Scotland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Jan 11, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TYbvk/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1d3d58b5-dcf0-4fb3-b04b-c713619e78b6_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/53a89677-dff4-4966-b7ec-b3aeefcb063e_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid&nbsp;stayed low while&nbsp;Flu&nbsp;admissions fell to moderate levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 11, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TYbvk/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have stayed fairly steady over the past few weeks and remain very low. Flu cases needing hospitalisation are falling, while RSV admissions remain stable at moderate levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that Flu activity  remains at a medium level. Confirmed case numbers have decreased in the current week, as has test positivity. In the week ending January 4, 2026, GP consultations for influenza-like illness dropped to low levels.</p><p>Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity is also decreasing and is now at medium intensity levels. </p><p>Free Flu vaccinations are still available for individuals aged 65 and older, certain young children, pregnant women, and those with specific medical conditions. You can check your eligibility and book a vaccination through the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Wales&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How"><span>Flu vaccinations in Wales</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity activity has remained stable and at low levels across all surveillance indicators. Meanwhile, Flu activity has fallen across all surveillance indicators while RSV activity has decreased across most surveillance indicators and is circulating at moderately low levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2uk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2uk!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2uk!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2uk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2uk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2uk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:427346,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/184636164?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2uk!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2uk!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2uk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2uk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cc790c8-689d-4a0a-8d0d-61b626728ff4_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, has again remained stable this week, indicating a low level of Covid activity. Flu test positivity, shown in green, has continued to fall confirming that this wave has peaked.</p><p>Information about who qualifies for free flu vaccinations and how to schedule an appointment can be found at the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine"><span>Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. While Covid levels have increased in several countries across these regions, they generally remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows the latest levels of Covid up to week ending January 8, 2026 as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oGbMz/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9e3df64d-d834-4443-9457-1447ac19357d_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ef24b5fc-490b-4887-b851-6441ab33e7d7_1220x1222.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:591,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater fell in most European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Jan 8, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oGbMz/2/" width="730" height="591" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, Covid levels in wastewater dropped in most European countries that still share this data, with only France seeing a slight increase but staying at low levels.</p><p>As of week ending January 3, 2026, Covid activity in the USA continues to increase, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, test positivity, and the hospital admission rate in the USA. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ShRZj/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/70ae61c8-3086-409e-acf4-8bad226f75ed_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b2b66c07-01f9-48bd-a354-ca868d1b0b40_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, COVID indicators across the USA have increased, with wastewater activity levels now reaching high.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Jan 3, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ShRZj/2/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows Covid levels in wastewater have climbed and are now high for the week ending January 3, 2026. Emergency department visits and Covid test positivity have also increased to moderate levels, while hospital admissions remain relatively low.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest in the Northeast and Mid West states, while staying relatively low in the South and West regions, as illustrated in the map below. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/q7CZP/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/06e45b9d-d05b-4d46-b7f4-da9721a667e9_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/be80a661-e7a2-4d1e-89b6-63105949b530_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater have risen across most states, with many experiencing high or very high activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Jan 3, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/q7CZP/1/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state using your cursor to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It shows data from states nationwide for the week ending January 3, 2026.</p><p>The next chart compares the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It indicates that while activity for Covid is moderate, Flu activity has continued to increase significantly and is at a high level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hrgGg/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/07865968-0f64-4988-bba4-f9c5f73ba87e_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af8acd1a-2f90-426b-b26a-a89b67dbba3d_1220x1024.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:508,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA rose slightly for  Covid and increased significantly for Flu.&nbsp; &nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Jan 3, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hrgGg/1/" width="730" height="508" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Flu activity levels also differ across states, as shown on the following interactive map, with cases on the rise in 28 states, including 21 experiencing high or very high levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/p8phy/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a5182f14-84d0-47c5-a894-f3a6b592fb4e_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fe117a2f-b131-4ce6-aff1-016f652ecf73_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater continue to rise across most states, with many experiencing very high activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Jan 3, 2026. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/p8phy/1/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada, up to December 27, 2025, shows that Covid wastewater levels remain steady at moderate levels, while flu activity may have peaked.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/InNob/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6ae45956-2f0b-4de7-8154-e4c6db19de51_1220x508.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/df4611a8-3eba-4811-9576-d5de369f1c4a_1220x736.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:362,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, while Flu levels remain high.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid and Flu A levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Dec 27, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/InNob/1/" width="730" height="362" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. Flu activity had fallen from its recent peak although is still at moderate levels.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater are falling in most European countries. In the USA, Covid activity is increasing and at high levels with a few states showing very high levels.  Flu activity in both the USA and Canada has increased significantly over the past few weeks.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[ Covid Situation Report: January 8, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-january-8</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-january-8</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2026 16:17:05 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/74b7c105-8560-45b2-9bfd-4c14a2973d13_759x622.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><blockquote><p><strong>As this is the first report of 2026, I&#8217;d like to welcome readers back after the break and wish everyone a happy and healthy New Year!</strong></p></blockquote><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. Finally, there&#8217;s an update on the latest status of the Autumn 2025 Covid booster campaign including data on inequalities in coverage across England.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>2026 starts with the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland remaining low, indicating a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu and RSV activity remains at medium levels for all home nations, although there are signs that this years winter Flu season has peaked.</strong></p><p>In England, the Covid test positivity rate and key hospital indicators stayed steady this week, well within the baseline activity level. Although Flu activity has fallen from its recent peak and is now circulating at medium levels, this weeks activity showed mixed trends.  Hospital admissions remain highest among people over 85 years old with Flu and children under 5 years with RSV.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators of Covid activity remained at low levels of activity this week. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu have fallen significantly from the recent peak but remain at medium levels of activity.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales remained at low levels of activity.  Flu-related hospital admissions have dropped from their recent peak but held steady this week, staying at medium activity levels.</p><p>In Northern Ireland, Covid activity was stable across all surveillance indicators in the past week and remains at low levels. Flu activity has fallen across most indicators.</p><p>This week sees a mixed picture for European countries reporting Covid levels in wastewater. Levels increased in some countries, though activity levels varied considerable between countries.</p><p>This week, Covid activity in the USA has risen to a moderate level nationwide, though there are significant variations from state to state. Flu activity has risen sharply and is at high levels in many states.</p><p>The NHS Autumn Covid booster campaign started on October 1, 2025 with the aim of completing most vaccinations by the end of November 2025. While there&#8217;s been reasonably good progress for those aged 75 and older, immunosuppressed individuals still have much lower coverage.</p><p>In England, coverage among the immunosuppressed for all age groups remains much lower at just 38%. There are also significant differences in coverage between regions, ethnic groups, and more deprived areas.</p><p>Free vaccinations in the Autumn 2025 booster campaign will be available for adults aged 75 and older; residents in care homes for older adults; and immunosuppressed individuals aged 6 months and above until January 31, 2026.</p><p>People registered with a GP surgery in England can check their eligibility and book a vaccination appointment through this link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Book a Covid Booster&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/"><span>Book a Covid Booster</span></a></p><p>Details of booking a free NHS Covid vaccination in Scotland can be found <strong><a href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/healthy-living/immunisation/winter-vaccines/">here</a></strong>, for Wales <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/">here</a></strong>, and in Northern Ireland <strong><a href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/covid-19-vaccine">here</a></strong>.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section begins with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CCari/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/29191171-848d-4b6a-9c75-6086a209d66b_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ca7f1300-873c-4b68-8e2d-b4f4155c6f4d_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate stayed low and remains well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Jan 4, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CCari/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate remained stable this week and continues to stay well below the baseline level, indicating a low risk. Positivity rates remained low in all regions, with only slight differences between them.</p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/753x9/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f59783ad-da53-4201-8c28-c6b03aa9f72a_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5b5116dc-145c-4187-b9be-db89a9047510_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Jan 4, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/753x9/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained stable this week and overall activity is at historically low levels. </p><p>The following chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are historically low, while Flu and RSV admissions appear to have peaked at medium activity levels. However, both are now much higher than Covid, indicating that Flu and RSV currently pose a greater risk.  If you&#8217;re experiencing Covid-like symptoms, there&#8217;s a good chance it is Flu or RSV.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/y8ZoD/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2f76c421-bee0-4b1e-aa77-f2417cb18b93_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/98bb5cd8-a021-42ca-ad06-dcc1cd71dd57_1220x1062.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:527,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid&nbsp;hospital admission rates&nbsp;in England stayed low, while&nbsp;Flu&nbsp;admissions saw a slight increase but have dropped from their recent peak.