Covid Situation Report: Mar 28, 2024
Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction.
This report is part of a weekly series that I will publish during the Winter 2023 / Spring 2024 season to provide an overview of the current Covid situation in England and its regions. I use a standard set of interactive charts to present the data. For those who want more detail I do a deeper dive on topics of interest each week. This week, I look at the most recent data on Covid variants.
Summary.
The news this week continues to be positive, with all Covid metrics indicating that the winter surge is over. However, Covid has not completely disappeared, as we are still seeing stable, albeit low, levels of hospital admissions.
The positivity rate for Covid and Flu fell this week and are at low levels
Weekly hospital admission rates for Covid and Flu also fell and are at low levels.
Weekly admission rates fell across all ages although remain highest in the oldest age groups.
The latest daily Covid hospital admissions and number of occupied beds fell confirming the trend seen in the other metrics.
The Juno variant continues to dominate and there are no signs of any new variants emerging that could lead to a surge in Covid cases.
The Spring 2024 booster campaign is due to start in April for people aged 75 years and over, those in care homes, and those aged 6 months and over with a weakened immune system.
A final reminder that the risk of hospitalisation for those infected rises markedly with age, with individuals 75 and older having a 1 in 30 chance of being admitted to the hospital upon infection.
When we have symptoms of a respiratory illness like COVID-19, we should do our best to limit our contact with other people, especially those who are more at risk. This will help to keep rates low and protect ourselves and those around us.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England.
The chart below displays the positivity rates for the primary respiratory diseases in England, namely Flu, Covid, RSV, and Rhinovirus.
This week saw a decrease in the positivity rate for both Flu, which dropped by 29%, and Covid, which fell by 10%, while the rate for RSV remained the same.
The following chart shows hospital admissions per 100,000 people in England for the main respiratory diseases.
Hospital admission rates for flu have decreased by 34% weekly, while Covid and RSV admission rates have remained stable and relatively low over the past three weeks.
The following panel chart shows the weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 by age for England. Each panel represents one age group and the title and line are colour coded. The grey lines show all of the other age groups to provide context. The good news is that hospital admission rates continue to fall for all age groups.
The charts shows clearly the age difference for hospital admissions with almost all admissions being over 75 years old. Hover your cursor over one of the chart lines to display the admission rates for all charts.
The positivity rates and weekly hospital admissions for Flu and Covid have fallen to relatively low levels. It is more probable that Covid-like symptoms may indicate a Rhinovirus infection rather than Covid.
Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy.
This section looks in more detail at the latest daily data on Covid for hospitals in England. When reviewing the dashboards, it is important to consider that as the absolute numbers decrease, the weekly percentage change in the data may seem disproportionately large.
The following dashboard of key Covid metrics saw daily hospital admissions and beds occupied by Covid patients continued to fall.
The next dashboard gives the Covid hospital admissions per 100,000 by region.
The hospital admission rates for most regions fell particularly in the Midlands. Once again, the daily hospital admissions for Covid are in line with the data presented in previous section.
Covid variants.
In early December 2023, JN.1, also referred to as the 'Juno' variant, was classified as a variant of concern owing to its rising sequence prevalence both in the UK and globally. The following chart shows how quickly Juno became the dominant variant in the UK.
The chart indicates that currently, there are no new Covid variants detected in the sequenced data. The emergence of new variants frequently leads to surges in Covid cases, so this is good news.
In conclusion
The prevalence of Covid and Flu continues to fall and remain low as do hospital admissions.
There are no new Covid variants being detected to drive a surge in Covid cases.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
How much testing are hospitals doing? What are the current sources of data on Covid prevalence in the UK.
Thank you for sharing this report. It is positive news at this point. I wonder how quickly you would be aware of further variants of concern if and when they emerge?