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Dec 21, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/y8ZoD/2/" width="730" height="527" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The last chart in this section shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 people by age group for Covid, Flu, and RSV for the week ending January 4, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/L9xuc/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ee2ea940-142c-4170-888b-9a7fa38e0b17_1220x676.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/15ccf970-7100-4c53-860a-661d7733794b_1220x884.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:446,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions are highest for over 85 years old with Flu  and&nbsp;RSV&nbsp;and children under 5 years with RSV.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory illnesses by age for England: Week ending Jan 4, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/L9xuc/1/" width="730" height="446" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart clearly shows that the risk of hospitalisation remains highest among the very youngest age group and the elderly for both Flu and RSV. While current hospital admissions for Covid are lower, the elderly remain more likely to be hospitalised.</p><p>Finally, the UKHSA released a <strong><a href="https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2025.30.46.2500854">study </a></strong>this week<strong> </strong>on how effective this year&#8217;s Flu vaccine is at preventing visits to Emergency Departments and hospitalisations.  The study concluded that despite the emergence of a drifted influenza A(H3N2) strain driving an unusually early 2025/26 Flu season, early estimates provide reassurance that current  vaccines provide protection in children, adolescents and adults in the early period post-vaccination. However, they were less protective in those aged 65 years and older. </p><p>With the Flu season underway, it&#8217;s a good idea to check your eligibility and book a free vaccination through the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in England&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/"><span>Flu vaccinations in England</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-8-january-2026/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for weekly Covid test positivity shown in red, Covid levels in wastewater in blue, Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/70UQH/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/39467bc6-2c70-48aa-87f4-c3049da2a228_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/926c44e9-d5fa-4425-89d5-8fb366979f89_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland remained at low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 4, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/70UQH/2/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid indicators in Scotland stayed stable and low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. While Flu positivity rates have started to fall rapidly they remain higher than for Covid. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TAw0m/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/06443025-45d0-425f-a8f3-33eafa2a2b0b_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e99f5f46-296e-4faa-b757-7bcc584d8ece_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid test positivity in Scotland remained low this week, while Flu positivity continues to fall rapidly.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 4, 2026&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TAw0m/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Despite Flu levels peaking earlier than expected this season, high activity has not been sustained, with decreases seen across all measures. Influenza A(H3N2) continues to dominate.</p><p>RSV laboratory confirmed case rates have fallen overall in the past two weeks, though test positivity continued to increase to 10.8%. Through both measures, RSV activity has since decreased in children aged under 5 but continues to rise in adults aged 45 plus. Hospital admissions due to RSV decreased to 242, driven by decreases in those aged under 5.  This is typical of RSV seasonality, with peaks observed first in infants before older adults.</p><p>With the Flu season well underway in Scotland, now is the time to check if you're eligible for a free Flu vaccination <strong><a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/population-health/health-protection/immunisation-vaccine-and-preventable-disease/seasonal-immunisations/flu-immunisations/adult-flu-immunisations/overview/">here</a></strong>. If you haven't been contacted yet, you can still book your vaccination using the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Scotland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu"><span>Flu vaccinations in Scotland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Jan 4, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vQopp/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/29208412-f25e-43be-b30f-d6f41861068e_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8ec024ca-827d-4f72-9de0-0b5a45f2f351_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid&nbsp;remained low while&nbsp;Flu and&nbsp;RSV showed signs of increasing.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Jan 4, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vQopp/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have remained broadly stable for the past few weeks and are at low levels. Flu and RSV admissions show signs of increasing, but remain at moderate levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that Flu activity  remains at a medium level. Although hospital admissions for Flu increased slightly, confirmed case numbers have decreased in the current week, as has test positivity.  Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is decreasing but remains at very high intensity levels. Covid case numbers have remained broadly stable and low in recent weeks.</p><p>Free Flu vaccinations are still available for individuals aged 65 and older, certain young children, pregnant women, and those with specific medical conditions. You can check your eligibility and book a vaccination through the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Wales&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How"><span>Flu vaccinations in Wales</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity activity has remained stable and at low levels across all surveillance indicators. Meanwhile, Flu activity has decreased across the majority of surveillance indicators although rates are highest in young children. RSV activity has decreased across some surveillance indicators and is circulating at moderately low levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5nf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5nf!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5nf!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5nf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5nf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5nf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:418590,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/183888852?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5nf!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5nf!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5nf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5nf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faeae40d9-7149-4ccf-bcf9-3d6756d93c08_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, has stayed about the same this week, indicating a low level of Covid activity. Flu test positivity, shown in green, has continued to fall indicating that  this wave has peaked.</p><p>Information about who qualifies for free flu vaccinations and how to schedule an appointment can be found at the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine"><span>Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. While Covid levels have increased in several countries across these regions, they generally remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows the latest levels of Covid as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information. Unfortunately, due to the end of year holidays. data for the last week of 2025 has not been published for Germany, Denmark, and France.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FHN2x/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7fcfa959-e6d9-41bf-a9e7-32b4df68b8dc_1220x900.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/07bc2d0e-60a4-42c6-9aad-952e8e0a8dfa_1220x1166.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:577,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater rose show a mixed picture across European countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Jan 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FHN2x/1/" width="730" height="577" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Once again, it&#8217;s a mixed picture for European countries reporting Covid levels in wastewater. While Covid levels in wastewater rose in Germany and Sweden, activity varied quite considerably, with Austria and France experiencing relatively low levels. </p><p>As of week ending December 27, 2025, Covid activity in the USA is on the rise, though the situation varies across different parts of the country. </p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering test positivity, wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, and the hospital admission rate in the USA. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ffxYh/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/20515a12-d45c-454a-b1d4-616bd7fcfdbd_1220x920.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/04c570e6-1bb0-4a2f-8801-90c19d0e44a4_1220x1348.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:672,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, national COVID indicators in the USA painted a mixed picture, with wastewater levels and emergency department visits rising to moderate levels, while other measures remained low.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Dec 27, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ffxYh/1/" width="730" height="672" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The panel chart shows that Covid levels in wastewater and emergency department visits have risen to moderate levels, whereas test positivity and hospital admissions remain relatively low.</p><p>Wastewater analysis shows that Covid levels are highest in the Northeast and Mid West states, while staying relatively low in the South and West regions, as illustrated in the map below. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kmmrB/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/585fa3ad-f45c-4994-9651-ccd3cac08d1c_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bfc1e550-1db8-47e0-97db-ddc7e2ca18d4_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels in wastewater have risen across many states, with several experiencing high activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Dec 27, 2025. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kmmrB/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It displays data for states across the country for the week ending Dec 27, 2025.</p><p>The next chart shows the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by Covid and Flu. It indicates that while activity for Covid is moderate, Flu activity has increased significantly and is at a high level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hIuYv/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bec9abbc-6fa2-4f38-a378-24674e48e1c0_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3e00cba8-b92a-4f10-a439-36958e091357_1220x1024.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA rose for  Covid and increased significantly for Flu.&nbsp;&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Dec 27, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hIuYv/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Flu activity levels differ across states, as shown on the following interactive map, with cases on the rise in 39 states, including 23 experiencing high or very high levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A9iHn/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/eb305ece-7b52-4607-9f92-c1a1540a6aa1_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5f4fec28-8c8c-4cf6-b504-6bdb51e91b69_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Flu levels in wastewater are rising across most states, with several experiencing very high activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Influenza A by State for week ending Dec 27, 2025. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A9iHn/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada, up to December 20, 2025, shows that Covid wastewater levels remain steady at moderate levels, while flu activity is rising fast.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UQXJr/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6bab1b70-cf07-4938-9f0f-456675190068_1220x508.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f3366264-c5ef-4a1d-8dd2-87b1bea832b0_1220x736.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:362,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, while Flu levels are rising fast.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid and Flu A levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Dec 20, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UQXJr/1/" width="730" height="362" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Autumn 2025 Covid Booster campaign.</h3><p>The NHS Autumn Covid booster campaign started on October 1, 2025. This year&#8217;s Autumn vaccination campaign is set to end earlier in England than in previous years, with the majority of vaccinations scheduled to be completed by the end of November. However, outreach efforts to administer vaccines in underserved communities will continue after this date.</p><p>The next chart in this section compares the latest Covid vaccination coverage by Home Nation for the two main eligible groups. It shows that coverage is much lower for immunosuppressed individuals compared to those aged 75 and older.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ypXOI/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b1d9efec-95ed-4b0e-b3fc-cc13967a5bb4_1220x608.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/01fdb21d-81f1-4bb8-b2f8-025187af076f_1220x854.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:429,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage is noticeably lower among immunosuppressed individuals.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage for each eligible cohort by Home Nation: Up to Jan 4, 2026 for all nations, except for Wales which is up to Jan 1, 2026.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ypXOI/1/" width="730" height="429" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, NHS England shared more details about the Autumn 2025 Covid booster campaign, pointing out the uneven coverage across the country as the campaign nears its end. The following chart illustrates the regional difference in coverage for the two main eligible groups.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fmLSe/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5d49f120-f54b-4179-ab02-8353b32c75d0_1220x658.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/434aae30-0efd-4c5e-a542-d52719a75658_1220x916.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:464,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 booster coverage remains lowest in London for over 75 year olds and eligible immunosuppressed individuals.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage for each eligible cohort by region in England: Dec 31, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fmLSe/1/" width="730" height="464" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows a clear regional difference with London having the lowest coverage for both eligible groups. This is consistent with the pattern seen in previous campaigns.</p><p>The final chart in this section shows the inequality in coverage by deprivation level and ethnicity.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Jiu6V/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bbf9473e-f757-4e47-a107-4c5fa5d998cb_1220x880.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/addaf455-80b8-455a-90b5-cd016a3e85f3_1220x1088.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:552,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage remains lowest in the most deprived areas and for ethnic minorities.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid vaccination coverage for all eligible individuals in England by deprivation quintile and ethnic group England: Dec 31, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Jiu6V/1/" width="730" height="552" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Just like in previous campaigns, people in the most deprived areas are far less likely to be vaccinated compared to those in the least deprived areas. Likewise, vaccination rates continue to be much lower among individuals from ethnic minority groups.</p><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. Flu activity had fallen from its recent peak although is still at moderate levels.</p><p>Covid activity in Europe is showing a mixed picture with some countries increasing, particularly in Germany. In the USA, Covid activity levels is now moderate with a few states showing high levels.  Flu activity in both the USA and Canada has increased significantly over the past few weeks.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: December 24, 2025]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-december-24</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-december-24</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 24 Dec 2025 16:53:30 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/35432592-00ce-4839-b24c-f06a362fdb72_652x435.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><blockquote><p><strong>Wishing all readers a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.</strong></p><p><strong>This is the last report of the year as we head into the holiday break. The next Situation Report will be out on January 8, 2026 when regular service resumes.</strong></p></blockquote><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, and Wales. The report also presents the data on Covid and Flu levels in the USA.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, and Wales stayed low, indicating a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu activity fell across all home nations, indicating this years winter Flu season has peaked. However, Flu is still circulating at medium levels so take care over the holiday period.</strong></p><p>In England, the Covid test positivity rate stayed steady this week, well within the baseline activity level. The main hospital indicators also remained unchanged, indicating a low level of risk. Flu activity fell this week, with declines in both hospital admissions and test positivity rates, though levels remain at a medium activity level.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators of Covid activity remained at low levels of activity this week. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu have continued to fall but remain at medium levels of activity.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales fell slightly and remain at low levels of activity.  Hospital admissions for Flu also fell but remain at medium activity levels.</p><p>All indicators show that Covid activity in the USA is low although some states are seeing increased activity.  Flu indicators continue to increase and are at moderate levels.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.  Taking these precautions also reduces the risk of passing on Flu or RSV.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section begins with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v5inQ/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fb9ce97c-d6fc-4421-9630-5a4ecbd2aa51_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fa7bd130-5ae3-4685-8a33-d36596b531b5_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate continued to fall and remains well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Dec 21, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v5inQ/2/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows that the test positivity rate has dropped to its <strong>lowest point in three years</strong> and is now well below the baseline level of activity, indicating a low risk level. Positivity rates fell across all regions, showing only small differences between them. </p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/euhlx/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/754e5652-e258-44f9-b68e-bd7d4e518ce0_1220x892.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5cd856c7-cf70-4e9d-99d2-2721841b65b3_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained at low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Dec 21, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/euhlx/2/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained stable this week and overall activity is at historically low levels. </p><p>The final chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are historically low, while Flu admissions are falling but remains at medium activity levels. RSV admissions have started to rise again but remain at moderate levels. However, both are now much higher than Covid, indicating that Flu and RSV currently pose a greater risk.  If you&#8217;re experiencing Covid-like symptoms, there&#8217;s a good chance it is Flu or RSV.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/unOxY/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e6325616-adbd-4825-bed4-869ebc14c7c6_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a6d99fc1-043b-4ec8-a72a-67a7a4b8e320_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week in England, Covid&nbsp;hospital admission rates stayed low, while&nbsp;Flu&nbsp;admissions continued to fall.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Dec 21, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/unOxY/2/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>With the Flu season continuing, it&#8217;s a good idea to check your eligibility and book a free vaccination through the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in England&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/"><span>Flu vaccinations in England</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-24-december-2025/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for weekly Covid test positivity shown in red, Covid levels in wastewater in blue,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qgi1X/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b7de7bfc-f51d-48b7-8654-e81572de1df7_1220x938.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8f53d97d-b46d-4bf0-ba20-c13998ae470e_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland stayed at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Dec 21, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qgi1X/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid indicators in Scotland stayed stable and low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. While Flu positivity rates have started to fall they remain moderately high and much higher than for Covid. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4XvNp/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/792d3268-4803-437b-9f1e-60e96610cd9b_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b73c4ec4-3ec9-4ad4-85bd-d94eb6a0e4f8_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid test positivity in Scotland remained low this week, while Flu positivity continues to fall.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Dec 21, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4XvNp/2/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Flu activity in Scotland has dropped again across most measures, holding at a medium level overall based on lab-confirmed cases. Reported cases fell by 35% to 1,297 from 1,994, though activity stayed high in the 1-4 and 5-14 age groups. This week saw 678 Flu-related hospital admissions, down from 950 last week. There&#8217;s no sign of more severe illness based on deaths or excess mortality, though reporting delays remain.</p><p>With the Flu season still underway in Scotland, now is the time to check if you're eligible for a free Flu vaccination <strong><a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/population-health/health-protection/immunisation-vaccine-and-preventable-disease/seasonal-immunisations/flu-immunisations/adult-flu-immunisations/overview/">here</a></strong>. If you haven't been contacted yet, you can book your vaccination using the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Scotland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu"><span>Flu vaccinations in Scotland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Dec 21, 2025.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9yJ5N/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/86e07954-0a8f-4887-9b84-23d11216383f_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fe86c18d-24e4-4881-a1f3-53942e1a621b_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid and Flu continued to fall, while RSV stayed steady.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Dec 21, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9yJ5N/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have remained broadly stable for the past few weeks and are at low levels. Flu and RSV admissions fell slightly, but remain at moderate levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that while flu admissions have fallen slightly, it is still circulating at medium intensity.  Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is currently circulating in the community, with confirmed cases in children under 5 years old at high levels, although the incidence decreased in the most recent week.</p><p>Free Flu vaccinations are available for individuals aged 65 and older, certain young children, pregnant women, and those with specific medical conditions. With the Flu season continuing, it&#8217;s a good idea to check your eligibility and book a vaccination through the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Wales&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How"><span>Flu vaccinations in Wales</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in USA.</h3><p>This section reviews the latest data on Covid levels in the USA, showing that levels mostly remain low across the country. However, some states are starting to see signs of increasing activity.</p><p>The following chart shows the weekly trend up to December 13 for key national Covid indicators, including test positivity, wastewater activity levels, the percentage of emergency department visits related to Covid, and the hospital admission rate.</p><p>Whilst there has been a slight increase across all indicators, Covid activity remains relatively low nationally.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dsM8Q/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fb7eb9eb-cca7-4257-a811-8746f8a7b040_1220x912.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f367dd6d-97bc-4365-a2b5-6764a770d617_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, most national Covid indicators in the USA increased slightly but remain at relatively low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Dec 13, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dsM8Q/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The next chart shows the regional wastewater activity trends for Covid, highlighting that levels are climbing the fastest in the Northeast and Mid West regions.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ipSnP/3/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a2dfaf18-ef81-40e6-81af-af7b4239565a_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9eec1a5f-f5e2-42a6-82e5-d835e9403a94_1220x1050.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:521,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;While wastewater sampling indicates Covid levels remain fairly low in most areas, there has been an increase in the Northeast and Mid West.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly trend of wastewater viral activity levels of Covid in the USA: Jan 6, 2024 to Dec 13, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ipSnP/3/" width="730" height="521" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Wastewater analysis reveals that although Covid levels remain low or very low in most US states, many are starting to see increases, as shown in the map below. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n9KmZ/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/282bd09c-3ab6-4446-bb80-842f737cd3e1_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b8973183-7fc3-4715-8b37-78788f67f188_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Although Covid levels detected in wastewater remain low or very low in most states, many are seeing an increase.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Dec 13, 2025. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n9KmZ/1/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It displays data for states across the country for the week ending Dec 13, 2025.</p><p>The interactive map shows wastewater activity levels increased in 24 states last week, down from 40 the week before, while 34 states remained at low or very low activity levels, down from 38 the previous week.</p><p>The final chart for the USA shows the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by the main respiratory illnesses&#8212;Covid and Flu. It indicates that activity levels for these viruses are currently low, though Flu cases are continuing to increase.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JDc8F/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6fe7e301-b2c1-47e5-bfd8-8c5dff122868_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fc656c04-518c-428b-bdda-3d59e2c3dba5_1220x1024.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA stayed low for  Covid but continued to rise for Flu.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Dec 13, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JDc8F/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. The recent rise in Flu activity has peaked but is still at medium levels of activity.</p><p>In the USA, Covid activity levels remain low although some states are seeing increased activity. Flu activity have increased indicating that the Winter Flu season has started</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: December 18, 2025]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-december-18</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-december-18</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2025 17:00:06 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/43cdf6be-825c-446f-984e-a16c45389e74_720x405.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><blockquote><p><strong>This is the last full report of the year, as there will be limited data over the Christmas period; however, I plan to publish a shortened report on Wednesday, December 24, covering the available information.</strong></p></blockquote><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. Finally, there is an update latest status on the Autumn 2025 Covid Booster campaign.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland stayed low, indicating a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu and RSV activity remained broadly stable but at medium levels for all home nations, indicating this years winter Flu season may have peaked.</strong></p><p><strong>Public Heath Scotland <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-11-december-2025/">report </a>that early seasonal Flu vaccine effectiveness data shows the vaccine is providing good protection against the currently circulating variant. The data shows a 78% reduced risk of hospitalisation in ages 2&#8211;17 and 37% in those 65 and over. Similar results were observed in pooled estimates from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, and with early estimates from England.</strong></p><p>In England, the Covid test positivity rate stayed steady this week, well within the baseline activity level. The main hospital indicators also remained unchanged, indicating a low level of risk. Flu activity has stopped increasing, with both hospital admissions stable and test positivity rates starting to fall. Hospital admissions remain highest among people over 85 years old with Flu and children under 5 years with RSV.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators of Covid activity remained at low levels of activity this week. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu have started to fall and are now at medium levels of activity.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales fell slightly and remain at low levels of activity.  Hospital admissions for Flu also fell but remain at medium activity levels.</p><p>In  Northern Ireland, Covid activity remained stable across all surveillance indicators in the past week and are at low levels. Flu and RSV activity levels have stabilised and are likely to have peaked.</p><p>This week is again a mixed picture for European countries reporting Covid levels in wastewater. Levels increased across all countries, though activity levels varied considerable between countries.</p><p>CDC data have resumed publishing data this week and all indicators show that Covid activity in the USA is low although some states are seeing increased activity.  Flu indicators are increasing albeit from low levels.</p><p>The NHS Autumn Covid booster campaign started on October 1, 2025 with the aim of completing most vaccinations by the end of November 2025. While there&#8217;s been reasonably good progress for those aged 75 and older, immunosuppressed individuals still have much lower coverage.</p><p>Free vaccinations in the Autumn 2025 booster campaign will be available for adults aged 75 and older by January 31, 2026; residents in care homes for older adults; and immunosuppressed individuals aged 6 months and above.</p><p>People registered with a GP surgery in England can check their eligibility and book a vaccination appointment through this link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Book a Covid Booster&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/"><span>Book a Covid Booster</span></a></p><p>Details of booking a free NHS Covid vaccination in Scotland can be found <strong><a href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/healthy-living/immunisation/winter-vaccines/">here</a></strong>, for Wales <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/">here</a></strong>, and in Northern Ireland <strong><a href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/covid-19-vaccine">here</a></strong>.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section begins with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SNyAh/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a413e332-5018-47fa-9507-2c0b33f9fb1e_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c92c3d0e-002c-42ca-a766-273db9ff1c26_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate remained well below the baseline threshold for activity.&nbsp;&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Dec 14, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SNyAh/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart indicates that the test positivity rate was again stable this week and is well below the baseline level of activity, indicating a low level of risk. Positivity rates decreased across all regions, showing only small differences between them. </p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2nf6f/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bcca5866-17de-45ce-a926-cb3cb061a33a_1220x892.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5eb61da1-ccdd-47f5-bfcf-84aca860340e_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England stayed at low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Dec 14, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2nf6f/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained stable this week and overall activity is at historically low levels. </p><p>The final chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are historically low, while Flu and RSV admissions appear to have peaked at medium activity levels. However, both are now much higher than Covid, indicating that Flu and RSV currently pose a greater risk.  If you&#8217;re experiencing Covid-like symptoms, there&#8217;s a good chance it is Flu or RSV.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gkfYS/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9d17f8c1-617a-4eba-beed-f4c9ce32fd1d_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0fe9a60b-c2bd-413d-8091-6558083b7cfc_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week in England, Covid&nbsp;hospital admission rates stayed low, while&nbsp;Flu&nbsp;and RSV&nbsp;admissions remained stable.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Dec 14, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gkfYS/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The last chart in this section shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 people by age group for Covid, Flu, and RSV for the week ending December 14, 2025.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kBarK/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dde2aa5b-6d68-4501-b0ad-ed03a0bc5140_1220x676.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/57a49675-2202-47c1-9cb5-43b501ee5216_1220x884.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:446,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions remain highest among people over 85 years old with Flu  and children under 5 years with RSV.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory illnesses by age for England: Week ending Dec 14, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kBarK/1/" width="730" height="446" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart clearly shows that the risk of hospitalisation remains highest among the very youngest age group and the elderly for both Flu and RSV. While current hospital admissions for Covid are lower, the elderly remain more likely to be hospitalised.</p><p>With the Flu season underway, it&#8217;s a good idea to check your eligibility and book a free vaccination through the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in England&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/"><span>Flu vaccinations in England</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-18-december-2025/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for weekly Covid test positivity shown in red, Covid levels in wastewater in blue,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fVKsS/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e3214f03-11eb-4caa-bddd-99e79426ae76_1220x938.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/75bfb78b-29f3-4464-afe5-59aca34f7b8e_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland remained at low levels.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Dec 14, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fVKsS/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid indicators in Scotland stayed stable and low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. While Flu positivity rates have started to fall they remain much higher than for Covid. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2Rn6Q/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1b836e8f-a6ae-4f7d-afdf-8d9b68747199_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/eab58792-e00a-45dd-a48f-d18b7716daee_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid test positivity in Scotland remained low this week, while Flu positivity has started to fall.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Dec 14, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2Rn6Q/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Flu activity in Scotland has steadied or decreased across most measure, returning to medium activity overall based on reporting of laboratory-confirmed cases. Cases decreased by 20% to 1918 from 2410, and activity level dropped to high (from very high) in the 1-4 and 5-14 age groups. There were 912 hospital admissions due to Flu this week, down from 1039 in the previous week. There are no indications of more severe disease as measured by deaths or excess mortality, although there are reporting lags. Influenza A(H3N2) continues to dominate.</p><p>With the Flu season well underway in Scotland, now is the time to check if you're eligible for a free Flu vaccination <strong><a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/population-health/health-protection/immunisation-vaccine-and-preventable-disease/seasonal-immunisations/flu-immunisations/adult-flu-immunisations/overview/">here</a></strong>. If you haven't been contacted yet, you can book your vaccination using the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Scotland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu"><span>Flu vaccinations in Scotland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Dec 14, 2025.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/p9gBO/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7c262bfb-2d39-4456-92ac-172e7ab9420e_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/34b55bd8-8de8-461d-b7ea-76d9d3e24dfa_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid,&nbsp;Flu, and  RSV  all fell slightly last week.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Dec 14, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/p9gBO/2/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions have remained broadly stable for the past few weeks and are at low levels. Flu and RSV admissions fell slightly, but remain at moderate levels.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>shows that while flu admissions have fallen slightly, it is still circulating at medium intensity, with increases in test positivity and confirmed cases.  Presentations of acute respiratory infections to GPs increased in most age groups.  Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is currently circulating, with confirmed cases in children under 5 years old at very high levels, although the incidence decreased in the most recent week.</p><p>Free Flu vaccinations are available for individuals aged 65 and older, certain young children, pregnant women, and those with specific medical conditions. With the Flu season in full swing, it&#8217;s a good idea to check your eligibility and book a vaccination through the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Wales&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How"><span>Flu vaccinations in Wales</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity activity has remained stable and at low levels across all surveillance indicators. Meanwhile, Flu activity has decreased across the majority of surveillance indicators although rates are highest in young children. RSV activity has decreased across some surveillance indicators and is circulating at moderately low levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1J5H!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F592ca998-dc73-46c6-8743-502107998f50_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1J5H!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F592ca998-dc73-46c6-8743-502107998f50_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1J5H!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F592ca998-dc73-46c6-8743-502107998f50_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1J5H!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F592ca998-dc73-46c6-8743-502107998f50_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1J5H!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F592ca998-dc73-46c6-8743-502107998f50_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1J5H!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F592ca998-dc73-46c6-8743-502107998f50_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1J5H!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F592ca998-dc73-46c6-8743-502107998f50_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1J5H!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F592ca998-dc73-46c6-8743-502107998f50_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1J5H!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F592ca998-dc73-46c6-8743-502107998f50_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1J5H!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F592ca998-dc73-46c6-8743-502107998f50_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, has stayed about the same this week at 1.8%, compared to 1.7% last week, indicating a low level of Covid activity.</p><p>Flu test positivity, shown in green, has stopped suggesting that this wave has peaked. This week, Flu positivity reached 29.3%, down from 33.4% in the prior week. The highest rate remains in the 5&#8211;14 age group, with 48.4% testing positive.</p><p>Information about who qualifies for free flu vaccinations and how to schedule an appointment can be found at the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine"><span>Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. While Covid levels have increased in several countries across these regions, they generally remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows the latest levels of Covid as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n6tIg/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/32fcb92a-0d9b-48d6-bce2-d75cd7736a36_1220x892.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0f704c58-3c81-45eb-be31-9bb1e99b7b8f_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:585,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater rose across all European countries, though activity levels varied between countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Dec 11, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n6tIg/1/" width="730" height="585" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Once again, it&#8217;s a mixed picture for European countries reporting Covid levels in wastewater. While Covid levels in wastewater rose across all countries, activity varied quite considerably, with Denmark seeing moderately high levels and France experiencing relatively low levels. The situation in Austria is presently uncertain due to recent changes in their reporting methods is making the data difficult to interpret.</p><p>The CDC has resumed publishing U.S. health metrics after the government shutdown, and the latest data shows Covid activity remains low nationwide.  However, some areas are showing signs of increasing activity.</p><p>The following chart presents the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering test positivity, wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, and the hospital admission rate.  Whilst there has been a slight increase across all indicators, Covid activity remains relatively low nationally.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Srm2y/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3d2e8d65-0145-4cd4-8524-7fc96997f7a2_1220x912.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/76462fd6-e90f-4408-bcdf-ce6561433b5e_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, most national Covid indicators in the USA increased slightly but remain at relatively low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Dec 6, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Srm2y/2/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This chart shows the regional wastewater activity trends for Covid, highlighting that levels are climbing the fastest in the Northeast.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fxmhS/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dff70d6a-8bfc-46f2-b763-b1065d80a5a0_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/10e8654f-1ffc-4888-8160-b76b0dace577_1220x1050.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:521,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;While wastewater sampling indicates Covid levels remain fairly low in most areas, there has been a clear increase in the Northeast.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly trend of wastewater viral activity levels of Covid in the USA: Jan 6, 2024 to Dec 6, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fxmhS/2/" width="730" height="521" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Wastewater analysis reveals that although Covid levels remain low or very low in most US states, many are starting to see increases, as shown in the map below. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jxqP5/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7ce35ce4-8ae6-4223-a730-93d37b6b0a05_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/24ed27e7-a82a-47bd-a8c7-2438bdfbaa7a_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Although Covid levels detected in wastewater remain low or very low in most states, many are seeing an increase.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Dec 6, 2025. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jxqP5/2/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It displays data for states across the country for the week ending Dec c, 2025.</p><p>The interactive map shows wastewater activity levels increased in 40 states last week, up from 21 the week before, while 33 states remained at low or very low activity levels, down from 44 the previous week.</p><p>The final chart for the USA shows the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by the main respiratory illnesses&#8212;Covid and Flu. It indicates that activity levels for these viruses are currently low, though Flu cases are continuing to increase.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CmGGV/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/eaa2f8c1-8bf2-4a02-95ea-40b4769f599d_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/66a4a8fa-2a2e-4ee8-9647-cf9f9347b233_1220x1024.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA stayed low for  Covid but continued to rise for Flu.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Dec 6, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CmGGV/2/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada shows that Covid wastewater levels are steady at moderate levels, while flu levels are rising fast.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hiaM8/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9f077f1f-2e34-4c05-9e49-dd50f670d7ce_1220x504.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f590fe97-c7ca-4109-bc6f-1e018aed44eb_1220x736.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:362,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, while Flu levels are rising fast.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid and Flu A levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Dec 6, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hiaM8/2/" width="730" height="362" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Autumn 2025 Covid Booster campaign.</h3><p>The NHS Autumn Covid booster campaign started on October 1, 2025. This year&#8217;s Autumn vaccination campaign is set to end earlier in England than in previous years, with the majority of vaccinations scheduled to be completed by the end of November. However, outreach efforts to administer vaccines in underserved communities will continue after this date.</p><p>The following chart shows the number of Covid vaccinations given by week for each of the booster campaigns in England.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XnVtJ/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d04361c4-d786-4306-bd45-3aa456d7b76a_1220x796.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a0ac78b8-aa78-4181-8170-c55117df68e0_1220x1070.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:527,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;To date, 4.6 million Covid vaccinations have been given in England as part of the 2025 Autumn booster campaign.&nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of doses per week by vaccination campaign in England: Week ending Mar 7, 2022 - Dec 14, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XnVtJ/2/" width="730" height="527" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>In the week ending December 14, there were 48,117 booster doses administered, down from 62,492 the previous week, bringing the total to 4.61 million doses as the campaign comes to a close. </p><p>The next chart in this section compares the latest Covid vaccination coverage by Home Nation for the two main eligible groups. It shows that coverage is much lower for immunosuppressed individuals compared to those aged 75 and older.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MqDXr/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/870f38fc-1436-4c53-85f3-68bc3f0c14dd_1220x608.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ff028a26-6dff-49a5-918e-fd8c3e4dc965_1220x866.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:437,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage is noticeably lower among immunosuppressed individuals, especially in England.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage for each eligible cohort by Home Nation: Up to Dec 14, 2025 for all nations apart from Wales which is up to Dec 11, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MqDXr/1/" width="730" height="437" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. The recent rise in Flu activity appears to have peaked at moderate levels.</p><p>Covid activity in Europe is showing some early signs of increasing, particularly in Germany. In the USA, activity levels remain low although some states are seeing increased activity.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: December 11, 2025]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-december-11</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-december-11</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 11 Dec 2025 17:24:48 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8f865736-64e3-4137-acfe-372225afe142_759x622.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. Finally, there is an update latest status on the Autumn 2025 Covid Booster campaign including data on inequalities in coverage in England.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland stayed low this week, indicating a low level of risk, though there are some early signs of increased activity in Wales and Northern Ireland.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu and RSV activity continues to increase significantly across all home nations, indicating this years winter Flu season is well underway. If you haven&#8217;t had your Flu vaccination yet, there&#8217;s still time to do so.</strong></p><p><strong>Public Heath Scotland <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-11-december-2025/">report </a>that early seasonal Flu vaccine effectiveness data shows the vaccine is providing good protection against the currently circulating variant. The data shows a 78% reduced risk of hospitalisation in ages 2&#8211;17 and 37% in those 65 and over. Similar results were observed in pooled estimates from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, and with early estimates from England.</strong></p><p>In England, the Covid test positivity rate stayed steady this week, well within the baseline activity level. The main hospital indicators also remained mostly unchanged, suggesting a low level of risk. However, flu activity is on the rise, with both hospital admissions and test positivity rates climbing quickly. Hospital admissions are highest among people over 85 years old with Flu and children under 5 years with RSV.</p><p>In Scotland, all indicators of Covid activity remained at low levels of activity this week. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu continued to rise and are now at high levels of activity.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales increased slightly while remaining at low levels of activity.  Hospital admissions for Flu increased and are approaching medium activity levels.</p><p>In  Northern Ireland, Covid activity increased slightly across some surveillance indicators in the past week but are still at low levels. However, Flu and RSV activity levels are rising fast.</p><p>This week is again a mixed picture for European countries reporting Covid levels in wastewater. Activity is clearly on the rise in Germany, with some indications of increases in other countries as well, though starting from relatively low levels.</p><p>CDC data have resumed publishing data this week and all indicators show that Covid activity in the USA is low.  Flu indicators are also low although there are signs of increasing activity.</p><p>The NHS Autumn Covid booster campaign started on October 1, 2025 with the aim of completing most vaccinations by the end of November 2025. Scotland is doing well so far, with 66% of people aged 75 and over already vaccinated, though coverage among the immunosuppressed remains much lower at 40%.  </p><p>Free vaccinations in the Autumn 2025 booster campaign will be available for adults aged 75 and older by January 31, 2026; residents in care homes for older adults; and immunosuppressed individuals aged 6 months and above.</p><p>People registered with a GP surgery in England can check their eligibility and book a vaccination appointment through this link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Book a Covid Booster&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/"><span>Book a Covid Booster</span></a></p><p>Details of booking a free NHS Covid vaccination in Scotland can be found <strong><a href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/healthy-living/immunisation/winter-vaccines/">here</a></strong>, for Wales <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/">here</a></strong>, and in Northern Ireland <strong><a href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/covid-19-vaccine">here</a></strong>.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section begins with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/prem9/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/prem9/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/prem9/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate stayed well below the baseline threshold for activity.&amp;nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Dec 7, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/prem9/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart indicates that the test positivity rate was again stable this week and is well below the baseline level of activity, indicating a low level of risk. Positivity rates decreased across all regions, showing only small differences between them. </p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xdyRA/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/xdyRA/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/xdyRA/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Dec 7, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xdyRA/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained stable this week and overall activity is at historically low levels. </p><p>The final chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are historically low, while Flu and RSV admissions have risen significantly. Both are now much higher than Covid, indicating that Flu and RSV currently pose a greater risk.  If you&#8217;re experiencing Covid-like symptoms, there&#8217;s a good chance it is Flu or RSV.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kUcDG/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/kUcDG/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/kUcDG/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:541,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week in England, Covid&amp;nbsp;hospital admission rates stayed low,&amp;nbsp;Flu&amp;nbsp;admissions climbed quickly, and RSV&amp;nbsp;admissions held steady.&amp;nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Dec 7, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kUcDG/2/" width="730" height="541" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The last chart in this section shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 people by age group for Covid, Flu, and RSV for the week ending December 7, 2025.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zjQu0/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/zjQu0/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/zjQu0/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:446,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions are highest among people over 85 years old with Flu  and children under 5 years with RSV.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Hospital admissions per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory illnesses by age for England: Week ending Dec 7, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zjQu0/1/" width="730" height="446" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart clearly shows that the risk of hospitalisation is highest among the very youngest age group and the elderly for both Flu and RSV. While current hospital admissions for Covid are lower, the elderly remain more likely to be hospitalised.</p><p>With the Flu season underway, it&#8217;s a good idea to check your eligibility and book a free vaccination through the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in England&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/"><span>Flu vaccinations in England</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-11-december-2025/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for weekly Covid test positivity shown in red, Covid levels in wastewater in blue,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SeSME/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/SeSME/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/SeSME/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland stayed at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Dec 7, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SeSME/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid indicators in Scotland stayed stable and low this week, indicating the risk from the virus remains low.</p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/usJEj/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/usJEj/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/usJEj/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid&amp;nbsp;test positivity in Scotland remained low this week, while Flu positivity continues to rise fast.&amp;nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&amp;nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Dec 7, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/usJEj/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>While the Covid test positivity is low, Flu positivity rates continue to increase significantly and are much higher than for Covid. The current Flu positivity rate is also much higher than it was at the same time last year, showing that the winter Flu season has arrived earlier than usual and is in full swing. </p><p>Flu activity in Scotland rose at a more moderate pace this week, but has already hit the high activity threshold earlier than in past seasons. Cases went up 24% to 2,331 from 1,875, and hospital admissions climbed 15% to 986 from 860. However, both figures are increasing more slowly than last week. Fortunately, there&#8217;s no indication so far that this year&#8217;s flu is a more severe illness, based on intensive care admissions.</p><p>With the Flu season well underway in Scotland, now is the time to check if you're eligible for a free Flu vaccination <strong><a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/population-health/health-protection/immunisation-vaccine-and-preventable-disease/seasonal-immunisations/flu-immunisations/adult-flu-immunisations/overview/">here</a></strong>. If you haven't been contacted yet, you can book your vaccination using the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Scotland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu"><span>Flu vaccinations in Scotland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Dec 7, 2025.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PEzbd/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/PEzbd/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/PEzbd/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid have increased slightly, while admissions for Flu and  RSV  are climbing fast.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Dec 7, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PEzbd/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions remained stable this week and are at low levels. However Flu and RSV activity levels are rising fast.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>confirms that Flu is approaching medium intensity levels, with increases in test positivity and confirmed cases.  Cases of acute respiratory infections seen by GPs have also gone up across most age groups. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is currently spreading, with confirmed cases in children under 5 years old at very high levels.</p><p>Free Flu vaccinations are available for individuals aged 65 and older, certain young children, pregnant women, and those with specific medical conditions. With the Flu season in full swing, it&#8217;s a good idea to check your eligibility and book a vaccination through the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Wales&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How"><span>Flu vaccinations in Wales</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity continues to remain low across most surveillance indicators but there are some signs of increasing activity. Meanwhile, Flu activity continues to rise across surveillance indicators, especially among children, and this increase is happening earlier than in previous influenza seasons. RSV activity increased across all surveillance indicators, particularly among younger children, but is still circulating at moderately low levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s4JN!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s4JN!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s4JN!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s4JN!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s4JN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s4JN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:423343,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/181323071?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s4JN!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s4JN!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s4JN!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s4JN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dbe58e9-f62f-40fd-ae46-be3fb14f2901_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, has stayed about the same this week at 1.7%, compared to 1.6% last week, suggesting a low level of Covid activity.</p><p>Flu test positivity, shown in green, keeps climbing which signals the Flu season is well underway. This week, Flu positivity reached 33.4%, up from 30.2% in the prior week. The highest rate was in the 5&#8211;14 age group, with 57% testing positive.</p><p>Information about who qualifies for free flu vaccinations and how to schedule an appointment can be found at the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine"><span>Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. While Covid levels have increased in several countries across these regions, they generally remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows the latest levels of Covid as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7Q1f1/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/7Q1f1/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/7Q1f1/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:558,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in wastewater in most European countries increased to some degree.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Dec 4, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7Q1f1/1/" width="730" height="558" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Once again, it&#8217;s a mixed picture for European countries reporting Covid levels in wastewater. Activity is clearly on the rise in Germany, with some early indications of increases in the Netherlands, Denmark, and France. The situation in Austria is presently uncertain due to recent changes in their reporting methods and there was no update for Sweden this week.</p><p>The CDC has now updated U.S. health metrics after the government shutdown confirming that Covid activity has fallen and is at a low level.</p><p>The following chart presents the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering test positivity, wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, and the hospital admission rate, up to November 29, 2025.  It shows low levels of Covid activity continue at the national level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RXXvx/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/RXXvx/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/RXXvx/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all national Covid indicators in the USA remained at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Nov 29, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RXXvx/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Wastewater analysis also shows that Covid levels are low or very low across most US States, as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching. </p><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It displays data for states across the country for the week ending November 29, 2025.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aLymk/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/aLymk/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/aLymk/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:638,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;While Covid levels measured by wastewater remain low or very low in most states, some states are reporting higher levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Nov 29, 2025. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aLymk/1/" width="730" height="638" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map shows wastewater activity levels increased in 19 states last week, down from 23 the week before, while 44 states remained at low or very low activity levels, unchanged from the previous week. Note that some states have limited coverage this week, such as Arizona, so it&#8217;s a good idea to check a state&#8217;s coverage by hovering your cursor over a state on the map.</p><p>The final chart for the USA shows the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by the main respiratory illnesses&#8212;Covid and Flu. It indicates that activity levels for these viruses are currently low, though Flu cases are starting to increase.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BoPd7/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/BoPd7/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/BoPd7/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA stayed low for  Covid but continued to rise for Flu.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Nov 29, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BoPd7/2/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada shows that Covid wastewater levels are steady at moderate levels, while flu levels are starting to rise albeit from low levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9mMOk/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/345a533a-e3f4-4159-8937-6a740181c10d_1220x474.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/92fda6ad-c400-42e9-89df-fac1316f52ea_1220x756.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:374,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, while Flu levels are starting to increase.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid and Flu A levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9mMOk/1/" width="730" height="374" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Autumn 2025 Covid Booster campaign.</h3><p>The NHS Autumn Covid booster campaign started on October 1, 2025. This year&#8217;s Autumn vaccination campaign is set to end earlier in England than in previous years, with the majority of vaccinations scheduled to be completed by the end of November. However, outreach efforts to administer vaccines in underserved communities will continue after this date.</p><p>The following chart shows the number of Covid vaccinations given by week for each of the booster campaigns in England.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rnT1u/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/rnT1u/plain.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://img.datawrapper.de/rnT1u/full.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:527,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;To date, 4.6 million Covid vaccinations have been given in England as part of the 2025 Autumn booster campaign.&amp;nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of doses per week by vaccination campaign in England: Week ending Mar 7, 2022 - Dec 7, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rnT1u/1/" width="730" height="527" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>In the week ending December 7, there were 61,178 booster doses were administered, down from 88,129 the previous week, bringing the total to 4.56 million doses as the campaign comes to a close. </p><p>The next chart in this section provides the latest Covid vaccination coverage by Home Nation for the two main eligible groups.  The chart indicates that while England and Scotland are making solid progress, Wales and Northern Ireland are progressing more slowly.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/S6Q9n/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/66cdc074-02ce-4884-a8ea-fae750e64072_1220x608.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8adfaa4f-8837-407b-b6a1-52c3a126fc08_1220x816.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:410,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The Autumn 2025 booster campaign is going well, although progress in Wales and Northern Ireland has been slower.&amp;nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage for each eligible cohort by Home Nation: Up to Nov 30, 2025 for all nations apart from Wales which is up to Nov 27, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/S6Q9n/1/" width="730" height="410" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. However Flu activity continues to rise in all home nations indicating an early start to the Winter Flu season.</p><p>Covid activity in Europe is showing some early signs of increasing, particularly in Germany. In the USA, activity levels remain low.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Covid Situation Report: December 4, 2025]]></title><description><![CDATA[Report providing the latest information on Covid activity in the UK and other countries. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.]]></description><link>https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-december-4</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/covid-situation-report-december-4</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Hawkins]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2025 19:49:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9a41e544-42cf-4975-af2e-5fe69abf15b9_1024x655.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Introduction.</strong></h3><p>This report belongs to a weekly series summarising the Covid situation across the UK's home nations and other countries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week's report covers the latest weekly indicators of respiratory illness activity for England, along with the most recent data for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The report also presents the data on Covid levels in selected countries in Europe and North America. Finally, there is an update latest status on the Autumn 2025 Covid Booster campaign including data on inequalities in coverage in England.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Summary.</strong></h3><p><strong>Once again, the main Covid indicators in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland remained low this week indicating a low level of risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Flu and RSV activity continues to increase significantly across all home nations, signalling an early start to this years winter Flu season. If you haven&#8217;t had your Flu vaccination yet, now is a great time to get it.</strong></p><p>In England, the Covid test positivity rate remained stable this week and well within the baseline activity level. All of the main hospital indicators also were broadly unchanged this week indicating a low level of risk. Flu indicators showed increasing levels of activity, with  hospital admission and test positivity rates increasing fast. </p><p>In Scotland, all indicators of Covid activity fell this week and remain at low levels of activity. Positivity rates and hospital admissions for Flu continued to rise significantly.</p><p>In the past week, Covid hospital admissions in Wales remained stable at low levels of activity.  Hospital admissions for Flu increased and are at medium activity levels.</p><p>In  Northern Ireland, Covid activity increased slightly across all surveillance indicators in the past week but are still at low levels. However, Flu and RSV activity levels are rising fast.</p><p>Covid levels in wastewater samples across European countries sharing this data show a mixed picture. While most countries have dropped to low levels or remain steady at moderate activity, levels in Germany have continued to increase.</p><p>CDC data have resumed publishing data this week and all indicators show that Covid activity in the USA is low.  Flu indicators are also low although there are early signs of increasing activity.</p><p>The NHS Autumn Covid booster campaign started on October 1, 2025 with the aim of completing most vaccinations by the end of November 2025. England is doing well so far, with 61% of people aged 75 and over already vaccinated, though coverage among the immunosuppressed remains much lower at just 28%.  There are also significant differences in coverage between regions, ethnic groups, and more deprived areas.</p><p>Free vaccinations in the Autumn 2025 booster campaign will be available for adults aged 75 and older by January 31, 2026; residents in care homes for older adults; and immunosuppressed individuals aged 6 months and above.</p><p>People registered with a GP surgery in England can check their eligibility and book a vaccination appointment through this link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Book a Covid Booster&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-covid-19-vaccination/"><span>Book a Covid Booster</span></a></p><p>Details of booking a free NHS Covid vaccination in Scotland can be found <strong><a href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/healthy-living/immunisation/winter-vaccines/">here</a></strong>, for Wales <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/">here</a></strong>, and in Northern Ireland <strong><a href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/covid-19-vaccine">here</a></strong>.</p><p>As always, it&#8217;s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid increases significantly with age and for the clinically vulnerable. Therefore, it is important to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing <strong><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-symptoms-and-what-to-do/#:~:text=Symptoms%20of%20COVID%2D19&amp;text=a%20new%2C%20continuous%20cough%20%E2%80%93%20this,feeling%20tired%20or%20exhausted">Covid symptoms</a></strong> and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.</p><div><hr></div><h3>Status of main respiratory diseases in England.</h3><p>This section begins with the latest data on test positivity rates for Covid in England. It's important to note that positivity is different from prevalence, which reflects the overall percentage of Covid cases in the general population. Appendix 1 offers a more detailed explanation of the distinction.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rate for all Covid tests taken mapped against the UKHSA activity thresholds. The thresholds are based on the historical trend for Covid test positivity and, consequently, represent a relative risk. More details on this approach can be found in the <strong><a href="https://bhawkins3.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-covid-surveillance-metrics">Guide to Covid Surveillance Metrics</a></strong>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2MIc6/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c412f818-b792-475b-b8bf-69868d6f70a7_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d0538f6e-fbc3-4540-8c92-ce717626b76c_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:544,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the Covid test positivity rate remained well below the baseline threshold for activity.&amp;nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Daily test positivity rate for all Covid tests in England mapped on to activity thresholds developed using the Mean Standard Deviation Method approach: Nov 20, 2022 to Nov 30, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2MIc6/1/" width="730" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart indicates that the test positivity rate remained stable this week and is well below the baseline level of activity, indicating a low level of risk. Positivity rates decreased across all regions, showing only small differences between them. </p><p>The next chart highlights four key indicators of Covid in hospitals: weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UE0WR/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cf0bfcaf-353e-497a-99d6-27c73db2067a_1220x892.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0ec0b71f-5962-47cb-ae69-1128a4c9e849_1220x1162.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:575,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all hospital indicators for Covid in England remained at historically low levels.&amp;nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Emergency Department visits for Covid-like symptoms, test positivity rates among patients with respiratory issues, hospital admission rates, and admission rates for intensive care in England: Oct 15, 2023 to Nov 30, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UE0WR/1/" width="730" height="575" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>All key hospital indicators for Covid activity remained stable this week and overall activity is at historically low levels. </p><p>The final chart shows hospital admission rates per 100,000 for the three main respiratory viruses. Covid admissions are historically low, while Flu and RSV admissions have risen significantly. Both are now much higher than Covid, indicating that Flu and RSV currently pose a greater risk.  If you&#8217;re experiencing Covid-like symptoms, there&#8217;s a good chance it is Flu or RSV.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MfR6z/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9b9444d9-7b6c-46fb-9de6-acc543432f7a_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ba3cd7a7-5b13-4c6c-aee7-4d74bffd3b9d_1220x1012.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid&amp;nbsp;hospital admission rates in England remained low, while Flu and RSV admissions increased fast.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly hospital admission per 100,000 individuals for the main respiratory diseases in England from Nov 20, 2022 to Nov 30, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MfR6z/1/" width="730" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>With the Flu season underway, it&#8217;s a good idea to check your eligibility and book a free vaccination through the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in England&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/vaccination-and-booking-services/book-flu-vaccination/"><span>Flu vaccinations in England</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Scotland weekly hospital admissions and test positivity</h3><p>Public Health Scotland (PHS) continue to publish weekly data on Covid hospital admissions and test positivity as well as wastewater monitoring data. The latest Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report can be accessed<strong> <a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-4-december-2025/">here</a></strong>.</p><p>The following panel chart presents the most recent data for weekly Covid test positivity shown in red, Covid levels in wastewater in blue,  Covid hospital admissions depicted in orange, and beds occupied by Covid patients in brown.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yzj8w/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a7610337-efb8-4dfd-a9a0-3ee9d14c2674_1220x950.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/80876863-9ce0-4b45-8120-5aa2b19d7076_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:583,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all Covid activity indicators in Scotland remained at low levels.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Weekly Covid test positivity, levels in wastewater sampling, weekly hospital admissions, and beds occupied by Covid patients in Scotland: Jun 4, 2023 to Nov 30, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yzj8w/1/" width="730" height="583" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The main indicators of Covid in Scotland continued to fall this week indicating a decrease in Covid activity which are now at low levels. </p><p>The final chart in this section compares the test positivity rates for hospital patients with respiratory symptoms for Covid, Flu, and RSV. </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qEr13/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/250e014a-e7e5-4222-9d21-d41a35987ad2_1220x766.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/201ca673-8fe5-4e7a-90ed-ce076e300a75_1220x974.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:481,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Once again, the&amp;nbsp;Covid&amp;nbsp;test positivity in Scotland remained low this week, while Flu positivity continues to rise fast.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Test positivity rates among hospital patients with respiratory issues&amp;nbsp;in Scotland from Jun 4, 2023 to Nov 20, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qEr13/1/" width="730" height="481" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>While the Covid test positivity is low, Flu positivity rates are climbing very fast and are now much higher than for Covid. The current Flu positivity rate is also much higher than it was at the same time last year, showing that the winter Flu season has arrived earlier than usual and is already in full swing. </p><p>This is supported by laboratory-confirmed cases for Flu more than doubling, rising from 845 to 1,759, and hospital admissions increasing by 70%, from 426 to 724. Although the highest case rates were observed in younger age groups, approximately 40% of hospital admissions were people aged 65 years and over, broadly consistent with previous seasons. </p><p>With the Flu season well underway in Scotland, now is the time to check if you're eligible for a free Flu vaccination <strong><a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/population-health/health-protection/immunisation-vaccine-and-preventable-disease/seasonal-immunisations/flu-immunisations/adult-flu-immunisations/overview/">here</a></strong>. If you haven't been contacted yet, you can book your vaccination using the following link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Scotland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/flu"><span>Flu vaccinations in Scotland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Wales Covid hospital admissions.</h3><p>During the winter season, Public Health Wales publishes a weekly respiratory infection report, which is available <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">here</a></strong>.  The following chart provides the latest trend for weekly hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses in Wales up to week ending Nov 30, 2025.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Z3RPz/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9583f2f1-62cc-47ea-a0be-b540daefc69b_1220x768.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1716c9da-fea5-4060-ae4c-0129654b5309_1220x1014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:501,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Wales hospital admissions for Covid stayed low while admissions for Flu and RSV&amp;nbsp;are rising fast.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of hospital admissions for the main respiratory viruses per week in Wales: Jun 4, 2023 to Nov 30, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Z3RPz/1/" width="730" height="501" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Covid hospital admissions remained stable this week and are at low levels. However Flu and RSV activity levels are rising fast.</p><p>This weeks <strong><a href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/weekly-influenza-and-acute-respiratory-infection-report/">Weekly Acute Respiratory Infection Report </a></strong>confirms that Flu is circulating widely and activity increased last week, with substantial increases in test positivity, confirmed cases (in the community and in hospitals) and in admissions to hospital. Presentations of acute respiratory infections in children and adolescents to GPs also increased sharply last week. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is circulating, with incidence of confirmed cases in  under 5 year olds currently at very high levels.</p><p>Free Flu vaccinations are available for individuals aged 65 and older, certain young children, pregnant women, and those with specific medical conditions. With the Flu season in full swing, it&#8217;s a good idea to check your eligibility and book a vaccination through the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Wales&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/winter-vaccinations/#How"><span>Flu vaccinations in Wales</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Status of main respiratory diseases in Northern Ireland.</strong></h3><p>Public Health Northern Ireland publish a weekly <strong><a href="https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/directorate-public-health/health-protection/respiratory-infections">surveillance report</a></strong> on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and Covid providing an overview of these infections within Northern Ireland.</p><p>Covid activity continues to remain low across most surveillance indicators but there are some signs of increasing activity. Meanwhile, Flu activity continues to rise across surveillance indicators, especially among children, and this increase is happening earlier than in previous influenza seasons. RSV activity increased across all surveillance indicators, particularly among younger children, but is still circulating at moderately low levels.</p><p>The following chart shows the test positivity rates in Northern Ireland for the main respiratory illnesses &#8212; Flu, RSV, and Covid and RSV. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ahNf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ahNf!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ahNf!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ahNf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ahNf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ahNf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png" width="1308" height="1006" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:1308,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:445016,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/i/180692153?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ahNf!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ahNf!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ahNf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ahNf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ed7d472-4813-4d5f-b112-8c2694921058_1308x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The chart shows that the Covid test positivity rate for those patients with respiratory illnesses, marked in blue, has increased slightly this week to 1.6% from 1.2% last week, indicating a low level of Covid activity.</p><p>Flu test positivity, shown in green, keeps climbing which signals an early start to the Flu season. This week, Flu positivity reached 30.2%, up from 20.8% in the prior week. The highest rate was in the 5&#8211;14 age group, with 54.2% testing positive.</p><p>Information about who qualifies for free flu vaccinations and how to schedule an appointment can be found at the provided link.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/flu-vaccine"><span>Flu vaccinations in Northern Ireland</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Covid Levels in Europe and North America.</h3><p>This section looks at the latest data on Covid activity in Europe and North America. While Covid levels have increased in several countries across these regions, they generally remain lower than those observed during earlier waves.</p><p>The following chart shows the latest levels of Covid as measured by monitoring wastewater in a number of European countries that still publish this information.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mtnJb/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1432e9c2-74cb-4028-ae0d-b9eaab1a03d1_1220x892.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a975d411-705b-451e-a114-a6731a77b9a8_1220x1178.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:585,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Once again, Covid levels in wastewater in Europe showed a mixed picture, rising in Germany but stable or falling in other countries.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Trends in Covid activity as measure by wastewater monitoring by European country: Week ending Jan 5, 2024 to Nov 27, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mtnJb/1/" width="730" height="585" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week continues to present a mixed picture for European countries that still publish Covid levels found in wastewater.  In Germany, levels have stopped declining and are now rising, suggesting the recent wave of Covid activity isn&#8217;t over yet. In the Netherlands, France, Denmark and Sweden they&#8217;ve remained steady, whilst the situation in Austria is uncertain due to recent changes in their reporting methods.</p><p>The CDC has now updated U.S. health metrics after the government shutdown confirming that Covid activity has fallen and is at a low level.</p><p>The following chart presents the weekly trend for the national key Covid indicators covering test positivity, wastewater activity levels, percent of emergency department visits due to Covid, and the hospital admission rate, up to November 22, 2025.  It shows low levels of Covid activity at the national level.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yubVA/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bb80b6dd-ff9a-4df8-9309-f47f43d2f02f_1220x912.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5b2a3fdd-4c18-4b56-843a-63e1ad7766b0_1220x1248.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:618,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, all national Covid&amp;nbsp;indicators for the USA indicated low levels of activity.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;The test positivity rate, levels in wastewater sampling (per capita viral load), percent of Emergency Department visits diagnosed with Covid, and hospital admissions per 100,000 people in the USA by week:  Jan 6, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yubVA/1/" width="730" height="618" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Wastewater analysis also shows that Covid levels are low or very low across most US States, as illustrated in the following map. Each state is coloured based on activity levels, ranging from very high (dark red) to very low (light green), with grey indicating no data available. States with increasing activity levels are marked with cross-hatching. </p><p>The interactive map lets you hover over any state to see more details about wastewater viral activity levels. It displays data for states across the country for the week ending November 22, 2025.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gBF5G/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7275408a-1d94-4952-84f1-c6007676bb63_1220x932.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a078aa97-0571-43ad-b8a9-52ab0d002dfc_1220x1234.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:611,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Covid levels as measured by wastewater are low or very low in most states.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Wastewater Viral Activity Levels for Covid by State for week ending Nov 22, 2025. Hover the cursor over a State to find more details.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gBF5G/1/" width="730" height="611" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The interactive map shows that wastewater activity levels rose in 23 states last week, with 45 states at low or very low activity levels.</p><p>The following chart for the USA shows the percentage of Emergency Department visits caused by the main respiratory illnesses&#8212;Covid, Flu, and RSV. It indicates that activity levels for all three viruses are currently low, though Flu cases are starting to increase.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xA9Gp/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/30173daa-76fc-49ee-a438-d36327c69b1a_1220x810.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bf3ac4a5-21f3-4704-a208-a8c4f3237730_1220x1068.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:503,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, the percentage of visits to Emergency Departments in the USA stayed low for COVID but continued to rise for Flu.&amp;nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Percentage of Emergency Department visits due to the main respiratory viruses in the USA: Oct 5, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xA9Gp/1/" width="730" height="503" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Finally, the latest data from Canada shows that Covid wastewater levels are steady at moderate levels, while flu levels are starting to rise albeit from low levels.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9mMOk/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/345a533a-e3f4-4159-8937-6a740181c10d_1220x474.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/92fda6ad-c400-42e9-89df-fac1316f52ea_1220x756.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:374,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;This week, Covid levels in Canada measured in wastewater stayed at moderate levels, while Flu levels are starting to increase.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Covid and Flu A levels in wastewater (copies per millilitre) in Canada by week: Jan 6, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9mMOk/1/" width="730" height="374" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h3>Autumn 2025 Covid Booster campaign.</h3><p>The NHS Autumn Covid booster campaign started on October 1, 2025. This year&#8217;s Autumn vaccination campaign is set to end earlier in England than in previous years, with the majority of vaccinations scheduled to be completed by the end of November. However, outreach efforts to administer vaccines in underserved communities will continue after this date.</p><p>The following chart shows the number of Covid vaccinations given by week for each of the booster campaigns in England.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oBrIH/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f8cd44a2-efbe-4045-a6e0-ea7f08b2f5a0_1220x826.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f17c55e8-d05d-4ea2-99b5-f6d270ae2b43_1220x1100.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:527,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;To date, 4.5 million Covid vaccinations have been given in England as part of the 2025 Autumn booster campaign.&amp;nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Number of doses per week by vaccination campaign in England: Week ending Mar 7, 2022 - Nov 30, 2025&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oBrIH/1/" width="730" height="527" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>In the week ending November 30, there were 86,460 booster doses were administered, down from 112,041 the previous week, bringing the total to 4.49 million doses in the campaign's first eight weeks. </p><p>The next chart in this section provides the latest Covid vaccination coverage by Home Nation for the two main eligible groups.  The chart indicates that while England and Scotland are making solid progress, Wales and Northern Ireland are progressing more slowly.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/S6Q9n/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/66cdc074-02ce-4884-a8ea-fae750e64072_1220x608.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8adfaa4f-8837-407b-b6a1-52c3a126fc08_1220x816.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:410,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The Autumn 2025 booster campaign is going well, although progress in Wales and Northern Ireland has been slower.&amp;nbsp;&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage for each eligible cohort by Home Nation: Up to Nov 30, 2025 for all nations apart from Wales which is up to Nov 27, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/S6Q9n/1/" width="730" height="410" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>This week, NHS England released more details of the Autumn 2025 Covid booster campaign, highlighting the uneven coverage seen across the country. The following chart illustrates the regional difference in coverage for the two main eligible groups.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/etNaS/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f80b0a32-ba81-4231-a437-d358f3b6b6a5_1220x658.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e2a2e4a5-949f-4ca9-a8c6-e6a3d9584331_1220x866.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:437,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 booster coverage is lowest in London for over 75 year olds and immunosuppressed eligible individuals.&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage for each eligible cohort by region in England: Nov 30, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/etNaS/2/" width="730" height="437" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>The chart shows a clear regional difference with London having the lowest coverage for both eligible groups.  This is consistent with the pattern seen in previous campaigns.</p><p>The final chart in this section shows the inequality in coverage by deprivation level and ethnicity.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/W7e2C/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7145a5c9-53c3-4a4c-8b73-2290b90ce796_1220x880.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f2dab304-d4ed-4117-94a0-417b7a597002_1220x1088.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:552,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid booster coverage is lowest in the most deprived areas and in ethnic minorities&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Autumn 2025 Covid vaccination coverage for all eligible individuals in England by deprivation quintile and ethnic group England: Nov 30, 2025.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/W7e2C/2/" width="730" height="552" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><p>Just like in previous campaigns, people in the most deprived areas are far less likely to be vaccinated compared to those in the least deprived areas. Likewise, vaccination rates continue to be much lower among individuals from ethnic minority groups.</p><h3>In conclusion</h3><p>Although the amount of data currently being published is reduced, the information available for all home nations show that Covid activity is relatively low. However Flu activity is rising in all home nations indicating an early start to the Winter Flu season.</p><p>Covid activity in Europe is mostly declining or holding steady, although it&#8217;s on the rise in Germany. In the USA, activity levels remain low.</p><p>As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://bhawkins3.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Seeing The Forest for the Trees! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4><em>Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence</em></h4><p>Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.</p><p></p><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>